Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Some Nice Typical Days Ahead!

Good afternoon, everyone! After all the flooding the past few days, and the snow yesterday, our weather pattern is finally calming down, at least for a few days. While some areas in central Indiana "missed out" on the snow, scattered areas across the state did pick up decent accumulation. You can also see the snowcover on the satellite image today:


Sunshine is in full force this afternoon. Strange to see the sun!! I know it's chilly, but at least the winds are very light! If your heading out this evening, expect temps to drop quickly by sunset under clear skies.
Tomorrow through Saturday will be a nice period of weather, with mostly sunny skies, and middle-upper 40's. Chilly mornings in the 20's should be expected. Very seasonable for early December. We may exceed 50 on Saturday!

Changes come in for Sunday. Showers will spread from west to east across the Hoosier state, mainly the second half of the day. It will be a chilly rain. Here is a look at this system on the models:

Sunday Afternoon:


Sunday Evening/Night:


After this system exits, things get interesting!!! A break-out of arctic air is going to invade the area next week, along with the potential of a cut-off low bringing snow to some areas. This can mean highs struggling to reach freezing for a day or two, and lows in the teens!! Take a look:


I also mentioned the slight chance of a cut-off low. Still too early to pinpoint, so I will have more on that in the coming days. Want more arctic air?? Well another warm-up will commence late next week, ahead of another system. It is behind that system that a MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK could hit a good chunk of the country:


That may hit sometime next weekend, around the 10th. Overall, the pattern is loaded with some of the arctic, and of course this can lead to snow if a storm comes at the right time.

By the way..... it is the last day of Hurricane Season 2011! That is all for now, have a great rest of your day!

Monday, November 28, 2011

Latest Snow Thoughts!

Good evening! Thanks for checking into the blog! I so much appreciate it! We have some big changes taking place over the next 24 hours, because this time tomorrow night we will be seeing heavy snowfall falling in some areas! To make the forecast clear, here is the timeline of weather, and the changes that will be taking place over the next several hours:


Weather Headlines........
-Cold Rain tonight through noon tomorrow.


-Rain may mix with sleet/snow at times by middle afternoon tomorrow/falling temperatures.


-Wintry mix with snow/rain for the evening commute.


-ALL SNOW after 6-7 tomorrow evening.


-1-2" or so in Indy by Wednesday morning.


Things to keep in mind.... The models were too warm for highs today, as they were predicting middle-upper 40's today. Instead many areas stayed in the 30's. This is important as models may a little late on the rain to snow transition, and if it changes earlier than thought, we will be dealing with higher totals. Upper-level lows are known to bring surprises at times. Honestly, I think we will be on the higher end of snowfall that the local stations are predicting. WHY? Well, keep in mind that many areas in western KY and TN are already seeing 1"+ hour snowfall rates, and many areas there got snow on the ground just during the daylight hours, with temps that were above freezing. If we see those same heavy rates of snow, then it will have no trouble sticking, especially considering this will be at night. I am going to stick to my forecast for 1-2", maybe 3" for Indy, with 4"+ in notheastern Indiana. 


Before I go, check out the snow today in Jackson, TN:


It will be looking similar around here this time tomorrow! :) I will be following model trends CLOSELY tomorrow, for any possible changes to the forecast. It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow for sure!! I will have updates as needed. Have a great night everyone!

First Accumulating Snow Of The Season Possible For Some Tomorrow night!

Good afternoon! Hope everyone is having a great Monday so far! The weather out there continues to be miserable, with rain and temps in the upper 30's! Downright miserable to say the least!! Rains will pick up in intensity this evening and overnight. Here is where you can track these rains:


Things get very interesting tomorrow!!! Here is your detailed timeline of when the many changes will be taking place:

-Morning: Just a cold rain.

-Noon-3pm: Falling temps, rain, possibly mixing with sleet/big snowflakes.

-3pm-6pm: Wintry mix rain/sleet/wet snowflakes. Falling temps/mid 30's.

6pm- Midnight: Burst of heavy snow!


