Tracking 2 Snow Systems and EXTREME COLD

Good evening!  Not a bad way to end 2013!  Most areas saw sunshine today, with slightly warmer temperatures.  The pattern is loaded with accumulating snow tomorrow night, then perhaps a bigger storm coming in on Sunday.  All that will be followed by MAJOR MAJOR cold.  Your jaw will drop when you see how cold it may get early next week.

Snow will arrive across far northern sections of Indiana tonight.  It will basically stall out before gradually taking a turn southeast late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.  Everybody will see snow coming down tomorrow night into Thursday morning.  How much snow?  Here is my snowfall potential map...

Once the snow exits, it gets awful cold.  Highs Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the teens.  Friday morning should dip into the single digits.  (That is WARM compared to what may come next week)  

When the weekend arrives all eyes will be on another storm that will develop across the area late in the weekend.  This has potential to be a decent winter storm in our area, with even blizzard conditions possible!  All of the major computer models are now showing a storm during this time frame.  Track and strength to be determined in the coming days.  

It is behind that storm that it will likely get INSANELY cold.  This is jaw dropping cold.  Easily the coldest in many years IF...IF the models are correct.  Factors remain such as if there will be a decent snow pack over our region, however I think there is a strong likelihood of that happening at this point.  Posted below is the EURO for 7am Monday.  Notice those TIGHT isobars across the region.  Basically it turns the weekend storm into a powerhouse, and wraps in barbaric cold behind it.  So to sum it up, sub-zero lows at night early next week (-10 to -15) are an increasing possibility, and high temperatures in the single digits.  STAY TUNED!  

A LOT OF WINTER ON THE WAY

Good afternoon.  After a brief break, winter is back in full force.  Parts of northern Indiana could have significant totals on the ground before the week is over.  Before I get into everything, here are some quick headlines of what I am tracking this week:

-light snow north tonight

-snow system New Years Day through Thursday

-storm system for Sunday

-major arctic cold next week?

A weak clipper arrives tonight for northern Indiana.  This will stay north of Indianapolis.  Parts of extreme northern Indiana could pick up 1" out of this by tomorrow morning.  

Another system arrives beginning Tuesday night for extreme northern Indiana, and that snow will stall out for a while up that way, and gradually push across the state late New Years Day into Thursday.  Lots of question marks remain for this system.  The system will be diving out of the polar jet, however there will also be a storm system coming out of the subtropical jet to the south.  When these two streams phase, this could become a bigger storm.  However, at this time it appears these will phase to our east.  How quickly they will phase will impact snow totals locally.  At this time there is potential for accumulating snow, whether it is an inch or several inches remains to be seen.  If you are heading out east to the East coast NYC/Boston/etc. there could be significant amounts of snow late this week.  Let me quickly show you a couple model runs.  Here is the snowfall output from the latest GFS.  It puts significant snow down along the Indiana counties bordering Michigan, with 2-4" elsewhere across the state. 

To compare, here is the NAM snowfall output.  Notice how it is not impressed with the snow totals unless you are up in extreme northern Indiana.  **These are just model runs---not an actual forecast!!** 

There will be an arctic front approaching our region on Sunday, and the question remains whether or not a storm will develop along it.  Some models say oh yes, while others show only a little bit of precipitation as the front moves through.  Confidence remains very low as the models are on their usual waffles.  

Behind that front, there is potential for some very frigid temperatures next week.  Some of the models have been spitting out EXTREMELY cold numbers.  Have to urge extreme caution, models have been going back and forth on this.

Bottom line, there is lots to track over the next week.  Expect changes!  

REMEMBERING THE HISTORIC WINTER STORM OF DECEMBER 22-23 2004

9 years ago the state was in the midst of what would be the biggest snowstorm in history for some areas, as two major storms crossed over the Ohio Valley within a few hours of each other.  I will never forget this one, I was 10 years old and this was the storm that really sparked my interest in weather, especially winter storms.  I remember visiting family in French Lick for Christmas, and measuring 24" of snow on the ground.  Here is a full write up of this storm all from the NWS office in Louisville, KY:

22 December 2004
central Kentucky and southern Indiana
Historic Winter Storm

A historic and major winter storm affected much of the Ohio Valley from the 22nd into the 23rd of December 2004. Two bursts of heavy snow, separated by a few hours, brought over two feet of snow across several counties north of the Ohio River in southern Indiana. Interstates 64 and 65 across southern Indiana were closed for a number of hours during this storm. Snow totals of 30 inches or more were measured across portions of Washington, Jefferson, and Scott counties. Further south, an amazing 6 inches of sleet fell in one location across Henry County. Significant sleet accumulations also fell on the Louisville metro area. Thundersnow and thundersleet were observed during this event, with snowfall rates approaching 4 inches per hour in some southern Indiana locations. Across central Kentucky, freezing rain brought up to an inch and a half of ice across an area from Bowling Green through Nelson County. Ice accumulations caused considerable tree and some structural roof damage in Hardin and Nelson counties.

