Thursday, August 22, 2013

A Look at Today's Rain Totals - Brief Drop in Humidity Before Major Heat Arrives!


FEAST OR FAMINE.. A LOOK AT TODAY'S RAIN
No surprise, but a lot of us MISSED OUT on the rain opportunity today. I mean check out the rainfall accumulation map. I picked up between .30-.35" of rain today with a downpour that moved over my house around 2PM. Just a couple miles from my house, not a drop fell.  VERY hit or miss. For Indianapolis, this now marks the 13th straight day with no rain recorded. We look to add several more days to that! 



BRIEF DROP IN HUMIDITY
As a cold front continues to push south of the state later tonight, winds from the north will help to usher drier, slightly more comfortable air into the state for our Friday and Saturday. Highs will still reach well into the 80's, but the drier air will allow overnight lows to be much cooler than the past several nights, so perhaps we can give the A/C a little break, because major heat is about to return! (details below)

HEAT WAVE COMING..HOTTEST OF SUMMER LIKELY!
As a ridge of high pressure to our west begins to expand into the Ohio Valley next week, it will bring very hot stuff our way. Each day next week looks to be 90 or higher, with middle 90's a good bet for the middle to latter half of the week! Some models have us getting as high as 97 degrees by the end of next week!! Any storm chances? Right now, storm chances look small, although the position of the ridge will be key. Right now I think the ridge will be close enough to keep any storm chances to our east, although if the ridge does not expand as far east as current models are showing, that could mean a slightly cooler scenario with more clouds and possible storm development, but I would count on it being hot and dry. The map below is the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day temperature outlook. Notice how much of the country is going to see above average temperatures! 





DROUGHT DEVELOPING?
As you know, things have been pretty dry as of late, especially for central Indiana, where we are now considered "abnormally dry" which is basically the beginning stages of a drought. The hot weather next week certainly won't help things out.  


Monday, August 19, 2013

SUMMER HEAT IS BACK!

After a very long period of temperatures that felt more like fall over the past several weeks, today was the first day in a long time that is actually felt like summer is supposed to. Official high in Indianapolis reached 86, which is actually a couple degrees above normal.

Tomorrow's forecast literally looks like a carbon repeat of today. Patchy morning fog, mostly sunny skies, with highs in the middle 80's. Humidity will be a bit higher than we saw today however.

Humidity will really be on the rise Wednesday-Friday. With a better flow from the gulf, some summer-time thunderstorms may pop-up with the main storm chances favoring folks in the southeast half of Indiana. Some of you may see locally heavy downpours in a short amount of time, while many areas also stay dry. Highs during this time should run generally in the middle 80's, with the humidity making it feel several degrees warmer.

A ridge out in the Plains will begin to flex its muscles for the upcoming weekend into next week, meaning even hotter stuff may head our way. Highs for the weekend will reach the upper 80's to near 90, then the low/mid 90's are a real possibility for early next week assuming the models are correct. 

If you are a summer weather fan, this is the forecast for you! It will be nice to actually have some summer weather again!! Have a great night and take care! 

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Good evening, gang! Sorry I have neglected the blog much of the summer. Don't worry, I still love weather and miss posting on here. With college now in the picture, I can't promise an update everyday, but your friendly weather dude will try his best to keep this website more updated, along with Facebook as well. :) 

Where do I start. What a summer this has been for the Hoosier state! I mean, it's been wonderful. The farmers have had wonderful luck with plenty of rainfall, and the temperatures have been WAYYYY below average, especially over the past four weeks. So far this August, we have recorded several mornings with lows dropping into the 40's in parts of the area. I have no words, that is just so insane. 

What a change from last summer. Basically there is just no comparison. Last year at this point Indianapolis already recorded 49 days at or above 90, with 9 days above 100. This year, only 5 90 degree days so far. So now you ask, why has this summer been so different? In simple terms, the jet stream pattern across North America has been quite different from last summer. Take a look at the map below of the jet stream pattern from last summer.

Notice last summer we had a constant ridge over the eastern part of the country resulting in blazing hot temperatures over long periods of time. As drought developed in the area, this only helped to make temperatures even more unbearable, as drought conditions are breeding ground for temperatures to soar with no trouble. Notice on the map below, the overall jet stream pattern for this summer is WAY WAY different than 2012's.

There are other factors I could go on about, but I know that would bore you guys. 