This has been a tough system to track, and still is! Here is the ETA model snowfall forecast:

Totals: At this point, it appears 1-2" of wet snow for the Indy metro. Areas around Kokomo, Lafayette, Muncie could see 2-3" of heavy, wet snow. Areas south of Indy could see a slushy 1/2"-1". Again, I'm sure changes will still be made to those totals, so please check back! I will have another update here in an hour or so. Have a great evening! STAY TUNED!

Rain Today... SNOW On The Way!!!!

Good morning! Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving weekend. We are in  the midst of a dynamic storm system, that is dumping accumulating snow in Mississippi and Tennessee today!! This is all part of a system that will likely bring accumulating snows our way!


For now.. It's all about the cold rain!! Highs today will be in the lower 40's. Rain will be moving back in this afternoon, and it could be heavy by overnight. Here is where you can track the rain:


Things get very interesting tomorrow!!!!!!! Very heavy rains will be falling Tuesday morning, however that may change by the afternoon. As the storms system deepens and moves through, dynamic cooling will take place middle/late afternoon, with falling temps and a wintry mix. This now looks to be ALL SNOW by Tuesday night.

 Keep in mind there will be tons of moisture around, so the snow may come down heavy at times. Even though the ground is warm and wet, this may not effect the amounts much, because if the snows come down heavy enough, it will be able to stick with no problem. Several inches may accumulate from Indy northward!! Slick roads are possible for the Wednesday am commute. The HPC has placed areas from Indy northward in the slight risk for 4"+:

I want to wait for more model runs before putting out my official snowfall map. Again, this forecast can still change. I will have more on this coming up this afternoon. Have a great Monday.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Rain And Accumulating Snow Over The Next Few Days!

Good morning everyone!! Boy, what a nasty way to start a Sunday! We heave heavy rains and falling temps, and that will be the story all day long! You can track the rain here:

Parts of western Indiana could see it mix with snow tonight, but no accumulation expected. Monday will be another soaker across the Hoosier state, with breezy and chilly conditions! It is Tuesday that the colder air starts funneling in, and by Tuesday evening-Wednesday morning, accumulating snow is possible, as we get in the deformation zone. This is going to be very interesting, as we could see a several hour period of moderate snowfall rates, and because this will be at night, slick roads will be very possible for the Wednesday morning commute! Here is the set-up:
Several inches could fall from Indy northward, with as much as 6" in northern Indiana!! Totals will be much lighter southwest of Indy. It does appear possible that a 1-3" or even a 2-4" band of heavy, wet snow will fall from Indy northward. It will be a beautiful snowman making snow/stick on the trees kind of snow!! I'm sure if your a snow lover reading this, your getting pretty excited right now! So am I!! :) This CAN and WILL change, so please stay tuned!! I going to be brave and issue my "first call" on snowfall accumulation this afternoon. Have a great Sunday and check back for more updates!

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Tricky Forecast!!

Good evening! Hope everyone had a great Saturday. The forecast continues to be a tricky one over the next few days! Let's get down to business.....


I'm going to split this forecast in half. First I will discuss the rain chances with the system, then I will be discussing the snow part of the system.


The rainy side: Certainly no snow tonight! Temps are still well in the 60's! Rains are moving in from west to east tonight, and could become heavy. The rain showers will continue tomorrow, a cold rain at that, as our temps really tumble into the upper 40's. Not a great day for those traveling home from their destinations. To put it simply, rains will continue through Tuesday! Check out these rain totals expected, WOW!!

It appears anywhere between 3-4" of rain across the entire Hoosier state by Tuesday night. Flooding will be a real possibility, as the NWS has already issued a flood watch for areas near the Ohio River.


The snow part: First off, while we have rain Monday, areas across the Tennessee Valley will be seeing snow!! How is that possible? Well this is one rare wild set-up with a cut-off low. Check this out:

Yep, folks down across Kentucky and Tennessee will be enjoying some snowfall! The reason behind that is because under the low, there is a pool of cold air, called "dynamic cooling" and causes the rain to change to snow. We will have a SE flow off the low for Monday, hence just too warm for snow. But don't give up all you snow lovers!! We still have a chance of snow here in the forecast for Tuesday night. After another day of cold rain for Tuesday, colder air will be working in for Tuesday evening. A deformation zone will be swinging into the area at that time. BIG question remains, will the cold air hit in time to see a period of snow?? It's certainly possible, but I think the best chance of putting accumulations on the ground would be off to our northeast. Still needs to be watched CLOSELY. Accuweather continues to outline central and northern Indiana with the chance of heavy,wet snow Tuesday night:



Still a lot of uncertainties in this forecast! I will have more updates tomorrow. Have a great night!

