Sunday, December 25, 2011

Merry Christmas Everyone - Get Ready for A Sticking Snow On Tuesday :D

Merry Christmas everyone! Here is hoping everyone has a great day with family, friends, and remembering that Jesus was born on this day, in Bethlehem! It's going to be a great day out there! Sunshine, to go along with temps in the upper 40's. One drawback today.. the winds are up, and will get breezier through the day!


Snow On The Way! A system will build in tomorrow night, beginning as rain, but ingredients are coming together to produce a swath of snowfall that will build in prior to Tuesday daybreak, and should continue through mid-day Tuesday, with the first widespread snowfall of the season! :) Don't get me wrong... this will be a light snow event. Here is a look at this.....

Accumulations: It appears a 1-2" band is very possible across central parts of the state, with southern and northern areas getting under 1". Here is my "first" call on snow:

                   Snow Potential Monday night - Tuesday pm.

Snow lovers, did that make your day? It sure made mine! This forecast can still change, but I am feeling fairly confident on this. More updates this evening, enjoy your Christmas everyone!

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Merry Christmas Eve!!


Merry Christmas Eve everyone! Don't know about you, but it doesn't seem like Christmas! I guess part of that would be due to the warm temps all month long, and having no snow on the ground this December! In fact, this is the first December since 1941 that there has been under 1" of snow. We are already about 6" below normal for the winter season!


Ha enough of that! If you are heading out to the Christmas Eve Services and such, expect a star-light sky tonight, along with chilly temps in the 30's. For our Christmas Day, expect to see the sunshine again, the only change will be the winds getting gusty by the afternoon. Highs should hit the upper 40's.


It still appears a strong system will head in Monday night and Tuesday, bringing rain AND snow! Areas northwest of Indy could pick up a slushy inch during this time.


Need a good laugh? Check out this video of the automated voice from the NWS singing "Deck The Halls." I couldn't stop laughing!!!!






If you want to keep track Santa as he travels across the nation tonight, be sure to to check out NORAD! Here is the link: http://www.noradsanta.org/en/



Hope everyone has a great Christmas with all their families, and remember the reason why we celebrate... Jesus' Birth!!


Merry Christmas Eve!!


Merry Christmas Eve everyone! We have nothing to complain about as far as the weather is concerned. Lots of sunshine is expected today, along with temperatures in the middle 40's. If you have those last-minute errands to get done, the weather will certainly cooperate!

If you are headed out to the many Christmas Eve services tonight, you can expect temperatures to drop off quickly through the 30's, under a star-light sky! 

It appears a decent storm will move in Monday night through Tuesday, bringing both rain and snow to the picture.

Monday night: Mostly rain. Could see a wintry mix set-in for some by daybreak Tuesday.


Tuesday: We may see things change from a wintry mix to all snow, depending on your location. (mainly between 7am and noon Tuesday)

In Summary: Because this will be a closed low, not much cold air will be available. Rain to snow set-ups are a pain to forecast, as the rain/snow changeover hardly ever occurs when expected! Right now, don't be expecting this to amount to much. If I were to give it a stab, I wouldn't rule out enough to coat the cars/rooftop/elevated surfaces Tuesday morning. 

More updates later today, (or tomorrow, depending on how you look at it). Have a blessed Christmas Eve everyone!

Friday, December 23, 2011

Nice Christmas Weekend - A Little Snow Next Week??

12/23 7:30...Good evening! The forecast for the Holiday weekend looks absolutely terrific! Lots of sunshine, to go along with mild temps in the middle 40's! Things will get windy, especially by Sunday. 



Things get a bit more interesting beyond Christmas Day. The system that was stuck in the southwest will move our way by Monday evening, spreading rain the area. However, some of the models change us to all snow late Monday night into Tuesday. Here is the latest GFS:




Personally, I think the models are way too far south with the 32 degree line, as there is just not much cold air. Still, I think there will be a period of snowfall as the storm exits, with a very minor accumulation possible. So in summary.....


-Rains build in Monday night, heavy at times


-Rain turns to wintry mix by early morning Tuesday


-A wintry mix or all snow is possible Tuesday morning, as the system exits.