You can view a 3 hour duration radar loop during the evening of 22 December...pretty much the peak of the event. Click here to view...however note that the file is 3 MB large any may take a few moments to download over slower Internet connections. You can see the persistent banding which lead to large snow and sleet totals. A couple strikes of cloud to ground lightning were also seen, indicating the thundersleet or thundersnow.

 A large scale 500 MB trough over much of North America provided an environment favorable to ascent over the Ohio River Valley. This analysis was valid at 00 UTC on 23 December 2004 (7 PM EST 22 December).

 A relatively weak surface low was located over the Gulf Coast states, allowing moist air to flow northward into the Ohio Valley. This clearly shows you that it does not take a deep cyclone to create significant winter storms in this part of the country. This analysis was also valid at 00 UTC on 23 December 2004 (7 PM EST 22 December).

 This map shows an approximate analysis of snow and/or ice accumulations, in inches, across the NWS Louisville area of responsibility.

 A surface temperature analysis early Christmas morning (a couple days after the winter storm). The deepest snowpack is well correlated with the coldest temperatures that morning. It took nearly a week after the snowstorm for the deepest snows to melt completely.

Here is a county-by-county listing of snow, sleet, and ice totals from the event:

THE FOLLOWING ARE COUNTY-BY-COUNTY *MAXIMUM* PRECIPITATION TOTALS 
GATHERED FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES, STORM SPOTTERS, 
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS, AND OFFICIAL REPORTING STATIONS.

.SOUTHERN INDIANA...

COUNTY               SNOWFALL               COMMENTS
------------------------------------------------------------------
DUBOIS               20 INCHES              4 FOOT DRIFTS
PERRY                20 INCHES
ORANGE               30 INCHES         EST BY TRAINED SPOTTER
CRAWFORD             23 INCHES              5 FOOT DRIFTS
HARRISON             20 INCHES
WASHINGTON           32 INCHES              5 FOOT DRIFTS
FLOYD                14 INCHES
CLARK                15 INCHES
SCOTT                29 INCHES
JEFFERSON            17 INCHES              EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY
JEFFERSON            30 INCHES              FAR WESTERN PART OF COUNTY

.NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

COUNTY               ACCUMULATIONS          COMMENTS 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
HANCOCK              17-19 INCHES           5 FOOT DRIFTS
BRECKINRIDGE         15+ INCHES
MEADE                10+ INCHES
BULLITT              4-6 INCHES
SPENCER              4-5 INCHES
JEFFERSON            9 INCHES           OFFICIAL FROM SDF (LOU ITNL)
OLDHAM               9 INCHES
HARDIN               3-4 INCHES SLEET WITH 1 INCH OF ICE
NELSON               1 INCH OF ICE WITH 2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ON TOP
WASHINGTON           1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ICE WITH A LITTLE SNOW
TRIMBLE              12 INCHES              2 FOOT DRIFTS
SHELBY               5.5 INCHES             INCLUDES 3.5 INCHES SLEET
HENRY                9 INCHES               INCLUDES 6 INCHES SLEET

.SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

COUNTY               ACCUMULATIONS          COMMENTS 
------------------------------------------------------------------
OHIO                 8 INCHES               MORE IN THE NORTHERN PART
                                            OF THE COUNTY
BUTLER               3-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE 
GRAYSON              6 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW
CUMBERLAND           2/10 INCH OF ICE

.EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

COUNTY               ACCUMULATIONS          COMMENTS 
------------------------------------------------------------------
FRANKLIN             1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ICE, 1 INCH SLEET AND SNOW 
WOODFORD             1/4 INCH ICE
SCOTT                1/2+ INCH ICE, WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW
FAYETTE              1/4 INCH ICE
JESSAMINE            1/4 INCH ICE
GARRARD              1/4 INCH ICE
MADISON              1/4 INCH ICE NEAR WESTERN BORDER, LOWER AMOUNTS
                     ELSEWHERE
CLARK                LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
BOURBON              1/4 INCH ICE
HARRISON             1/2+ INCH ICE
NICHOLAS             LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
MERCER               1/2+ INCH ICE