More Flooding Potential Next Few Days!

Good morning! Another great looking start, however we have rain on the way. Here is the latest webcam from Indy, showing the great weather out there!
Live Camera from Clinton Young ES, Indianapolis, IN 46227


Get out there and enjoy it! Rain will move in by the evening, and continue off/on all the way through Tuesday, with another 2-3" of  rain. Still can't rule out a change to snow Tuesday night, but rain looks to be more dominant. Here is the HPC rainfall accumulation over the next several days:



There are likely to be more high water issues from this! Well I'm going to go out and enjoy the dirtbike today while the weather is nice! More updates later. Have a great day!

Friday, November 25, 2011

Some Changes To Weekend Forecast- Latest On Next Week's Tricky Forecast

Good evening, everyone! Hope everyone had a great day, and enjoyed this beautiful day that it turned out to be! Highs topped out in the lower-middle 60's, just a few shy of the record! The weekend system is slowing down, so we should squeeze in another great day tomorrow, then beyond that the forecast is nothing short of, well, confusing!


Here is your Saturday weather planner...

Increasing clouds. Breezy.


Morning: 45-55.


Afternoon: 58-62.


Enjoy it, because the forecast goes cold and very unsettled beyond tomorrow. Rain will be on the increase from west to east Saturday night. Here is the latest timing:


Sunday Morning:




Rain moving in. 


Sunday Afternoon:



Cold rain continues. Changes to snow from west to east by late evening, then snow showers for Sunday night.


Next Week: Now that the weather system has entered the United States, a "trend" should be noticed in the models over the next couple days. Here is the model breakdown:


GFS/NAM: Now on board with developing a low to our southeast, bring wintry weather our way Monday-Tuesday:
Day 4 Fronts and Pressures






This set-up would put a higher chance of putting snow on the ground for us. Not set in stone at all yet. IF the air would be cold enough for snow, check out the snow amounts the GFS shows:



Please take that with a grain of salt!! Don't focus on totals yet. This isn't even a set-in-stone set-up yet.


The foreign models show the low cutting off way down in the southern states, which that result would be mostly light rain for us. So next week is still WAY up in the air at this point, but I think I will have a better idea by tomorrow afternoon. Accumulating snows certainly *could* happen, especially if the GFS is right. Who knows, by tomorrow the models may have a totally different set-up. Mother nature loves to confuse us! :)


I will have another full update tomorrow morning, and the latest model analysis on next week's forecast set-up. All I can say is stay tuned!!

Accumulating Snow Looking More And More Possible Monday-Tuesday!! :D

Good afternoon. While we are enjoying a great day outdoors, I am watching the potential for accumulating snow early next week. The latest runs have got me so excited over this!!!


Keep in mind, the snow showers for Sunday will be light. It is when the front stalls out to our east, a low moves up the front, with cold air in place here, perfect recipe for accumulating snow and slick roads late Monday and especially overnight Monday and Tuesday. Check out this set-up:


Notice that I circled the area where the best chance of snow would be. Check out all that moisture:

IF that were to be correct, we would talking well, near 10" of snow!!! Not saying this will happen, and things are still subject to change. Please stay tuned, as this has the potential to be a major early season snowstorm. More updates later today that you won't want to miss!

Tricky Forecast

Good morning! A gorgeous start to the day out there, as we finally got the sunshine back! While we have a tricky forecast over the next few days, today is anything but tricky, with ample sun and mild temps this afternoon in the lower 60's. ENJOY! 


Changes begin tomorrow. A system in the Plains states will be moving in. The good news is that the day will be mainly dry, as the showers don't arrive until the evening. Here is the latest timing and analysis from the GFS model:


Saturday overnight:



Rain moving in during this time, some moderate-heavy.


Sunday Morning:



Rain east, turning into a mix west of I-65.


Sunday afternoon/evening:



Snow showers take over.