-Areas northwest of Indy could get a slushy inch or so.


I will continue to track this over the Holiday weekend! More updates tomorrow. Have a great night!

Where's Winter At??

Where's winter at? We are 1 degree shy of the 10th warmest December on record, and to go along with it, NO snow!! :( What a bummer of a month this has been for desperate snow-lovers out there! Check out the current snow cover map above, much of the central and eastern U.S. has had little to NO snowfall yet this year! What a change from last year!

JetsteramsWhy hasn't winter materialized yet? Without the "Greenland Block" the polar jet remains way north of us, keeping all the arctic air locked up! The southern stream remains active, but even with storms going south of us, it has been way too warm for any type of winter storms. 

What happens from here? Well, most likely, more of the same! The CPC is calling for a mild January, with above normal precipitation. This also will have a big impact on the total snowfall for the winter season! My prediction was between 30-35" back in October, and wow, we may be lucky to get 20" for the season total! The average is 27"! I don't see any changes that point to any arctic blasts over the next month! 

Back to the short-term, the weather will be great for Santa coming to town! Lots of sunshine expected, with high temps in the middle 40's all weekend. The only problem will be the lack of snow for Santa's sleigh!

If you would like to keep track of Santa as he travels across the nation, be sure to check out this link from NORAD: http://www.noradsanta.org/en/index.html




So no white Christmas this year, but that's not what matters! What matters is being with family, and remembering Jesus is the reason why we celebrate! Merry Christmas! 

Some Sunshine Possible Today - Christmas Weekend Forecast

                   December 23rd....9am


Good morning! Nate's Weather Blog is back!!!!!!!! I decided to keep this blog, and I will delete my other one now!! Indecisive, right? :) Ha! Ok now to the weather.........
National Infrared SatelliteClouds will FINALLY break way for some sunshine this afternoon! Highs will be near 40 degrees. 




Day 4 Fronts and PressuresFor both Christmas Eve and Day, LOTS of sunshine in the forecast, and temperatures in the middle 40's. Doesn't get much better than that!
Have a great day, and check back for more updates!

Monday, December 19, 2011

This Blog Will Be Deleted - CHECK OUT MY NEW BLOG!

Good evening! This is my last post on Nate's Weather Blog! I have developed a new blog, Indiana Weather Center! Here is the link to check it out!..
http://indianaweathercenter.wordpress.com/

Just like this blog, I will update it EVERY day, with your latest forecast! Be sure to tell others to head over to my new site, as this blog will be deleted soon. 

Will It Be A White Christmas?

Good evening! Still tracking the weekend system closely! It appears a system will move through Saturday, perhaps a mix for some changing to all snow by Christmas Eve afternoon and evening. You can see this well on the DGEX: (the one on the left is Saturday morning, the one on the right is for the afternoon)




If that run were to verify, it could put down enough snow to make a white Christmas! Why don't I show you more model runs that are on the snowy train for Christmas weekend...
     

That model is spitting out some accumulations during this time. No, I am not saying it will be a white Christmas, but yes, the chances are still there! #keepthehopealive! :) 


I will have the latest in the morning! Have a great night!


Rain Update - January Outlook!

Rain Update: The rain is getting closer, near the Indiana/Illinois state line. Rain should arrive in the Indy metro by 3pm.





Screen shot 2011-12-16 at 8.55.58 AMJanuary Outlook: The latest January outlook from the CPC calls for above-normal temperatures..yet again! We should also see above average precipitation. I still think we will see a nice cool-down coming by the middle of January, with some potential big storms to bring us nice shots of snowfall. Still not looking like the harsh winter I was predicting earlier! We shall see.

Good morning! Thanks for stopping by the blog for your latest forecast! We have a rather soggy day shaping up, as rains will increase from west to east today! Don't let rainy days and Mondays get you down! :)






It will not be a washout of a day, just expect rain chances to increase as the day goes on! Temperatures will remain steady today. Be sure to check the radar before you head out!