So how's the weather shaping over over the next week? It will actually be quite different and a rarity for this summer. It will actually "feel" like August. Heat and humidity will be the main headlines. Highs each day should top out between 85-90, with humidity on the rise each day, feeling pretty uncomfortable by the middle of the week. Storm chances are very small each day, only about a 10-20% chance of a stray pop-up storm each afternoon. 

Thanks for reading the blog, have a great evening!



Monday, August 12, 2013

SUMMER WARMTH TODAY GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER BLAST OF FALL AIR!

Good morning! Today will be basically a typical mid-August day with highs in the middle 80's and a few pop-up storms. Best storm chances arrive tonight as a cold front moves through. Rain totals will mainly be 1/4" or less, but isolated higher amounts can't be ruled out. Not a soaking rain by any means. 

MUCH COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN.. Just as it starts to feel like summer again, the hammer drops again as another round of cool Canadian air moves in. Expect comfortable temperatures and low humidity from tomorrow through the end of the week. Highs will mainly run in the 70's, with lows in the 50's, with a few 40's likely for tomorrow night! Sunshine will be abundant each day. It just doesn't get much better than that, especially since this is the time of year that we usually see the hottest days of the summer. 

ARE WE DONE WITH SUMMER? With the cool summer we have had and the upcoming blast of fall-like temperatures, one must wonder if fall is coming super early, or if summer heat will ever return. Just because we are seeing cool weather now doesn't mean summer is out of the cards or that fall is arriving very early. It looks like hot and humid summer weather will try to move back in next week. In fact, a couple 90 degree days are showing up in the long range. Don't give up on summer yet, we still have a little more than a full month before summer ends. 

Thanks for reading the blog. Have a great day!

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Weather Blog (8/8) STORMS IN THE FORECAST - WHAT FOGGY MORNINGS SAY ABOUT UPCOMING WINTER

STORMS IN THE FORECAST: Scattered storms will remain in the forecast today and tomorrow for the entire area, before shifting to areas south for the weekend. Not a guarantee your area will see any storms over the next few days, but those who do could see quick hitting torrential downpours. This time of year, fronts have a hard time trying to push very far south of the Ohio River, and this one is no exception. Showers and storms will remain a threat in the proximity of the front. The front should still be close enough that areas south of Bloomington and Columbus will have a lingering storm chance through the weekend, with the highest chance Saturday. Still, do not expect a washout. Central and northern Indiana will have no threat of rain for the weekend due to them being farther from the front. Drier air will settle in making it feel more comfortable out. Highs will generally range from the upper 70's to middle 80's. Don't forget you can keep an eye on radar whenever you want by clicking the "radars" tab at the top.

FOGGY MORNINGS AND UPCOMING WINTER? There is a long standing folklore that the number of foggy mornings in August will be equal to the amount of snowfalls for the upcoming winter. We have had several foggy mornings already this month. 

Thanks for reading the blog, have a great day!

Thursday, August 1, 2013

Weather Outlook Through the Weekend - August Outlook

Good morning. The past couple days have sure been on the dreary side weather-wise, kind of just depressing looking. The last day of July was the coolest one in 21 years for Indianapolis. Just crazy, plus we tied a 142 year old record for having 8 days in a row without hitting 80. Last July, we ended the month with 28 out of the 31 days above 90 degrees. (7 of those days above 100, I believe) You simply can't even compare the two months.

Ok, there is good news in the weather department today. Sunny skies can be expected throughout the afternoon, and the sunshine will try to warm us up into the lower 80's this afternoon, although areas northeast will likely stay in the 70's. The northwest breeze will help to dry the atmosphere out providing very comfortable humidity.

Soak up all the sunshine that you can today! Rain chances return tomorrow. Here is a look at the NAM simulated radar for tomorrow morning through Saturday morning.

It looks like a complex of rain will try to push in tomorrow morning, but will likely fall apart as it pushes through the area. I think most of tomorrow afternoon and evening will actually be pretty nice, with only a small rain chance. So if you're headed out to opening day of the Indiana State Fair, I think you should be ok. The highest chances of rain will arrive late tomorrow night through Saturday.

How much rain? It appears most of the area will see a range from .25"-.75".

Sunday looks beautiful with sunshine and highs in the upper 70's to near 80.

August Outlook: The updated outlook is in from the CPC. (Climate Prediction Center) It looks like the below average temperature trend will continue along with near normal rainfall for most locations, with above normal rain in far southern Indiana. For Indianapolis, the average high for the month of August is 84 degrees, and the average low is 64.4. Indy averages 3.13" of rainfall during the month. 


Thanks for stopping by Nathan Weather. Have a great day!