Here is a listing of the low temperatures observed the morning of December 25th:

...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

   LEAVENWORTH     MINUS  7
   SCOTTSBURG      MINUS 19
   TELL CITY       PLUS   5
   HUNTINGBURG     MINUS 13
   PATOKA LAKE     MINUS  7

...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

   LOUISVILLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE          0
   LOUISVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT              PLUS  2
   LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD                       PLUS  2
   FRANKFORT                                     PLUS  3
   BOWLING GREEN                                 PLUS  9
   COVINGTON                                    MINUS  2
   WOODBURY                                      PLUS  4
   ROCHESTER FERRY                              MINUS  3
   HERRINGTON LAKE                               PLUS 11
   MARROWBONE                                    PLUS  9
   BARREN RIVER LAKE                             PLUS 10
   GREEN RIVER LAKE                              PLUS 14
   NOLIN RIVER LAKE                              PLUS  4
   ROUGH RIVER LAKE                             MINUS  4
   FORT KNOX                                    MINUS  2             
   LEXINGTON                                     PLUS  8

Quick December Recap - Latest on Super Soaker Weekend Ahead - MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE!

Good evening.  Hard to believe there has been snow on the ground since December 5th!!  It has been a remarkable start to meteorological winter, with the entire state at a much faster than normal pace of snowfall.  Here in Martinsville, my snowfall total for the season so far stands at 9.4".  Already well on our way to the average 25.9" for the season.  Another side of the story has been the COLD.  Some areas went nearly two weeks without going above freezing.  That of course is why the snow has been sticking around.  The deep snow pack helps reserve the cold air.  When you have a decent snow pack develop, it acts like a freezer, helping keep temperatures colder.  

Check out the current snow cover across the U.S. (courtesy of WSI).  A decent snow pack is still present across most of Indiana, but there is going to be a huge dent in that as we head towards the weekend, as some MAJOR changes are about to occur.  

When you step outside tomorrow morning, you will notice milder temperatures.  With a steady south flow all night, even with clear skies, temperatures will remain a touch above freezing for most of the night.  A good 15-20 degrees WARMER than this morning.  Temperatures tomorrow will continue to warm up.  There will likely be a big temperature spread from north to south.  Areas with the most snow cover in northern Indiana may struggle to get out of the 30's, while southern Indiana gets well into the 50's.  Most of central Indiana should get well into the 40's.  Remember the deeper the snow depth in your area, the tougher it will be for temperatures to really respond.  This could also lead to a fog issue in northern areas tomorrow, with that warmer air flowing over the cold, snow covered ground.  The good news is that most areas should remain rain-free.

The rain chances begin by Thursday night, and this will be the beginning of a VERY WET period of weather.  Rain will be likely throughout the day on Friday, although it should not be all that heavy.  There will once again be a huge temperature spread, from low 40's north to middle 50's south.  

It is going to be an extremely wet weekend, with major, major flooding possible.  By time we get into Saturday, a huge storm system will be gathering strength and approaching the area.  Expect rain and rainfall rates to really go up by Saturday afternoon, with the heaviest rain setting up Saturday evening through noon Sunday.  Rainfall rates could be extremely heavy.  Check out the map for 7am Sunday.  The flood gates of the Gulf of Mexico are wide open, pumping in an enormous amount of moisture aimed right here into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Between Friday and Sunday, a good portion of the state will be seeing anywhere from 3-5" of rain laid down, with local amounts of 6" or more likely.   This is EXTREMELY concerning!!  Parts of the state still have 6-8" of snow on the ground,  as we melt that, and add an enormous amount of water on the already water-logged ground, this is going to create major problems.  I think this could be historic flooding.  If you lived in a flood-proned area, now is the time to prepare.  Even areas that don't normally flood could be affected.  Here is the 7-day rainfall potential map from WPC.  That is A LOT of rain!

Based on the latest track of the storm, it now appears this will only be a rain event for all of Indiana.  There could be some backlash wintry stuff late Sunday in northern Indiana, but even that would not be much.  I can't believe it after nearly 2 weeks of snow on the ground, but the chances of a white Christmas look very low.  The good news is that the pattern quiets down for a good part of next week, so other than a few flurries, Christmas Eve and day look pretty nice, with seasonably chilly temperatures.  

I will continue to update on the flooding potential.  Thanks for reading!  

WINTER STORM ON THE WAY - LATEST FORECAST

Good morning.  Our first winter storm of the season is on the way.  The system appears to be coming in 2 waves.  One tonight, and another one tomorrow.  The one tomorrow will be the stronger one that will bring the brunt of the snow accumulations.  

