Tornado Outbreak Update - Latest Forecast Through Thanksgiving Week

It has been nice to have some calm weather over the past couple of days after the historic outbreak of tornadoes we just experienced on Sunday.  My prayers go out to everyone who has been displaced from their homes.  I could not even imagine.  Here is the latest on where the outbreak stands...

To put it briefly, temperatures will warm up back in the lower 50's tomorrow through Friday.  Enjoy some sunshine and dry weather tomorrow.  Rain chances return Thursday and Friday.  Right now, the wettest day appears to be Friday.  


The weekend will feature a HUGE dip in the jet stream.  Bottom line, it will get VERY cold!!  Any lingering precipitation Saturday morning could be in the form of snow flurries, but by Saturday afternoon and Sunday, dry weather will be the rule.  Obviously a much different weekend than the last one!  Temperatures Saturday will fall in the 30s through the day with teens Sunday morning.  Highs on Sunday will not get out of the 20s.  This is about 25 degrees off from normal.  Check out the arctic air mass spilling right into the Ohio Valley this weekend...

Temperatures will remain chilly for Thanksgiving week, with highs several days next week only in the 30s if current models are correct.  A couple of snow chances appear on the table, but these do NOT look like anything to get excited about at this point.  The forecast confidence for next week is low and subject to change.  

Thanks for reading!  As always, you can find more weather updates on my Facebook and Twitter pages.  

Severe Storms On Sunday

For this post, I am only going to be focusing on the severe weather potential on Sunday, since today and tomorrow will be fairly quiet with warming temps.

I have watched the models converge on an increasing idea of severe weather on Sunday.  A few of the things meteorologists look at to predict severe weather events are things such as wind shear and instability.  Let's dive in. 

WIND SHEAR

This looks impressive on Sunday.  This indicates that Sunday will be a windy day - storms or not, but this high wind shear aloft also means that storms could easily tap into it, and produce damaging winds here at the surface.  This can also aid in the development in tornadoes if these winds are turning enough in direction with height - also known as directional shear for the weather nerds out there.  The map below shows the 500 mb winds for 8pm Sunday evening.  That purple indicates winds over 100 knots blowing above our heads on Sunday!

The European shows a very similar set-up, although it does not indicate wind shear as extreme as the GFS.  

INSTABILITY

This appears to be slightly higher than the Halloween storm only because of timing.  GFS on the left and NAM on the right. Both images are 4pm Sunday.

MOISTURE

This looks impressive for mid-November with 60 degree dewpoints in many areas.  I am just showing the GFS model here.

TORNADO INDEX

One cool thing about the NAM model is that it can give tornado probs unlike other models.  It shows the best tornado potential to our west, but certainly showing a threat here too.

TIMING

It looks like most of the severe weather will be pushing through the region between 4pm and 10pm.  Before the main line pushes through, there may be some super cell storms that could become severe.  Something to watch.  

SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

The SPC has placed much of Indiana in a 30% risk for severe storms.  For SPC, that is a pretty high risk for 3 days out.

MY THOUGHTS:

I have no doubt that there will be some severe weather on Sunday, based on all the parameters we just discussed.  One thing that could hamper the risk slightly is if rain and clouds hold on Sunday - which I think has a decent chance of happening.  This would help keep instability levels in check.  However EVEN if we get no sun or dry time Sunday, the wind shear is high enough to compensate for that, and we would still have a risk for severe weather.  The highest threat Sunday evening is damaging winds without a doubt, with strong winds like that aloft.  I think we have a moderate risk for a few tornadoes.  Lower risks would include hail and flooding.  The Weather Channel gives tornado TOR-CON'S for regions when there is a potential for severe storms.  They are giving Indiana a 4 which means there is a 40% chance of a tornado within a 50 mile radius.  I want to stress I do not think this is a major outbreak like a March 2nd, 2012 event.  However, everyone in Indiana stands a chance for severe weather.  

I will have updates throughout the weekend on my Facebook page.  If you have not "LIKED" it yet on Facebook, you should go ahead and do that.  That way you will get my updates on what to expect.  

Have a great day, and stay safe.  

Arctic Air and Snow On The Way

The big changes that I have talked about for days is almost upon us.  Get ready for bitter cold temps.  It will feel like January over the next couple of days.

Today we will have increasing clouds with showers arriving in the evening from north to south.  Temperatures will vary with near 60 in far southern Indiana to the 40's north of I-70.

A rapidly moving area of rain and snow will work in through the evening.  It will start as rain, but as colder air works in, we will have a period of light snow.  I suspect the change to snow occurring in Indianapolis between 9 and 10 this evening, earlier to the north, and later than that south.  Here is what the radar should look like around 10pm...

A few slick spots are possible later this evening once the snow takes over, but should not cause too many problems thanks to the warm surface temperatures.  How much snow?  Not much!  Unless you are near the lake in northern Indiana!  From Indy and points north and east, a coating to 1" is possible, with only a dusting in spots southwest of there.  Here is my snowfall forecast...

If you are a snow lover, you need to head to areas between South Bend and Gary where several inches of snow may fall.  

The bigger story by all means is the cold air coming in.  When you step outside tomorrow morning, wind chills will be in the teens, with air temps in the 20's.  Temperatures tomorrow just won't warm up with highs in the low to mid 30's.  Factor in a gusty north wind, and wind chill readings will be stuck in the 20's.  I think many areas will be in the teens Wednesday morning!

The bitter cold does not hang too long, much warmer air will arrive by Thursday afternoon and beyond.  I will post a 7-day forecast on my Facebook page later today.  

Have a great day!