I wouldn't rule out a quick dusting in areas that see heavier bands set-up. Now next week is a crazy forecast that is WAY up in the air at this point!!!! We could see anything from 10" of snow, to no snow at all, or just some rain. LOTS of UNCERTAINTIES in the models that need to be figured out quick!! Here are all the great variables that could take place:


1) Wave forms along front just to our east Monday, bringing us several inches of wet snow.


2) The system progressively moves off to the east, with us drying out for early week.


3) Cut-off low forms in the southeastern U.S. not affecting our weather.


Notice the Canadian model puts the cut-off low right over us, with higher chances of snow:



The differences are extreme, and that is why this needs to be watched very carefully!! I will have more updates later today. Have a great Black Friday everyone!

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Some Snow Potential Next Week And Beyond.

Good evening! Thanks for checking in! Hope everyone has had a blessed Thanksgiving! Before I get the the snowy talk of the blog, let's talk about the current weather. Well, I have been bugged the past couple days of people wondering where the sunshine is that I predicted! :) Well we FINALLY saw the sun towards sunset, and sun and mild temps are a given for tomorrow! (I'm making a real promise on that one, so if it's still overcast tomorrow morning, I give you all rights to  slap me! Hehe alright let's get to you shopping forecast, for those ready to take on a great fight of shoppers at midnight:


Midnight-6am:

Starry and dry. 36-41.


Black Friday:

Morning: Upper 40s/low 50s.


Afternoon: Upper 50's/low 60s.


Be sure to enjoy it, because it's a one and only deal. Changes come for the second half of the holiday weekend. On Saturday, rains will begin to move in for the second part of the day. Here is the GFS timing:


Saturday Evening:



Rain moving into western Indiana.


Saturday Late Evening:



Rain right over us:


Sunday Morning:



Temps falling. rain switching over to a mix.


Sunday Afternoon:



Snow showers/flurries. Windy and cold!!!


Here is a look at that cold air diving in for Sunday/Monday:



The GFS even paints enough to coat some rooftops for Sunday evening!! Next week still has a lot of uncertainties to be solved, and don't be surprised to see last-minute changes to the forecast. Here are two possible outcomes for the Sunday-Tuesday period:


1) Front moves through early Sunday with rain to snow showers/then drying out for the work week.


2) Front moves through early Sunday/with snow showers that last through Tuesday.


Either way, we are still looking at snow showers around here to end the Holiday weekend! I will be sure to keep an eye on this folks.


Dec. 2-3 Winter Storm? Some of the models now try to form a low across southeast KY for next Friday/Saturday, potentially throwing our first accumulating snow our way. To me, the set-up is perfect, with a blast of cold air building in ahead of the storm, and hence we could be talking snow. Take a look at the cold air building for Friday, December 2nd:



Another thing of interest, the NAO (North America Oscillation) is finally showing signs of going negative, and the PNA staying positive. This would allow the system to be suppressed to the south, keeping it all snow for us. This would acually be the same time-frame that we saw our first snow last year. For snow lovers out there, don't get excited about this yet, as things are subject to change with this forecast. Nevertheless, certainly looking wintry over the next several weeks.


Have a great evening, and be sure to check back tomorrow for more updates on weather across the Hoosier state! 

The Clouds That Won't Leave!!

Satellite Radar

Based on latest trends, fog and low clouds have thickened across much of the Ohio Valley. It appears that clouds and fog will continue all day long, with highs nearing 50. By tonight, there should be plenty of mixing taking place to finally break up these clouds, as tomorrow looks to be sunny and gorgeous, with highs in the 60's.


More updates through the day. Have a great Thanksgiving!

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Stubborn Clouds!

Clouds continue to linger, as an inversion has developed! This caused us to stay gloomy all day, with temps that didn't get pass the middle 40s today! The cloud deck continues to linger, and needs to be watched as this could linger for Thanksgiving, and have major effects on the forecast. Areas that clear out overnight will see dense fog, with only minor fog issues where clouds stay intact. I am still holding on to a sunny forecast tomorrow, but keeping my fingers crossed! I will be updating again tomorrow morning, so don't  be surprised to see me change the forecast to cooler and cloudier weather for tomorrow. By the way, the blog will be the place to be through the Thanksgiving weekend as I will be having as much as 2-3 updates each day through Sunday! 


