Tracking A Winter Storm For Northern Indiana Tomorrow - Snow Chances For Everyone Mid-Week

Good evening. The forecast is very complicated for tomorrow, no doubt about that. Northern Indiana is going to get hit with ice and snow, with major impacts to travel likely if your headed toward the northern 1/3rd of the state tomorrow. 

Here is a look at the GFS through the day tomorrow. Notice it keeps Indy just warm enough for rain. This model indicates north-central Indiana getting ice in the morning before switching to rain for a while during the afternoon. Northern Indiana will stay cold enough for snow, possibly mixing with ice. 

Based on that, here is my thinking for tomorrow. The precipitation moves in after 3/4am. I think the areas in the pink could have impacts with some freezing rain for the morning rush hour. I do think most of the counties in pink switch over to rain for a time tomorrow. The counties in blue will be snow, possibly mixed with sleet and ice for a time. Several inches of snow likely for South Bend and Gary. My forecast matches up with the current winter weather advisory issued by the National Weather Service for all counties in the pink and blue shadings. 

If your a snow-lover not in the area getting snow with this system, we are NOT done.  The system stalls out tomorrow night near Lake Erie, with colder air wrapping around the system. Rain showers will change to snow showers gradually from northwest to southeast late tomorrow night. This process may take until Wednesday morning for southern Indiana. 

Wednesday looks quite snowy. Widespread snow showers are likely for the entire state, with many areas likely to see a white ground at some point. The good part is temperatures will be above freezing, so roads may be in decent shape despite the snow showers. Locally heavy bands are possible, especially for areas north of I-70. Right now, I think areas along and north of I-70 could see anywhere from 1-3" (closer to 1-2" for Indy metro). That will be the additional accumulation on top of what falls tomorrow for northern Indiana. Southern Indiana could see localized 1" amounts. 

The pattern ahead looks quite cold and perhaps snowy for the first half of March. There are two other systems to watch closely (one possibly around March 6th, and the second around March 10th). The CPC is calling for a warmer than normal March for the entire area. I do NOT see any support to their thinking. The data points to much below normal temperatures for the next couple weeks at least. I guess we'll wait and see.





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Wintry MESS Likely Thursday Night!

Hard to believe 24 hours ago from right now temperatures were around 60 degrees with sunshine, to the 20's now with snow showers! Days like yesterday had me craving for spring weather to stay, and for winter to get out of here! The pattern ahead has the word "winter" written all over it. Sorry spring weather lovers, just have patience. :)

The snow showers out there today will not amount to much, as the bigger story is the cold weather. We clear out tonight, with temperatures in the lower teens tomorrow morning! ONLY 20's for highs tomorrow, which is way below the average high in the 40's. At least we should see sunshine, and plenty of it.

The main point of this blog is about the stuff coming in Thursday night. Let's go over a couple computer models and what they are showing, then I will explain my thoughts.

GFS - 

Here is a look at the snowfall accumulation from the same model:

If that model comes to fruition, that would mean snow and freezing rain for Indy, with more snow than ice north. For southern Indiana, this model indicates freezing rain being the big threat before changing to ran towards morning.

NAM -

Here is what the same model shows for snowfall accumulations:

Obviously this model is warmer than the GFS. This model indicates mainly rain for southern Indiana, with ice the main threat in central Indiana, with snow/sleet/ice mixed for northern Indiana. 

MY THOUGHTS: I think it's safe to say the NAM model looks just too warm for this event. Arctic air is in place ahead of this event, and I just don't see enough warming that southern Indiana misses out on the ice. I think ALL of Indiana will get different forms of wintry precipitation. The GFS model looks like the way to go, but I think that that model still may be a bit too warm. Models tend to overdue warm air in these set-ups. Here is my current thinking:

Central Indiana: Starts as snow, with a quick 1-2" possible. As warm air overrides the surface, snow changes over to sleet and freezing rain. A tenth or a little more of ice would be possible on top of the snow. 

Southern Indiana: Starts as a wintry mix, then a period of plain freezing rain, before switching to all rain during the night. Ice accumulations of .10" or a bit more possible before the switch to rain late in the night.

Northern Indiana: SNOW is the main precipitation type. Areas near Kokomo, Lafayette, Muncie, Peru will probably switch to freezing rain and sleet by Friday morning as the warmer air tries to build in. Anywhere from 1-3" seems likely in this area

BOTTOM LINE: No matter what, we aren't talking high precipitation amounts, but this will cause MAJOR travel headaches. If you have travel plans during this time, stay up to date to the forecast. If the current forecast holds, I would see winter weather advisories and other winter headlines coming out ahead of this system.

Cold Weekend - Very Active Next Week

Thanks for stopping by the blog!! No doubt about it, it is a COLD day out! Temperatures today only warm a few more degrees out there, in the upper 20's. Add in the breeze, it will feel even colder. Still some instability left for isolated snow showers/flurries, but I don't expect accumulations locally. However, much different story for extreme northern Indiana counties! Lake-effect snow will continue through tomorrow morning, with decent snow totals on top of what has already fallen. The counties outlined in light blue are under a lake effect snow advisory until 4am Sunday EST. 

A bit milder air gradually works in by tomorrow, with temperatures hitting the 30's, to near 40 south. South winds race in ahead of the system for Monday, with highs surging in the 50's south of Indy, with 40's in northern Indiana. Very wet for President's Day afternoon/night, with colder air changing the rain briefly to snow, but little accumulation expected. Cold/dry weather can be expected Tuesday & Wednesday before the next storm arrives Thursday/Friday. I am watching this one closely, this has the potential to be a winter storm for parts of the state. STAY TUNED!






