HEAVY SNOW BURST WITH ARCTIC AIR

SNOW BURSTS & SLICK ROADS... What a way to return to winter after a spring-like first half of the week! The set-up today is very similar to a summer day. Snow bursts and squalls developed under the unstable atmosphere today, and peeks of sun from time to time fueled these heavy bands that produced white-out conditions in spots this afternoon and evening. Some areas saw a few flakes, while other spots receive an inch or more. A clipper system helped enhance the snowfall south of I-70 and all across southern Indiana this evening. Snow is still falling pretty hard in parts of extreme southern Indiana. The counties in blue across southern Indiana are under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 2am. Many of these counties should end up between 1-2" of snow. Bottom line, do not travel unless it is necessary.

The snow showers continue off/on until late tonight, then mainly dry by the morning commute. However, the roads will likely be SLICK. Allow yourself extra time to reach your destination. Not only that, dangerously cold as well. Temps tomorrow morning will be in the single digits, with wind chills BELOW ZERO. Plenty of school delays already coming in for tomorrow morning. 

BIGGER SNOWS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... Based on the latest data, some areas will be dealing with decent snow amounts this weekend. Several disturbances bring snow chances off and on Saturday through Sunday. The biggest hit of snowfall looks to be late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon, then off/on snow showers lasting through Sunday. 

HOW MUCH? Here is my early GUESS on snow potential..

That is still subject to change, so keep it here. I will have another blog update later tomorrow with the latest on the weekend snow potential.

Thanks for stopping by! Have a great night. 

Weather Gone Crazy!

To say this is one busy forecast is an understatement. Mother nature is very moody, so expect wild and drastic changes in the weather through the next several days. Whatever weather floats your boat, we will have it at some point this week. 

RECORD WARMTH & SEVERE STORMS... Here are the latest severe weather maps from the SPC.

The severe risk comes for late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning, when a powerful line of storms pushes through the state. As mentioned yesterday, the winds aloft are incredibly strong, and it's possible for the strongest storms to tap into these winds and produce damaging winds. 

This is not a widespread severe weather outbreak, but isolated severe storms producing damaging winds are a real possibility. I have to mention that an isolated tornado isn't out of the question either. The timing of these storms moving across the state from west to east looks to be from 1-5am. 

On another note, a flood watch is in effect for all of central Indiana, with the potential for 1-3" of rain. Much of this falls tomorrow night, so keep this in mind. The Wednesday morning commute to work could be a mess with flooding and heavy rains/storms still in the area at that time.

I can't forget to mention the warmth for tomorrow! I think southern Indiana has a real chance to hit 70, especially if the sun comes out during the afternoon. I think central/northern Indiana stays stuck in the clouds, rain longer through the day, but breaks in the rain during the afternoon. Highs across the rest of Indiana reach the low/middle 60's! 

MUCH COLDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... Temperatures will begin to tumble during the afternoon Wednesday, with the potential for rain changing to snow showers during the afternoon and evening. Northern parts of the state could even get a light accumulation. A day that starts with spring temps and severe storms ends with snow. Not crazy or anything. :) 

NOW THE ARCTIC AIR... The cold air continues to filter in through the end of the week. Highs will drop in the 20's for many areas Thursday and Friday, and some spots by Friday morning will be back in the single digits! 

SNOW CHANCES... There may be a few flurries Thursday night, but the main system of notice is a clipper coming in Saturday. Some of the models hint at some snow accumulations during this time. Check out the latest GFS:

That model wants to bring 1-2" of snow across much of the Ohio Valley Saturday. Still waaaay too early to even know if this system is legit or not, so let's worry more about this when we get there. 

Lots of weather to get through. I will have more updates as needed on my Facebook weather page. If you haven't "liked" it yet, the link to my page is at the top of the website. Have a great night, and thanks for reading. 

Wild Weather Pattern For The Next Week!

Good evening. Finally most areas saw sunny skies today, and high temperatures getting closer to normal. The warming trend continues for the next several days, as a very active period of weather takes over. 

We have a tricky situation setting up for tomorrow evening. As precipitation arrives, temperatures at the surface from Indy northward will near freezing. It appears an icing event is likely. Northern Indiana is under a winter weather advisory.

