Latest on early week system

C-O-L-D morning outside! Waking up to wind chills in the teen, and temperatures in the middle 20's. Despite some sunshine off and on today, temperatures will be slow to warm. Middle 30's for most areas.

Sunday will be a bit milder, partial sun and highs in the middle 40's.

Now to the early week system advertised on the blog since the 17th. This one has been fun, yet aggravating tracking on the models, as they have flip-flopped so much. At first they agreed on a weak, southern storm system, (which is what's expected now) to a stronger, farther north track. Since Thursday, the models have been waffling back and forth and very inconsistent. While things are becoming more clear now, the details are still shady.

It is clear now that this will be a weak storm system that will track south of Indiana. As it does, a light mix of rain and snow is expected to develop across parts of southern Indiana by Monday evening. That should briefly change over to a period of light snow Monday night. It appears the snow side of the system will only be about 50 miles wide, so PLACEMENT IS EVERYTHING when it comes to who gets the snow, and who gets nothing.

Snow amounts, if any, are hard to pinpoint still because of the timing of the system. If more falls during the day, I don't see any accumulation. If it works out to fall during the night, light accumulations would be possible.

The HPC is catching on to the idea of light accumulations for southern Indiana Monday night. Shown below are the probabilities for 1-2" of snow. With the next update, this may need shifted even farther south, near the I-64 corridor.

The latest GFS shows a rain/snow mix across the southern half of the state late Monday night through Tuesday. Because it is slower with the system, it shows little or no accumulation.

The NAM is farther south, but more narrow and robust with the snow band. The NAM is also faster, bringing it in Monday evening/night.

This model also shows the potential for a couple inches of snow across extreme southern Indiana and northern Kentucky Monday night.

Here are MY thoughts on how this plays out: Right now I like how the NAM models is playing out the system overall. I think light rain/snow showers will break out Monday evening across southern Indiana, switching over to a period of light snow/flurries into Tuesday morning. I think the system stays far enough south that areas north of Bloomington/Columbus may see nothing at all from this system. Again, this forecast is certainly NOT set in stone yet.

The updated model runs will be coming within the next two hours. I will post those updates on facebook. Stay tuned!

UPDATE on next week's storm.

Good evening! Sorry I haven't been updating the blog as much lately. While I am so busy, I still try to post quick updates via facebook. So if you haven't liked my page, the link is at the top of the page.

The main topic of the blog will be next week's interesting set-up, but here are some quick thoughts about our weather between now and Sunday:

-GREAT weather through Thanksgiving, as sunshine returns. Highs in the low 60's.

-CHANGES arrive beginning Black Friday, with falling temps into the 40's and some rain showers as shoppers head out well before daylight.

-COLD weekend! Saturday stays in the 30's, and Sunday in the low-mid 40's. Wind chills even colder. Other than flurries for n/e parts of Indiana, a dry weekend can be expected. 

NOW TO THE FUN PART OF THE FORECAST :) NOV. 27-28..It's a very interesting and fun forecast as we head into the next week, and beyond. I have mentioned for a week now that the NAO indices are expected to go negative, perhaps strongly negative. Keep in mind, when the NAO goes negative, you can just about always count on cold weather locally. This is due to strong blocking over Greenland. Let's take a look at the indices shown on the models.

GFS NAO readings aren't off the charts, but certainly negative.



The EURO is very negative, off the charts in fact.


Both models agree that as cold air moves into the Plains states early next week, a storm will develop to our southwest, and then track our way. The models, however, are struggling with the intensity and track of the storm. Going back to last night, the GFS and EURO agreed on the storm being weaker and farther south, favoring accum snows for us. Today, the EURO decides to take the storm farther north and stronger as well.  It also appears the GFS has trended a bit closer to the EURO, but certainly not to its extent.

The GFS run from this evening has trended a little bit farther north, but such a set-up would feature a wintry mix to snow set-up, (all snow for some). Areas in the white circle would be the areas with the best chance of accumulating snow, again, according to the GFS.

The EURO on the other hand is stronger and farther north, with the low tracking near or just barely northwest of us. Such a set-up would favor rain, changing over to light snow as cold air rushes in behind the storm. Notice the accumulating snows would be much farther northwest if the current EURO were to verify.

SO WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT??? Good question. :) When I see the NAO so low, I would tend to favor a stronger storm, which would increase the chances of it tracking either right over or northwest of us. Because of the huge uncertainty, I would take a middle road approach, with a rain/snow mix and highs in the low 40's during this time. However, we can't take out the GFS's idea yet either. It is still a week out so basically expect daily changes to this forecast. Hopefully the models will have a much better handle on the situation in a few days. So bottom line, if you're a huge snow fan like me, just waiting for the first good snow of the season, it is still possible. Still too early for any more specifics..stay tuned!

7-day outlook - CPC winter forecast - my thoughts on winter ahead!

Here is my forecast for the next 7 days... very quiet! We've got a nice rebound in temps starting tomorrow, and continuing for the next week or more. Highs in the middle/upper 50's will be common after tomorrow's low 50's. The only chance for a shower is Tuesday, and it's a SMALL chance. Thanksgiving Day is looking great...sunny and low 60's!!

The CPC has updated their winter forecast today, with "Equal chances" for above, below, or near normal temps. A big change from earlier, they now have the southern half of Indiana in above average precipitation for the winter.

I have been trying to put out my own winter forecast this year, but I have decided not to as I am just too busy with my studies preparing for college. I will tell you my thoughts at this point. I am going for slightly below normal temperatures and near normal snowfall. Nothing drastic from normal, but certainly a huge change from last year, if my thoughts pan out. 

I will not have as much time to keep the blog updated over the next several weeks. I will still be able to post quick updates on facebook, so be sure to "like" my page! Have a great rest of the evening!