Precipitation looks to break out and become widespread after 4pm today.  It will likely fall as a wintry mix in central Indiana, with rain south.  As the evening progresses, the rain/snow line will be shifting south.  Important to note travel this evening (by 6pm and after) could be a big mess with the sleet/freezing rain mixed with the snow.  The best chances for freezing rain will be across the southern part of Indiana tonight.  By midnight, most of central Indiana should be plain snow, possibly with some sleet still mixed in.  Southern Indiana will hold on to a wintry mix longer through the night, but should go to all snow as the overnight progresses.  Watch out for a glazing of ice with snow on top of it to make travel and getting around slick and hazardous.  About 2" of snow/sleet accumulation is possible across central and south/central Indiana by tomorrow morning.

Round 2 arrives during the day tomorrow.  After a brief lull early tomorrow morning, snow will return for a good part of central and southern Indiana.  There is a likelihood that snow will be quite heavy at times south of I-70.  Several inches will accumulate throughout the day.  Roads will be snow covered and hazardous.  

The snow finally winds down by 7/8pm, but not before dumping heavy snow over southern Indiana.  Here is a look at my updated snowfall potential map.  I want to point out that the snowfall forecast in central Indiana is quite difficult, because a big question mark remains for how far north the precipitation shield can get tomorrow.  There will likely be a sharp cut-off.  My latest forecast is not much different from the one I posted last night, but I did add a 3-6" band over Indianapolis and points directly south/east.  There may be a pretty good cut-off northwest of the city.  

My Facebook page is the place to be for plenty of updates on this storm! If you haven't given it a "LIKE" yet - be sure to do so! - https://www.facebook.com/Nathanwx

Tornado Outbreak Update - Latest Forecast Through Thanksgiving Week

It has been nice to have some calm weather over the past couple of days after the historic outbreak of tornadoes we just experienced on Sunday.  My prayers go out to everyone who has been displaced from their homes.  I could not even imagine.  Here is the latest on where the outbreak stands...

To put it briefly, temperatures will warm up back in the lower 50's tomorrow through Friday.  Enjoy some sunshine and dry weather tomorrow.  Rain chances return Thursday and Friday.  Right now, the wettest day appears to be Friday.  


The weekend will feature a HUGE dip in the jet stream.  Bottom line, it will get VERY cold!!  Any lingering precipitation Saturday morning could be in the form of snow flurries, but by Saturday afternoon and Sunday, dry weather will be the rule.  Obviously a much different weekend than the last one!  Temperatures Saturday will fall in the 30s through the day with teens Sunday morning.  Highs on Sunday will not get out of the 20s.  This is about 25 degrees off from normal.  Check out the arctic air mass spilling right into the Ohio Valley this weekend...

Temperatures will remain chilly for Thanksgiving week, with highs several days next week only in the 30s if current models are correct.  A couple of snow chances appear on the table, but these do NOT look like anything to get excited about at this point.  The forecast confidence for next week is low and subject to change.  

Thanks for reading!  As always, you can find more weather updates on my Facebook and Twitter pages.  

Severe Storms On Sunday

For this post, I am only going to be focusing on the severe weather potential on Sunday, since today and tomorrow will be fairly quiet with warming temps.

I have watched the models converge on an increasing idea of severe weather on Sunday.  A few of the things meteorologists look at to predict severe weather events are things such as wind shear and instability.  Let's dive in. 

WIND SHEAR

This looks impressive on Sunday.  This indicates that Sunday will be a windy day - storms or not, but this high wind shear aloft also means that storms could easily tap into it, and produce damaging winds here at the surface.  This can also aid in the development in tornadoes if these winds are turning enough in direction with height - also known as directional shear for the weather nerds out there.  The map below shows the 500 mb winds for 8pm Sunday evening.  That purple indicates winds over 100 knots blowing above our heads on Sunday!

The European shows a very similar set-up, although it does not indicate wind shear as extreme as the GFS.  

INSTABILITY

This appears to be slightly higher than the Halloween storm only because of timing.  GFS on the left and NAM on the right. Both images are 4pm Sunday.

MOISTURE

This looks impressive for mid-November with 60 degree dewpoints in many areas.  I am just showing the GFS model here.

TORNADO INDEX

One cool thing about the NAM model is that it can give tornado probs unlike other models.  It shows the best tornado potential to our west, but certainly showing a threat here too.

TIMING

It looks like most of the severe weather will be pushing through the region between 4pm and 10pm.  Before the main line pushes through, there may be some super cell storms that could become severe.  Something to watch.  

SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

The SPC has placed much of Indiana in a 30% risk for severe storms.  For SPC, that is a pretty high risk for 3 days out.

MY THOUGHTS:

I have no doubt that there will be some severe weather on Sunday, based on all the parameters we just discussed.  One thing that could hamper the risk slightly is if rain and clouds hold on Sunday - which I think has a decent chance of happening.  This would help keep instability levels in check.  However EVEN if we get no sun or dry time Sunday, the wind shear is high enough to compensate for that, and we would still have a risk for severe weather.  The highest threat Sunday evening is damaging winds without a doubt, with strong winds like that aloft.  I think we have a moderate risk for a few tornadoes.  Lower risks would include hail and flooding.  The Weather Channel gives tornado TOR-CON'S for regions when there is a potential for severe storms.  They are giving Indiana a 4 which means there is a 40% chance of a tornado within a 50 mile radius.  I want to stress I do not think this is a major outbreak like a March 2nd, 2012 event.  However, everyone in Indiana stands a chance for severe weather.  

I will have updates throughout the weekend on my Facebook page.  If you have not "LIKED" it yet on Facebook, you should go ahead and do that.  That way you will get my updates on what to expect.  

Have a great day, and stay safe.  

Arctic Air and Snow On The Way

The big changes that I have talked about for days is almost upon us.  Get ready for bitter cold temps.  It will feel like January over the next couple of days.

Today we will have increasing clouds with showers arriving in the evening from north to south.  Temperatures will vary with near 60 in far southern Indiana to the 40's north of I-70.

A rapidly moving area of rain and snow will work in through the evening.  It will start as rain, but as colder air works in, we will have a period of light snow.  I suspect the change to snow occurring in Indianapolis between 9 and 10 this evening, earlier to the north, and later than that south.  Here is what the radar should look like around 10pm...

A few slick spots are possible later this evening once the snow takes over, but should not cause too many problems thanks to the warm surface temperatures.  How much snow?  Not much!  Unless you are near the lake in northern Indiana!  From Indy and points north and east, a coating to 1" is possible, with only a dusting in spots southwest of there.  Here is my snowfall forecast...

If you are a snow lover, you need to head to areas between South Bend and Gary where several inches of snow may fall.  

The bigger story by all means is the cold air coming in.  When you step outside tomorrow morning, wind chills will be in the teens, with air temps in the 20's.  Temperatures tomorrow just won't warm up with highs in the low to mid 30's.  Factor in a gusty north wind, and wind chill readings will be stuck in the 20's.  I think many areas will be in the teens Wednesday morning!

The bitter cold does not hang too long, much warmer air will arrive by Thursday afternoon and beyond.  I will post a 7-day forecast on my Facebook page later today.  

Have a great day!  

October Goes Out With A Bang

Good morning.  The big storm system that I have talked about for a while is on its way.  This storm will bring heavy rain, wind, and some strong to severe thunderstorms to parts of the area.

The good news is that today is not looking too bad.  Clouds will thicken through the day, but any rain should hold off until this evening, mainly after sunset.  You can track the rain on the "radars" tab at the top of the page.  Temperatures will warm near 60.  

Temperatures will really warm up for tomorrow as the wind flow ahead of the storm system pumps in warm, moist air.  Highs tomorrow will warm up near 70, but we will dodge some showers and storms from time to time.  It will not be a washout though.  

The real action arrives on Thursday as the strong storm system drags a cold front into the state.

Here is a quick breakdown:

-Widespread rain and thunderstorms will move in throughout the day Thursday and into Thursday night.

-Heavy rain amounts of 1"-2" will be likely state-wide.

-Lots of wind energy across the area.  Outside of thunderstorms, wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible through the day.

-Line of severe storms possible in the afternoon Thursday, into the early evening.  

The best chances for severe thunderstorms will lie across southern Indiana, where moisture and instability will be greatest.  Damaging winds, large hail, and 1 or two tornadoes can't be ruled out.  This is not a major severe weather outbreak, but certainly something to really keep an eye on.  Here is the SPC outlook for Thursday:

At this time, trick-or-treating weather looks to be windy, rainy, and stormy.  I would imagine that most locations will move trick-or-treating to either tomorrow or Friday.  The best weather conditions will be Friday, as it should be completely dry.    

I will have more updates on my Facebook page.  Have a great day, take care.  

November-Like Temps - Snow Flurries - Warmer Weekend

Cold and frosty morning!! Temperatures dropped in the 20's and 30's area wide, with the first frost and freezes of the season.  Get used to it! There's more where that came from. The weather pattern over the next several days will be one more typical of late November!   