I think Indy could see a period of ice from 4-8pm, but I think Indy may be lucky enough to dodge a bullet when it comes to the ice. *This is a set-up where a degree or two could make all the difference.* It is NORTH of Indy where major travel problems could occur during the evening and part of the overnight, especially the farther north you go. It sure doesn't take much ice to cause MAJOR travel problems. Please be on alert for this tomorrow afternoon/evening from Indianapolis and points north. Watch those thermometers as well, that will be key!

The warmer air takes over overnight tomorrow, and temperatures by early Monday morning will make it in the low 40's, ensuring anything that falls will be rain. The rain comes in waves for Monday, with a south breeze kicking in and highs soaring into the upper 40's north to middle 50's south. 

A STRONG warm-up on southerly winds takes hold on Tuesday, with Indiana positioned south of a warm front and east of a cold front, which is the prime spot to be in for warm temps! Temperatures soar to 20+ degrees warmer than normal across the state, which puts highs ranging from the middle 50's north to middle 60's in southern Indiana. 

While scattered showers/thunder are possible at anytime during the day Tuesday, I don't think it will be a washout. Attention turns to overnight Tuesday for intense heavy rains, high winds, and a few thunderstorms. Check out the wind shear with this system on the graphic below. Despite very little instability considering the front swings through during the night, these high winds aloft are sufficient enough to support a isolated damaging wind threat.

After that, temperatures start to tumble again. Look for temperatures starting to fall by Wednesday afternoon, with some scattered shower activity possible switching to snow showers Wednesday night, as harsh January reality comes rushing back in. 

An arctic air mass will take over again late next week, with highs temps back in the 20's, and lows in the teens. We may have to watch for some snow showers during this time as well. (Thursday-Saturday)

Here is the 7 day forecast. To say the next week is a roller coaster ride would be an understatement. Buckle up and enjoy the ride! 

Thanks for reading the blog. Have a terrific night. 

Latest On Friday's Snow Potential

I have been talking about a storm system late this week for several days now. A couple of days ago, it looked as if this could become a winter storm for the area. The models have backed off that idea since yesterday, and it now looks like light snow will be possible.

There are two systems passing through on Friday. One to the north, and one to the south. They look to remain separate, so in turn, this is not a big deal for us, but not a no show.

Model Analysis:
Let's start with the GFS, or American model. It is doing a good job with the system, in my opinion. It shows precipitation breaking out near daybreak Friday, then steady light snow lasting through early afternoon. The GFS for noon Friday actually shows widespread light to moderate snow falling over the state. 

Here is what the model shows for snow accumulations:

Next, let's look at the NAM. Here is what the model shows for noon Friday.

There is a pretty big difference between the GFS and NAM. The NAM keeps the two systems separate like all the other models, but it wants to keep much of central Indiana totally dry. The model spits out light accumulations for northern and southern Indiana, and central Indiana right in between the two systems staying dry. 

The European model paints a general inch of snow across the entire state.

My thoughts: When forecasting, it is important to use common sense, notice trends such as what weather model(s) have been more reliable as of late, along with pattern recognition. The GFS has actually done a pretty good job here recently, and the European always does a good job. So based on those two models, it looks plausible that light snow accumulations on the order of 1-2" looks likely for Friday. The NAM model is the outlier for my forecast. *Just because we are talking light accumulations, doesn't mean travel won't be greatly impacted. With arctic air still in place, surface temperatures are very cold, and all snow that falls will stick. I think slick roads are likely when the snow hits Friday, even if it's just light flurries coming down at times. *


Timing: Snow flurries look to begin during the pre-dawn hours of Friday, 4-7 am, then several hours of steady, light snow look likely from 8am-1pm. This will be a very fast moving system. 


Thanks for reading, have a great night. God bless! 

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Extremely Cold Air - Snow Chances This Week

EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES...