Tomorrow and Wednesday will feature more of the same..gloomy and wet!! At least it won't be a real cold rain, as temperatures will be in the upper 40's. By time the rain exits Wednesday afternoon, an inch or more is possible:



Looking Ahead.... There is a LOT of uncertainty in the forecast Friday and beyond. It appears several disturbances will be moving through, and it will be tough to time out. At this point, a white Christmas is possible! :) It looks like one of those disturbances will move in Saturday, with snow showers likely, as a colder air mass is moving in during this time. This could put down enough snow to give us a white Christmas, but of course, it has to be cold enough! Anyway, #keepthehopealive! 


More updates as needed. Have a great day everyone!

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Hope You Enjoyed Today's Weather - Changes On The Way!

Good evening! Hope everyone had a great Sunday, and was able to get outdoors! Temps went well above average today - upper 40's with all that sunshine! I was lucky enough to adventure around the French Lick Hotel and the West Baden Dome today! It's definately a site to see! You can see the big tree at the West Baden Dome on the left. 


Now to the weather, clouds are increasing tonight as the next weather system moves in. The good news is that it will be warmer, in the middle 30's. It should stay dry through noon tomorrow.
Midwest US Satellite and Radar

Here is a breakdown of  Monday's rain chances......


6am-10am: 20% chance (sprinkles)


10am-2pm: 40% rain chance


2pm-6pm: 60% rain likely


You can expect a soggy day Tuesday, then more scattered rain by Wednesday. If you have indoor things to take care of the next few days, maybe such as wrapping presents, it will be a great time to do it! Temperatures will remain in the middle-upper 40's for highs. By Wednesday afternoon, an inch or so of rain will have fallen.



Looking ahead to Christmas weekend, we may have a couple of disturbances bring a light wintry mix, but temperatures will likely be too warm for a white Christmas this year! :( 


I will have the latest on rain chances and an update on Christmas weekend's weather tomorrow morning. Have a great night!

A Nice Sunday - Get Ready For Days Of Rain!!

Good morning!! We have a great weather day ahead with lots of sunshine! Highs will hit the upper 40's. I can't stress enough.. take advantage of this weather, because we have rain in the forecast starting tomorrow afternoon, and on/off through Wednesday evening! Yeah I know, it's a slow system!




Highs tomorrow through Wednesday will struggle with highs mainly in the middle 40's. Areas south of the boundary, near the Ohio River, could get into the 50's. Here are the expected rainfall totals by Wednesday night:



We could pick more than 1" across the area by Wednesday night! By Thursday, the sunshine may return, but it will be brief! Another system could give us a light wintry mix by Friday. Looking ahead to Christmas weekend, it looks dry and chilly for now. 


I will have another update later this evening, have a good one!

Saturday, December 17, 2011

UPDATED WINTER FORECAST - WILL IT EVER SNOW?

Good evening, everyone! Okay... a familiar question lately, what happened to the cold and snowy December I predicted!?! The pattern all month long has featured a ridge to our southeast, active/mild pattern for us, and the polar jet WAY up north, keeping all the cold air locked up. Even each storm system that has moved through hasn't been able to tap into much cold air. We can thank the La Nina pattern, (despite last year's la nina that brought us all the snow). So let's investigate the weather pattern......


1. No blocking: When I issued my winter forecast in October, I was in full anticipation that a Greenland Block development, or the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) would go negative, creating a trough in the east with colder and snowier weather. That has not been the case. Take a look at the NAO chart (anything above the middle line means a +NAO) :
Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook




Because of the +NAO, this has led to the continued warmer temperatures and rain vs. snow so far. If the NAO would've gone negative (like I predicted) we would've had a repeat of last December. I do want to mention that just because it's positive doesn't mean it can't snow. Looking back at November 29th, even though Indy only got a trace, Peru did get 10". While cold air hasn't been around, sometimes these upper-level lows can produce their own cold air and produce snow, such as what happened in Memphis, TN TWICE so far this winter. The mid-south has had more snow than central and southern Indiana so far.


2. Are there changes down the road? Well, maybe. It does appear startospheric warming is going to take place over the poles. This usually produces much colder weather for much of the United States. Here is the the look at this on the day 10 GFS temperature analysis:



This may mean a period in January of much colder weather and snow threats. January will be the month to get our snow as warming will likely take over again sometime in February.