Sunny skies this morning will give way to cloudy skies this afternoon, and showers toward the evening.  Areas that see the clouds move in first may not get out of the 40's, and areas with more sun should reach the 50's. 

For tonight, there will be scattered showers around as a weak clipper system moves through.  After midnight, snow will mix in, especially north of Indianapolis. Those areas could actually see a few hours of snow flurries falling, but there will not be any accumulation.  

A lingering snow flurry or sprinkle is possible tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will only reach the middle 40's.  To give you an idea of how below normal this is, the average LOW temperature this time of year is in the middle 40's.  


Another weak system similar to the one tonight will move in late Wednesday night into Thursday.  A few snow/rain showers are possible. High temperatures on Thursday will once again be in the middle 40's.  

Lots of sunshine will return for Friday after starting off in the 20's.  Everyone should see a hard, killing freeze to end the growing season.  

The weekend as of now looks pretty good.  Sunshine in the forecast both days, with cold mornings and milder afternoons. A weak cold front may knock off our temps a few degrees from Saturday's, but high temperatures for most areas will be in the 50's both days.  Fall color should finally reach peak, so it will be a GREAT weekend to head outside to check out the great colors before they are gone! 

Right now, temperatures look to rebound in the 50's and 60's early next week.  The warm up however looks to be short-lived.

I will have another update tomorrow.  Have a great day!  

Big Changes Coming!

Hello everyone!  Sorry I haven't been keeping the blog updated.  College is keeping me pretty busy, and I don't have a lot of extra time on my hands.  I will continue to post when I can. You can still find frequent weather updates on my Facebook weather page.  https://www.facebook.com/Nathanwx

The weather has been about as good as it gets over the past week, and we have two days left of this marvelous weather!  Sunny skies with highs in the lower 70's, and morning lows in the 40's will be the norm.  My advice: soak it up!!! If you are not ready for the weather to change, do not read any further. :)  You have been warned.   

The changes start to arrive Tuesday.  Clouds will be on the increase as showers start to move in later in the day, then rain will remain in the forecast through the day on Wednesday, with perhaps a lingering shower or two into Thursday as well.

You will notice a huge change in the temperatures during this time.  Highs will go from the 70's Tuesday to the 60's Wednesday, then struggle to get out of the 50's in areas Thursday and Friday!  This is just one of two chilly air masses I am watching over the next 10 days.  

Next weekend, it appears a stronger blast of chilly air arrives, mainly for Sunday the 20th.  Highs may go from the 60's next Saturday, then struggle to get out of the 40's in spots by next Sunday. Low temps could fall to near freezing by the morning of the 21st - ASSUMING the models are correct.  Please keep in mind the models are consistently changing on how extreme this blast of chilly air will be.  The models may be too aggressive on the cold, and I think they will back off a bit as we get closer. I do however think it is looking like a good threat of our first area-wide frost or even light freeze between the 19-21.  Stay tuned!  

Rain Chances Increasing

Good morning everyone!  We have certainly been lucky as of late with gorgeous weather and fall-like temps, a sure turn around from last week when we had record heat.  Storm chances will be going up starting today, and increase as we end the week and begin the weekend.  Things have been VERY DRY around here for about two months now, but I think we will begin to make up for that between now and Saturday.  In fact, a widespread, soaking rain is looking likely. 

Let's get started with today.  Lots of clouds around today, and there will be showers from time to time.  Most of the rain will likely stay south of Indianapolis. Not a washout, and some areas won't see a drop. Temperatures for today are tricky. I think many areas will stay in the 70's today, but a few lower 80's are possible in areas that get a little more sun and less rain. Here's where you can track today's rain...

Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week with highs in the middle to upper 80's as the humidity cranks a bit. I can't rule out isolated storms, but most areas should remain dry.

It's Friday and Friday night when the storm action starts to increase big-time.  A strong storm system over southern Canada will cause a cold front to move into the area. The models have slowed the timing of the front down some, so most of the storm activity probably won't arrive until sometime Friday afternoon and especially Friday evening and night. Timing does not look good for Friday night football games across the area. I would definitely be prepared for a rainy evening. Here are a few images from the GFS showing the rainfall over the Hoosier state from Friday afternoon through Friday night.

I am getting concerned about Saturday's forecast a little bit. Some of the models cut-off the southern end of the trough, which could cause rain chances to linger through the day on Saturday. The best chance of rain on Saturday looks to be the southeastern half of the state.  I still think Sunday should be completely dry, with very pleasant temperatures. 