The arctic air continues to move into the Hoosier state. The temperatures over the next few days will be the coldest in two years, and a couple of mornings will be dangerously cold factoring in wind chills. How do wind chills as low as 15 below zero sound? That is certainly possible by tomorrow evening and night. Temperatures tonight fall into the teens, stay there all day tomorrow, then the combo of clear skies and lighter winds set the stage for the extreme arctic cold Tuesday morning. Lows could fall close to zero degrees. Highs on Tuesday will slowly make it into the teens, but back in the single digits Tuesday night. Get ready to put your furnace in over-drive!! 

SNOW CHANCES...

While flurries are possible off and on between now and Tuesday night, accumulations will be little to none, and shouldn't  cause any travel problems. 

The area with the biggest snow chance will be extreme northern Indiana. The lake-effect snow machine will get going, and some areas like South Bend, Goshen and points northward could see several inches if the bands set-up just right. 


Somewhat milder air should try to work in during the day Wednesday, with more tolerable high temperatures in the 20's. This now leads to the fun part of the forecast. The potential for accumulating snow! 

A storm system is brewing Thursday into Friday. This has been on the models for a few days now, but the models are struggling with the track, and how much cold air. The models are notorious for pushing out arctic air masses too quick. I think the models will trend a bit colder and farther south with the track as we get closer. This storm has the potential to bring ice, and several inches of snow to the state. The current model runs would suggest it would get warm enough for a rain/snow/ice mix on Thursday, then a switch to all snow overnight Thursday into Friday. Here is the area where I think the highest chances are for a decent snowfall for now. That may need pushed south or even north a bit as we get closer. 

I will have updates on that system over the next few days. It needs to be watched CLOSELY. Behind that system, another decent shot of cold air appears likely to begin next weekend. 

Thanks for reading. Have a great night, God bless. 

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POLAR PLUNGE IS ALMOST HERE - SNOW CHANCES TOO!

I hope everyone was able to enjoy the awesome weather we had out there today. Temps in the 50's and a brilliant blue sky is hard to come by in January. The bad part is.. the warmer it felt today, the colder it will feel over the next week. 

Check out the current temperature map across the country. Notice the cold air has reached south of the Canada, and is continuing it's trip to the Hoosier state. 

We will begin to feel the cold air later tonight/tomorrow, with a cold front moving through. Temperatures from the morning low to afternoon high tomorrow will be similar, despite some sun, due to brisk northwest winds driving in the colder air. Temperatures will be in the upper 20's and low 30's. 

Arctic air (sub-zero lows)? Get ready for a visit from the arctic Monday and Tuesday, which is a guest that never showed up last year. Highs for Monday will be a struggle to even reach 20, and all areas should stay in the teens Tuesday. Those are high temperatures! Monday night looks to be the coldest night with low temperatures dropping down between -3 to 3 above if we can get the skies to clear which I think will happen. Lows Tuesday night will again drop to single digits. Get ready for your furnace to work in overdrive!!

How about snow chances? There has been quite a bit of debate about whether we will get any snow with the bitter cold. The chances of snow are never huge locally when the air gets so cold, because the colder it gets, the drier the air gets as well. However, this is a prime set-up for lake-effect snow for northern Indiana. Some spots up there could even get a few inches with the lake-effect bands. Here in central and southern Indiana, while flurries locally are possible at any time Monday and Tuesday, it appears a weak clipper system moving through Tuesday night will bring the best chance of getting any snow with the arctic air. I don't see anything but a dusting with that for now. 

The forecast towards the end of next week looks very interesting and quite challenging to say the least. The models have been showing a system moving through the region during the Thursday/Friday, but the track and how much we warm up remain the big questions. One thing I have learned about forecasting, is that the computer models like to get rid of arctic air way faster than usually is the case. In these set-ups, it is best to use common sense, and watch the model trends. The European model shows no warm-up, keeps the cold air intact, and tracking the storm system south of us, bringing several inches of snow to the state. 

The GFS does not agree with the Euro right now, and wants to warm us up, and track the system to the lakes. This set-up would mean a rain to snow situation, with most of the accumulating snow staying in northern Indiana and Michigan.