So here is my UPDATED winter outlook:


Rest of December: Milder than average, with above normal precipitation, mainly rain makers. Maybe Indy will set a record for the least amount of snow for December!


January: This will be the month for cold/snow lovers. I don't expect things to get as brutal as last year, but I do expect a sustained period of colder weather, (near the middle of the month) as the active pattern continues. (I also expect a couple moisture-laden storms during the month to produce potential thumping snows around here). January temps: near to somewhat above normal. January snowfall: Near/slightly below normal. 


February: A colder pattern will translate into a milder weather pattern, especially by the second half of the month, as an active pattern remains. Temps will be above average.


Overview.......


Winter snowfall will be slightly below average. Average snowfall for Indy is 27". If I were to give a number, I would go about 22" for the season total in Indy. (Keep in mind, I am in anticipation that a couple monster storms will be the only thing to bring the totals up. IF these big storms don't occur, Indy may not even get more than 15" for the season). Temperatures will be a bit above normal for the winter. (overall)



Thanks for checking out my updated winter forecast!!! Have a great night!

Friday, December 16, 2011

Great Weather On The Way - Things Get Active Next Week!

Good morning everyone, and happy Friday! We are starting off the day frosty and overcast, with temps in the lower 30's. There is a system to our south, which will keep the clouds around for much of the day, as the rains stays south of the Ohio River.


The weekend will be great for those doing any last minute holiday shopping! Expect sunny skies both days, with highs near 40 tomorrow, and 45-47 degrees on Sunday afternoon! High pressure will be in control over much of the central and eastern U.S.
Day 3 Fronts and Pressures

Looking Ahead: Another system will move in Monday night and Tuesday, with more rainfall! By Tuesday night into early Wednesday, it may mix with snow, but no accumulations expected for most of Indiana. However, if you traveling to areas like Chicago, Gary, or Detroit during this time, be prepared for accumulating snows up that way. Another system will move in around next Friday or Christmas Eve, potentially bringing a wintry mix to the area. I do feel the potential is there for SOMEONE in the Hoosier state to get a white Christmas, just too early to tell where. More on this in the coming days.


By the way, I want to say a big thanks to all my viewers of the blog! I only need 30 more views on the blog to reach 4,000 views since February! I will try to have another update this evening. Have a great day!

Thursday, December 15, 2011

From 60's to 20's tonight - Sunshine Tomorrow!

Good evening! What a day! The high in Indy hit 62 degrees around 10 this morning! Truly amazing! However, we dropped over 20 degrees in a span of a few hours. The colder air is now settling in, and get ready for a chilly night ahead!
Indiana Temperature Lows Forecast Map

Clouds should gradually thin out tomorrow, and lead to sunshine and normal to eventually above normal temperatures for the weekend, as high pressure dominates!
Day 3 Fronts and Pressures


Long Term Update: It appears more soaking rains will move in Monday evening through Tuesday night. Just too warm for any snow, with highs in the 40's likely. Models are hinting at a major storm around the 23rd, and this is one to watch as this storm may have over 1" liquid, and SOMEONE in the Midwest will get slammed with snow. Just to early to determine where. The only problem I see is the lack of real cold air, but that doesn't mean we won't get snow. Still LOTS of time to fine-tune this forecast, and check back every day for more updates!



I will update the blog in the morning, with the latest! Have a great night!

Mild Morning - Colder Afternoon!

Good morning! What a mild start! Upper 50's in middle December! Now that is tough to come by! Unfortunately, the cold front is knocking on our door, and will cause our temps. to go down, down, down by the afternoon. You can see the line of rain along it in western parts of the state.


We also had a soaking rain across the state last night. Many areas picked up 1-2"!


Expect lower 40's by the evening, as we dry out. A great stretch of weather is on the way tomorrow through Monday, as high pressure will be in control! Temps will remain on the nice side for this time of year, lower-middle 40's!
Day 4 Fronts and Pressures

Long Term Update: The models are weaker on the Tuesday/Wednesday system, looks like a mainly rain event. Another system will be knocking on our door around Christmas Eve, too early to tell whether it will be rain or snow. 