A gorgeous stretch of weather looks to take hold for next week with lots of sunshine and seasonal temperatures. 

FALL BEGINS AT 4:44 PM ON SUNDAY!!!! Thanks for reading the blog, have an awesome day!

Record Heat Followed By a Huge Cool-Down!!

NEAR RECORD HEAT... Officially 93° in Indianapolis today, and the heat index topped out at 100 around 4pm. We won't even see much relief overnight with lows slowly falling in the 70's. Tomorrow has real potential to tie (or even break) the record high of 95. I am forecasting 95 for Indianapolis. Keep in mind it will "feel" several degrees warmer than what you are seeing on the thermometers due to the very high levels of humidity. Heat indices will likely top out as high as 100-103 tomorrow afternoon. We can copy that forecast for Wednesday as well. I think this *could* be our last heat wave for the summer, so if you aren't digging this stuff just be patient! :)

STORM CHANCES!? We NEED RAIN!! Much of central Indiana has been stuck in this drier than normal pattern since July, and it seems relentless. A cold front approaching the area Wednesday night and Thursday will be our only hope for getting some rain. A few days ago this was looking like a good shot of decent rainfall, but the models have trended drier and drier with this system. PERHAPS .25-.50" of rain, but some areas will probably never get a drop of rain with this. 

BLAST OF CRISP - FALL AIR!! This is what we are all

waiting for, right?!! Once that cold front moves through late Thursday, we say good-bye to that heat and humidity, and hello to a true taste of FALL! Highs on Friday and Saturday could struggle to get out of the 60's in some areas, with lows falling in the 40's for a few mornings. Parts of northeast Indiana could even get down as low as the upper 30's. Talk about PERFECT weather for outdoor activities. Perfect camping and bonfire weather. :) 

Thanks for stopping by the blog. Have a great night and an awesome Tuesday! Stay cool!

A Look at Today's Rain Totals - Brief Drop in Humidity Before Major Heat Arrives!

FEAST OR FAMINE.. A LOOK AT TODAY'S RAIN

No surprise, but a lot of us MISSED OUT on the rain opportunity today. I mean check out the rainfall accumulation map. I picked up between .30-.35" of rain today with a downpour that moved over my house around 2PM. Just a couple miles from my house, not a drop fell.  VERY hit or miss. For Indianapolis, this now marks the 13th straight day with no rain recorded. We look to add several more days to that! 

BRIEF DROP IN HUMIDITY
As a cold front continues to push south of the state later tonight, winds from the north will help to usher drier, slightly more comfortable air into the state for our Friday and Saturday. Highs will still reach well into the 80's, but the drier air will allow overnight lows to be much cooler than the past several nights, so perhaps we can give the A/C a little break, because major heat is about to return! (details below)

HEAT WAVE COMING..HOTTEST OF SUMMER LIKELY!
As a ridge of high pressure to our west begins to expand into the Ohio Valley next week, it will bring very hot stuff our way. Each day next week looks to be 90 or higher, with middle 90's a good bet for the middle to latter half of the week! Some models have us getting as high as 97 degrees by the end of next week!! Any storm chances? Right now, storm chances look small, although the position of the ridge will be key. Right now I think the ridge will be close enough to keep any storm chances to our east, although if the ridge does not expand as far east as current models are showing, that could mean a slightly cooler scenario with more clouds and possible storm development, but I would count on it being hot and dry. The map below is the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day temperature outlook. Notice how much of the country is going to see above average temperatures! 

DROUGHT DEVELOPING?
As you know, things have been pretty dry as of late, especially for central Indiana, where we are now considered "abnormally dry" which is basically the beginning stages of a drought. The hot weather next week certainly won't help things out.  

SUMMER HEAT IS BACK!

After a very long period of temperatures that felt more like fall over the past several weeks, today was the first day in a long time that is actually felt like summer is supposed to. Official high in Indianapolis reached 86, which is actually a couple degrees above normal.

Tomorrow's forecast literally looks like a carbon repeat of today. Patchy morning fog, mostly sunny skies, with highs in the middle 80's. Humidity will be a bit higher than we saw today however.

Humidity will really be on the rise Wednesday-Friday. With a better flow from the gulf, some summer-time thunderstorms may pop-up with the main storm chances favoring folks in the southeast half of Indiana. Some of you may see locally heavy downpours in a short amount of time, while many areas also stay dry. Highs during this time should run generally in the middle 80's, with the humidity making it feel several degrees warmer.