So now you ask, which model is right? Well in this case, I have to use common sense forecasting and go by what scenario seems more realistic to the weather pattern. Right now the colder/snowy Euro solution seems to fit the pattern much better, as the GFS showing a system tracking off to our north right after a shot of bitter cold air just doesn't make sense. So right now, I think the chances of snow and little or no warm-up for the next week is likely. The trends in the models over the next few days will be interesting, but I feel like the GFS should trend colder towards the Euro solution as we get closer. Expect at least some changes so continue to check back! Thanks for reading. 

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Alabama Winter Storm - Brief Weekend Warm-Up Before Polar Plunge Early Next Week!

Sorry about not posting any blogs in a while. I've been busy with school, and my WiFi at home has not been working. Snow continues to fall in unusual places, in the DEEP SOUTH! Winter storm warnings continue for parts of Mississippi, Alabama, all the way up to the mid-Atlantic. Check out this picture from the campus at University of Alabama..

I found this picture on Facebook implying to how folks in the south are dealing with the snow. Well actually, it's pretty much implies for around here, too. ;)

If your a snow-lover here in Indiana, the chances of getting snow anytime soon is quite small. Yes some flurries in the extended forecast, but by no means a snowstorm.

A mini warm-up is on the way for the next couple days, before the bottom falls out. Highs tomorrow and Saturday should be above average, in the 40's. Southern Indiana has a shot at 50-53 for Saturday afternoon with strong WAA (warm air advection)

The colder air begins to come down for Sunday, with high temperatures for Sunday 10-20 degrees colder than Saturday.

The REAL COLD STUFF arrives Monday and Tuesday. A true arctic air mass will come in from Canada, with high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday in the teens for many areas, and low temps in the single digits! Watch the time-frame from Monday through Tuesday for a little system to bring some LIGHT snow action to the area. Check out the ECMWF for next Tuesday, just look at that cold air over our area! BRRR is right!

However, this is not a sustained bitter cold pattern. Temperatures could soar above freezing by the end of the week! 

Thanks for reading! Have a great rest of your day. God bless.

60's on the way - flooding this weekend?

WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...

Can you find the warm front? :) Check out the latest temperature map. That's right! 60's in southwest Indiana, and 30's to the northeast. That is one big temperature spread.

Temperatures are only going up from here. Temperatures will be in the 50's area-wide by tomorrow morning. Highs tomorrow hit the 60's!

HOW ABOUT RAIN CHANCES?

A round of very intense rainfall looks to move through between 3-7am across the state. Areas south of I-70 may see a couple thunderstorms as well. However, no severe weather likely. Up to 1" of rain area wide possible from now through tomorrow morning.

Friday afternoon looks GREAT! We we should see some breaks in the clouds, (ESP SOUTH AND WEST OF INDY) with breezy conditions and highs warming in the 60's! It's been a while since we have seen temps that warm, and since it has been so cold lately, it will feel more like 70's for sure. 

WEEKEND RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE...

Saturday looks to start dry, but it won't end that way! The next system will work in from the south by Saturday afternoon/evening. Central and northern Indiana may stay dry until late afternoon, with the rain first arriving in southern Indiana. With the warm southerly flow, highs will once again warm in the 60's. 

Widespread heavy rains are a good bet overnight Saturday through Sunday. This system will bring 2" or more of rain potentially, with the total between now and Sunday night of 2-5" of rain, with up to 6" in parts of southern Indiana. You add that to the already soggy ground from nearly a foot of melted snow, flooding could be a major issue for some areas, especially those lowland areas, and those near rivers/creeks. The map shown below is the HPC rainfall forecast between now and early next week..

If you live in a flood-proned area, I think it would be a good idea to get some sandbags. Better safe than sorry for sure! 

The weather will turn much colder again next week, with a sneaky system that will need watched to bring a round of wintry weather to parts of the Ohio Valley early next week. 

Thanks for reading the blog. Have a great rest of the evening. 

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Warm Temps and Heavy Rains On The Way

HUGE WARM-UP STILL ON THE WAY...

I put together the GFS temperature maps for the next several days, you can see the progression of the warm-up....

I think the temperature forecast is tricky for the next couple days considering the snow still on the ground, but I think we should still manage to reach the 40's for highs in many areas tomorrow and Wednesday. By Thursday, parts of southern Indiana reach the 50's, with central and north in the 40's. Temps reach the 50's and 60's Friday and Saturday!!!