Have a great night, and don't forget to check back in tomorrow morning!

Stubborn Clouds!

Clouds continue to linger, as an inversion has developed! This caused us to stay gloomy all day, with temps that didn't get passed the middle 40s today! The cloud deck continues to linger, and needs to be watched as this could linger for Thanksgiving, and have major effects on the forecast. Areas that clear out overnight will see dense fog, with only minor fog issues where clouds stay intact. I am still holding on to a sunny forecast tomorrow, but keeping my fingers crossed! I will be updating again tomorrow morning, so don't  be surprised to see me change the forecast to cooler and cloudier weather for tomorrow. By the way, the blog will be the place to be as I will be having as much as 2-3 updates each day through Sunday! 


Have a great night, and don't forget to check back in tomorrow morning!

Stubborn Clouds!

Clouds continue to linger, as an inversion has developed! This caused us to stay gloomy all day, with temps that didn't get passed the middle 40s today! The cloud deck continues to linger, and needs to be watched as this could linger for Thanksgiving, and have major effects on the forecast. Areas that clear out overnight will see dense fog, with only minor fog issues where clouds stay intact. I am still holding on to a sunny forecast tomorrow, but keeping my fingers crossed! I will be updating again tomorrow morning, so don't  be surprised to see me change the forecast to cooler and cloudier weather for tomorrow. By the way, the blog will be the place to be as I will be having as much as 2-3 updates each day through Sunday! 


Have a great night, and don't forget to check back in tomorrow morning!

Stretch Of Great Weather Just In Time For Thanksgiving!


Good afternoon! Hope everyone is having a great Thanksgiving(Eve)! I do want to apologize on today's forecast as I thought the clouds would be able to break way earlier. The sunshine is coming, but it is just taking its time to arrive! Here is the latest look at satellite radar:

Satellite Radar

Sunshine should begin to peek through by 3-4pm, as skies continue to clear out. Looking much brighter and warmer for Thanksgiving!  Here is your Thanksgiving forecast timeline:

Thanksgiving Forecast

Lots of sunshine!!

9am: 37

Noon: 49

5pm: 59

Black Friday will be even better, with ample sunshine and middle 60's!! Be sure to get in on those great deals out there!

A powerhouse system will move in this weekend. Most of Saturday should stay dry, as the warmth continues. It is Saturday night through Sunday that heavy rains fall, with falling temps.
Day 3 Fronts and Pressures
Next week still looks interesting with the rains transitioning to snow showers Sunday night through Tuesday. Then, it appears a cut-off low will move in, with more snow flake action through mid-week.
That is all for today, I will have more updates throughout the Holiday weekend! Have a great evening!

Travel Day Forecast

After that gloomy and soggy Tuesday, high pressure is back into control over the next few days. This means sunshine and milder weather for us over the next few days. Here is today's travel forecast across the country:

For better details, here is the breakdown of weather across different sections of the country:

-East: (Boston, NYC, Philidelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington D.C, etc.:
Wet and unsettled for all the east coast today and tomorrow. Big cities will be dealing with high winds and rainfall, likely prompting delays.

-Midwest/Plains: All of the country's mid-section will be great for traveling today and tomorrow. Lots of sunshine with slightly above normal temps. Shouldn't have any problems here in Indy International,  or any airports all across the midwest.

-South/southwest: Places from Montgomery, Alabama to Atlanta eastward will have to deal with some showers today. Areas towards Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee westward look fine today.

-West: The west will be another potential trouble spot, mainly for Oregon and Washington, with valley rains and mountain snows. Areas like San Francisco, LA, Salt Lake City, Denver, Cheyenne, etc will be looking great today.

More updates later. Have a good one!

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

A Gorgeous Stretch On The Way - Snow and Cold Next Week!!