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TODAY'S BLOG: Snowy Photos From Southern Indiana Today

A quick hitting system produced accumulating snow across southern Indiana this morning, mainly reports of 1-3". Even a couple 4" reports!! Until the event unfolded, I did not expect accumulations from this. Why? Well, because the temperatures this morning were in the upper 30's to near 40 across southern Indiana. As the precipitation unfolded, heavy bands of precipitation developed, and dynamic cooling from this system allowed everything to fall as snow, and temperatures to drop several degrees to near freezing. CHECK OUT these pics posted below. These are all photos that were posted on the WDRB Weather page on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/WDRBWeather


FRENCH LICK, IN



PEKIN, IN


SELLERSBURG, IN


CRANDALL, IN


LEOTA, IN


UNDERWOOD:

Tracking East Coast Blizzard - A Look At the Forecast Ahead Locally!

Good evening! The main weather story continues to be the raging blizzard (Winter Storm Nemo) that has basically shut down the northeast U.S! This area basically had a NO winter last year, and boy they are making up fast! Check out all that snow on live radar..

Here's the deal. Wind gusting near 60 mph in Boston, thunder, lightning, to go along with near 3 feet of snow by time the storm moves out. Boston is likely to see 2-4" an HOUR for most of the night! The entire state of Massachusetts is under a NO TRAVEL ban. Some areas here at 9pm in Connecticut and Rhode Island already over a foot, and the snow just started this afternoon. New York City is also being slammed too, with perhaps up to 10" down in the city by tomorrow, but compared to what Boston is getting, New York dodges a bullet. This is quite the storm to say the least! The images below are from Accuweather...

Now to the weather locally. Tomorrow looks like a nice February day, with temperatures slightly above normal in the low 40's, along with a nice, sunny sky. A great day to do just about anything outdoors. 

Our next storm system to impact Indiana moves in for the second half of the weekend. The low pressure tracks well northwest of us, placing the entire area in the warm sector, meaning a south wind, warming temps, and rain/thunder likely by Sunday afternoon, and continuing through the night. As of now, .50-.75" area-wide looks like a good forecast. Here is how the GFS model handles this system...

After that, it looks like a more wintry pattern sets back in. Temperatures most of next week will be close to normal, but a bigger cold push of air looks possible at some point around the end of next week, and the colder weather pattern may hold through the second half of February. The GFS wants to bring some light snow as close as southern Indiana for Wednesday of next week, but the EURO model disagrees. Just have to keep an eye on model trends over the next few days. Will we have more snow chances with the colder air for the middle/end of the month? It looks like an active storm track is developing across the south during this time, which could put our area in an interesting spot for the potential of snow makers. We will have to wait until we get there for the details, but looking more favorable for SNOW lovers out there. :) 

Thanks for reading my blog! Hope everyone has a great weekend. God bless! 

AFTERNOON OUTLOOK.. Talk about a battle between clouds and blue sky! The skies are sunny across western & northern Indiana, but a rather gloomy sky overhead south and east of Indy, into much of southeastern Indiana. It is tough to get clouds to erode quickly this time of year due to the low sun angle, but I will stay optimistic that everyone sees at least some sun before the day is gone. 

SYSTEM TO WATCH TOMORROW..  After a mild Thursday, a line of showers looks to move across the state tomorrow evening. As colder air filters in during the night, the rain will change to snow briefly mainly north of I-70. Far northern Indiana could see accumulating snow, perhaps 1-3" for South Bend, Goshen areas, then little to no accumulation for the rest of the area. Right now I don't expect much if any accumulating snow in central Indiana. 

DRY START TO WEEKEND, WARMER & WET END? Great weather moves in for Friday and Saturday, with sunshine and temps near average. Warmer temperatures and rain looks likely later Sunday into Monday. I wouldn't rule out a couple thunderstorms for southern Indiana with this pattern set-up. Right now severe weather doesn't look too likely. Rainfall potential for now doesn't look too impressive locally, but heavy rains for parts of the south.

HISTORIC, MAJOR SNOWSTORM HEADED FOR THE NORTH-EAST.. A HUGE nor'easter is looking likely Friday-Friday night for the northeast. Winds gusting over 70 mph and snow up to 2-4 FEET deep is looking possible for areas from Boston up to Maine. CRAZY, CRAZY, CRAZY stuff. Definitely something to watch, especially if you have any travel plans or family in that area.

VALENTINE'S DAY SNOWSTORM FOR INDIANA?.. Well that is exactly what the GFS & ECMWF models are showing (attached below) for Indiana! Lots can change but definitely something to watch for all the snow-lovers dying for one more good storm before spring! :) 

Thanks for reading, have a great rest of the day.

Accumulating Snow This Weekend!

B.O.T.S everyone!! (Bring On The Snow) After a snowy Thursday, the arctic air has arrived, and dangerous wind chills have accompanied it. 

So let's get to the forecast. We are tracking a couple of "clipper" systems this weekend, and accumulating snows are likely. The NWS office out of Louisville has issued a Winter Weather Advisory. (counties in blue) I think more counties across central/northern Indiana should be added to the advisory. When/if they issue more advisories, I will update via Facebook/Twitter.

TIMING: It appears we are dealing with two rounds of snow. One round later tonight through mid-day Saturday, and round two hits Saturday night into early Sunday.

IMPACTS: Roads are likely to be slick when the snow falls, but I don't think people need to cancel their plans completely. There will be dry time especially tomorrow afternoon and evening before round #2 moves in. Plus, INDOT crews usually do a great job keeping the roads clean, am I right!? :) 

TOTALS: When all is said and done, here is what I expect for snowfall totals.

For those in central and northern Indiana that missed out on the snow yesterday, you will not be left out. 

**This forecast still has some uncertainty as clipper systems are tricky to forecast. Changes to the forecast are still possible between now and tomorrow.**

Thanks for stopping by the blog. Enjoy the rest of your day.