I will not update this afternoon, but will try to have an update out later this evening. Have a great day everyone!

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Timelapse of 2011 Hurricane Season


Here are highlights from the 2011 hurricane season.....


-The 2011 hurricane season produced 19 tropical storms, 7 which became hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


-None of the first 8 storms ever reached hurricane status.


-The total cost of damages is estimated at $7.3 billion.


-In the video above, it is also interesting to see storm systems rotating around the heat ridge that produced a very hot summer here in the Ohio Valley.

Warm Evening - Changes Coming!

Good afternoon! Hope everyone is enjoying the warm temperatures out there today. Be sure to take advantage of the warmth by getting any outdoor work done today! If you live in central or southern Indiana, expect to stay dry till the overnight. Areas across northern Indiana will continue to deal with the rain.


Rains will become widespread overnight into tomorrow morning, making for a wet commute in the morning.

2

Many areas will have .75-1" by tomorrow afternoon.



Long Term Update: A nice and seasonable weekend expected. I still think we will have a rain to snow set-up Tuesday into Wednesday, with accumulations not out of the question, so check back. There may be another shot of rain or snow around the 23rd. Still lots of time to fine-tune the details.

Have a great evening!

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Rain Moving In - More On Next Week's Set-Up!

Good evening! Round 1 of the rainfall is heading into the Hoosier state this evening. This is all ahead of a strong warm front that will lift through by tomorrow morning, that will usher in the warm air by tomorrow afternoon.


Most of the rain will lift north of the area by mid-morning. Get ready for a very warm day tomorrow! Highs will be near 60 tomorrow afternoon. If the sun comes out, expect temps to be even warmer! Enjoy it! Rains will move back in Wednesday night, with cooler air by late Thursday.


Moving on to next week, it appears that another spike in temps will take place Monday, ahead of another system. This will be all rain Monday night through much of Tuesday, before changing to a wintry mix or even all snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some light accumulations would be possible. This is how it is looking for now, but it is still nearly a week out, and is likely to change somewhat. Another system will take aim a few days later, around Friday the 23rd. Too early to tell if it will be a rain or snow event. Much more on this tomorrow!


More updates tomorrow. Have a great night!

Tracking 60+ Degrees Tomorrow - Cool-Down Coming - Accumulating Snow Next Week?


Good afternoon! Hope everyone is having a great day so far! We have some amazing warmth on the way.. how about 60's in December? :) Pretty amazing, huh! Well, I am very happy to say our pattern looks to FINALLY pick up, and turn wintry starting next week. I am already watching the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe next week for accumulating snow, and more shots through Christmas Day! More on that in a moment, but first let's get through the short-term!.....

This Evening: It won't be a washout of an evening, but can't rule out a sprinkle or shower. Here is the radar to track these showers...


Wednesday: Record Warmth?  I am tracking a warm front expected to move through late tonight, ushering in April-like warmth for our Wednesday! Ahead of this warm front, we will have a band of showers move in after midnight. Lows tonight will only dip into the 40's! Here is a look at the expected rainfall late tonight:


After the warm front moves through Wednesday midday,sunshine may break out for a while for Wednesday afternoon, with a balmy southwest wind. It will become much more humid and mild, with highs in the lower 60's. ENJOY IT!!

Extended: Rains fill back in Wednesday night through early Thursday, then move out early Thursday as cooler air ushers in. Friday-Sunday will quiet, with seasonable highs near 40, lows in the 20's. Next week, things get interesting! We will have a storm move in around late Monday-Wednesday. At this point, this should start out all liquid, however, this may change to a mix by Tuesday afternoon, then all snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. To make things more complicated, central Indiana may be right in the battle zone between rain and snow. 





It looks like yet another system around the 23rd which *could* be snow, still lots of time to figure this out. For Christmas Day, it looks like flurries around with lower-middle 30's. I am hearing a lot of sites saying that white Christmas won't happen this year. I happen to disagree somewhat as I think it is interesting to see some of the models have a sharp cool-down around Christmas, along with an active pattern. I think we have a real shot of some white for Christmas! Still lots of time to get more detailed.

Thanks for checking out the blog, have a great evening!