RAIN CHANCES/FLOODING POTENTIAL...

Dry weather is the rule through Wednesday, then it's a WET forecast! Widespread rains and will work south to north across the state throughout the day Thursday into Thursday night. With this system alone up to 1" of rain is possible. This is the HPC rainfall potential through Friday.

Other than a spotty shower, much of Friday and early Saturday will be all about the warmth!! Our next system arrives Saturday during the day right into Sunday. This system will track toward the Lakes, with the warmth rain, and thunder ahead of it, then a sharp drop in temperatures later Sunday, as much colder air rushes in behind the system. With that system 1-2" of rain will be possible as well. With all that said including Thursday's storm system, check out how much water could accumulate between now and then...

That's a widespread 2-3" of rainfall. I certainly think there will be higher totals closer to the Ohio River, with the already melting snow pack plus the heavy rain, flood prone areas need to keep a close eye on future forecasts. Thanks for reading!

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Wintry Weather For Sunday - Warmer Next Week

Good evening! Hope everyone has had a great Saturday. Before I get on to the weather, I want to say thanks for all the kind words and prayers for my sister, Brittany. They mean more than I could ever tell you or show you. We are faced with very tough decisions that need made, and need continued prayers for her health, and wisdom to go in the right direction. 

A day that started with sunshine quickly turned cloudy, and some areas saw scattered showers and snow move through. There is still a risk of spotty mixed precipitation, but more than likely there will be no travel problems out there. 

Sunday isn't looking like a very nice weather day out there. There will be very scattered light mixed precipitation, with temperatures holding steady in the low 30's, perhaps dropping into the 20's in some areas late in the day. A gusty west wind will make it feel much colder. A good day to stay inside and watch the Colts. By the way if your wondering about the weather in Baltimore for the game, the weather looks dry with temperatures in the 40's during the game.

We have some great weather moving in for the beginning of the week, with sunshine returning, and a warm-up. We start off Monday morning in the teens for many areas, but sunshine and a southwest wind will boost those temps in the 30's, with some low 40's for southern parts of the state. Tuesday looks to add several degrees on to Monday's high.

A storm system looks to impact the area late Wednesday through Thursday, but it will be warm enough for a plain rain event. Temperatures will soar well-above normal.

It looks like another system could bring rain to the state next Saturday. Looking at temperatures, by next Saturday much of the state could be looking at high temperatures in the 50's, 60 for southern Indiana is not out of the question. ENJOY THE WARMTH, the cold weather looks to come back in full force for the second half of the month. I think the end of the month could offer up record cold for our area. At first I think the arctic air will get stuck to our west, thanks to the ridge in the southeast. In time, that ridge should break-down and drive that arctic air into the Ohio Valley for the latter part of January. 

Sorry I have no images for this post. I know reading plain ol' text alone can be quite boring! :) If your still reading this thanks for stopping by my weather blog. Have a great rest of the weekend, God bless.

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A few flurries this weekend - warmer next week

Good afternoon. After a very active and snowy period last week, (15" of snow in 6 days) mother nature has finally given us a break, and in fact, there really hasn't been much happening weather-wise this week, except cold temperatures. The morning lows have dropped near 0 in some areas over the past several mornings, thanks to clear skies and snow on the ground.

Out of all places getting a winter storm in the U.S., it is southwest Texas today! Some of those areas could pick up 8" of snow. I'm sure snow-lovers in Chicago are shaking their heads right about now, because Chicago hasn't even received their first inch of snow yet this season. 

For us, the only system of note is a very weak system passing over-head later Saturday into Sunday. Light snow showers or basically flurries are possible with this, but no accumulation out of this. Not even enough to cause any travel issues the way it looks at this time. Below is a look at the GFS for this time-frame, and it is showing basically light flurries passing by.

Temperatures will run close to the freezing mark this weekend, but we will warm way above freezing as we head into next week. It looks like we may hit the 40's by Tuesday, and the 40's may continue for much of the second half of next week!

The milder pattern doesn't look to last too long. I think a colder and stormier pattern should return by mid-month. The image below is the European model 240 hours out, showing colder air sweeping in from the west by the 13th.

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