A ridge out in the Plains will begin to flex its muscles for the upcoming weekend into next week, meaning even hotter stuff may head our way. Highs for the weekend will reach the upper 80's to near 90, then the low/mid 90's are a real possibility for early next week assuming the models are correct. 

If you are a summer weather fan, this is the forecast for you! It will be nice to actually have some summer weather again!! Have a great night and take care! 

Good evening, gang! Sorry I have neglected the blog much of the summer. Don't worry, I still love weather and miss posting on here. With college now in the picture, I can't promise an update everyday, but your friendly weather dude will try his best to keep this website more updated, along with Facebook as well. :) 

Where do I start. What a summer this has been for the Hoosier state! I mean, it's been wonderful. The farmers have had wonderful luck with plenty of rainfall, and the temperatures have been WAYYYY below average, especially over the past four weeks. So far this August, we have recorded several mornings with lows dropping into the 40's in parts of the area. I have no words, that is just so insane. 

What a change from last summer. Basically there is just no comparison. Last year at this point Indianapolis already recorded 49 days at or above 90, with 9 days above 100. This year, only 5 90 degree days so far. So now you ask, why has this summer been so different? In simple terms, the jet stream pattern across North America has been quite different from last summer. Take a look at the map below of the jet stream pattern from last summer.

Notice last summer we had a constant ridge over the eastern part of the country resulting in blazing hot temperatures over long periods of time. As drought developed in the area, this only helped to make temperatures even more unbearable, as drought conditions are breeding ground for temperatures to soar with no trouble. Notice on the map below, the overall jet stream pattern for this summer is WAY WAY different than 2012's.

There are other factors I could go on about, but I know that would bore you guys. 

So how's the weather shaping over over the next week? It will actually be quite different and a rarity for this summer. It will actually "feel" like August. Heat and humidity will be the main headlines. Highs each day should top out between 85-90, with humidity on the rise each day, feeling pretty uncomfortable by the middle of the week. Storm chances are very small each day, only about a 10-20% chance of a stray pop-up storm each afternoon. 

Thanks for reading the blog, have a great evening!

SUMMER WARMTH TODAY GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER BLAST OF FALL AIR!

Good morning! Today will be basically a typical mid-August day with highs in the middle 80's and a few pop-up storms. Best storm chances arrive tonight as a cold front moves through. Rain totals will mainly be 1/4" or less, but isolated higher amounts can't be ruled out. Not a soaking rain by any means. 

MUCH COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN.. Just as it starts to feel like summer again, the hammer drops again as another round of cool Canadian air moves in. Expect comfortable temperatures and low humidity from tomorrow through the end of the week. Highs will mainly run in the 70's, with lows in the 50's, with a few 40's likely for tomorrow night! Sunshine will be abundant each day. It just doesn't get much better than that, especially since this is the time of year that we usually see the hottest days of the summer. 

ARE WE DONE WITH SUMMER? With the cool summer we have had and the upcoming blast of fall-like temperatures, one must wonder if fall is coming super early, or if summer heat will ever return. Just because we are seeing cool weather now doesn't mean summer is out of the cards or that fall is arriving very early. It looks like hot and humid summer weather will try to move back in next week. In fact, a couple 90 degree days are showing up in the long range. Don't give up on summer yet, we still have a little more than a full month before summer ends. 

Thanks for reading the blog. Have a great day!

Weather Blog (8/8) STORMS IN THE FORECAST - WHAT FOGGY MORNINGS SAY ABOUT UPCOMING WINTER

STORMS IN THE FORECAST: Scattered storms will remain in the forecast today and tomorrow for the entire area, before shifting to areas south for the weekend. Not a guarantee your area will see any storms over the next few days, but those who do could see quick hitting torrential downpours. This time of year, fronts have a hard time trying to push very far south of the Ohio River, and this one is no exception. Showers and storms will remain a threat in the proximity of the front. The front should still be close enough that areas south of Bloomington and Columbus will have a lingering storm chance through the weekend, with the highest chance Saturday. Still, do not expect a washout. Central and northern Indiana will have no threat of rain for the weekend due to them being farther from the front. Drier air will settle in making it feel more comfortable out. Highs will generally range from the upper 70's to middle 80's. Don't forget you can keep an eye on radar whenever you want by clicking the "radars" tab at the top.

FOGGY MORNINGS AND UPCOMING WINTER? There is a long standing folklore that the number of foggy mornings in August will be equal to the amount of snowfalls for the upcoming winter. We have had several foggy mornings already this month. 

Thanks for reading the blog, have a great day!