Good afternoon! Thanks for checking in, on another gloomy day with soaking rains. The good news is that these rains are going to move out tonight, and behind it we will enjoy a few very nice days with warm temps, before an interesting storm this weekend that could have cold and snowy days to follow by early next week! If you don't like snow, just read the first half of the blog! :)

1) Evening Rain Chances:

Before we get to enjoy the nice weather, we still have to deal with rain for the rest of the evening. The good news is that drier air is feeding into the system, and shutting off the heavy rain. Final rain totals will still range from 1-2" for many. Here is radar to track these showers:


Spectacular For Travel Day-Black Friday:

 Sunshine will be back in full force tomorrow, with temps near average in the lower 50's, however if your travels take you east, you will still have to deal with some rain. Here is your travel forecast for tomorrow:


Thanksgiving will be FANTASTIC! It will be one of the warmest one's in quite some time with temps flirting with 60 degrees! Black Friday will also be another spectacular day with southwest winds pushing our temps well into the 60's! Enjoy for sure because we are about to talk cold and snow chances!

Weekend Storm:
Another storm system will be working towards the area this weekend. However latest trends show that we may be able to keep much of Saturday dry with our warm streak continuing. However, Saturday night will feature heavy rains and potential storms moving into the Hoosier state.


Temps will begin to fall off late Sunday, as a cold rain continues. Now I will be talking about the SNOW chances below:

Cut-off low = snow chances next week:

Based on midday model data, I am this close to saying we could see 1-2" of accumulating snow next week!!! The models really support this idea and show very cold air. It is rare that there is so much agreement like this so early. We will be seeing a cut-off low spinning over the area for several days, meaning daily snow chances and temps only near freezing for highs by Tuesday and Wednesday!! Can I say brr?? I try to not get excited until we get closer, but it is looking more and more likely. Here is the model breakdown of this cut-off low:


 Here is a look at the cold air the models show:


So in summary........

-Cold rain Sunday night gradually switches over to snow Monday.

-On and off snow showers continue Tuesday and Wednesday, with some accumulation possible. Temps will continue to go downhill each day next week, with mid 30s Tuesday dropping to the freezing mark for highs by Wednesday!

If that does occur, that should get us all in the Holiday spirit for sure!!

Have a great evening, and stay tuned!

Monday, November 21, 2011

Wet, then warm and nice, wet again, then snow?

Good afternoon! Hope everyone is having a great Monday so far! Just warning you.. this is going to be a mighty long blog post, with a look at the interesting pattern setting up! Here we go...

1) The rain chances:

So far today, we have seen just some pesky drizzle, along with low clouds and chilly temps. However, this will change tomorrow as heavy rains pour into the area, and continue all day tomorrow. Here is the latest timing and amounts:

Tomorrow morning:


Rain moves in.

Tuesday afternoon:


Heavy, steady downpours, storms southeast.

While most of the state shouldn't see the severe storms, areas of far southeastern Indiana will have the chance of some tomorrow afternoon, as temps soar into the 70's down there.


The southern half of the state has also been highlighted in the excessive rainfall possibility. This means you need to watch for nearby creeks, streams over-running their banks, along with low-land flooding risk.


When all is said and done early Wednesday, expect a good 1.50-2" in the Indy metro, with as much as 3" in southern Indiana, where the ground is already water-logged!


2) Gorgeous stretch for Travel Day, Turkey Day, and Black Friday:

Clouds and rain early Wednesday will give way to lots of sunshine and mild temps for Wednesday afternoon. That is great news for all those travelers! Here is the travel Wednesday forecast for the U.S:

Lots of sunshine for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, with unseasonably warm temps! Temps will flirt with 60!! Make some outdoor plans for sure!

3) Big changes this weekend and beyond:

Despite a gorgeous first half of the Holiday weekend, big-time changes roll in this weekend. On Saturday, we will see warm temps, along with the chance of severe weather and heavy rain by the afternoon. By Sunday, the low begins to shift east, and temps will plummet with more rain around!

That is an interesting set-up, and one that could switch the rain over to snow Sunday night.

It gets even more interesting early next week, with the low slowly moving over the area, with cold air funneling in. Notice on the map above, how far south the cold air penetrates early next week! We are likely to see some snowfall on Monday, with yes, some light accumulation being possible. Here is a look at this on the GFS model:
Monday November 28:

This is a type of set-up that would allow us to see our first measurable snow! Keep in mind that this is still a week out, so expect changes in that forecast over the next few days, just highlighting that we could get perhaps our first real snowfall.

For more weather updates, be sure to "like" my weather page!
http://www.facebook.com/#!/Nathanlovesweather4
Have a great evening, and stay tuned!