Thursday, January 30, 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN

Good evening!  Finally feeling MUCH better out there today.  How about this, the lows tonight will only drop a few degrees from where they are right now.  Mid to upper 20's tomorrow morning!  Heat wave!  :)  Lots to talk about in the weather world!  Parts of northern Indiana are going to get heavy snow this weekend, and there will be a widespread big storm next week.  I am going to start off with the storm for next week, since that is the BIG story right now.  First off, I want to note the trends on the modeling data over the past 24 hours:

-The models are trending north/west with the track of the storm.  Remember you want to be about 100+ miles northwest of the low track to get heavy snow.  The latest modeling data has the low tracking along the Ohio River, nearly the same track of the system back in early January.  

-Also, the models have trended MUCH lower on snowfall totals.  Some of the models were going just insane, trying to put down 20 - 30" in some areas.  Today----the models are now showing anywhere from 6-12" in the heaviest snow band!  Big difference, and that seems much more realistic.  

What we do know is that this is going to be a strong storm system lifting out of Texas and pushing northeast.  These storms are the kind that usually give us the big snows around here.  There is easily 1"+ of moisture that will be working through the state.  

The thing is, when these storms really gather strength and deepen, the Coriolis effect naturally causes the storm to pull poleward.  A "northward" shift always seems to occur with these storms as you get closer to the event.  The question becomes, will the "northward" trend continue, and put the snow band even farther north?  Not ruling that out yet, but with the presence of a high to our north, I think that will keep the storm from going "way" northward, but I will have to watch the trends over the next several days.  

I want to show the GFS model for 7pm Tuesday evening, when the heaviest precipitation would be falling over Indiana.  The blue is snow, the colors in the middle represent a wintry mix, and all that green across southern Indiana is rain.  Notice how it would indicate the heavy snow band to set up across the northern parts of the state, probably from near Indy and points north.  This model even has Indy on the edge, so according to this model, even a slight shift farther north would put Indy out of the heavy snow, which is possible.  



Interesting to note that the other models are looking rather similar to the GFS.  The EURO and Canadian are a bit farther southward with the heavy snow, but the clear northward shift from what the models showed a couple days ago.  These models would still hammer all of central and northern Indiana with the snow.  Expect changes in the models over the next few days, but the clear trend is for the snow axis to set up in central and northern parts of the state.  Perhaps a very similar track to the early January storm, which hammered areas from Indy/north, while areas south saw almost nothing.  The bottom line is the forecast is far from set in stone.  Just have to continue watching the trends and I will keep you updated over the next several days.  In my honest opinion.. I think the snow sets up from I-70 north, with much of southern Indiana seeing more rain that snow.  Way to early to make a certain call and I'm not, but based on how these systems normally track that seems like the most likely scenario. 

Now to the weekend system.  The NWS has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for extreme north/west parts of the state: 


It appears some waves of light snow mixed with rain south during the day tomorrow.  Perhaps some minor accumulations here and there but no big deal.  It is later tomorrow night when the precipitation really ramps up across the area.  At this time, it could start off as some freezing rain and snow for the Indy metro Friday night with rain south, transitioning to all rain as we head into Saturday morning.  As we head through the day Saturday, the rain/snow line moves way north, all the way towards far northern Indiana.  By Saturday night, the precipitation could end as some snow before moving out.  The snow axis has shifted northward from yesterday.  Now the heavy snow band of 5-8" is going to set up from South Bend to Gary, to Chicago.  Lighter totals south of there of 1-3" are possible, with a 1" possible in Indy.  To clarify: this snowfall map is ONLY for the weekend system.  This is NOT a map for next week's storm.  This map only goes out to 7pm Sunday.  



Some of the models are trying to push another wave through just to our south late Sunday into Monday.  This could graze far southern Indiana with light snow Sunday night.  

So there you go, a very changeable, challenging forecast!  Keep checking back for updates!  

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Busy Winter Pattern Taking Shape

Good afternoon!  Overall not a bad day all considered with the sunshine and "warmer" temps in the 20's.  Big improvement from yesterday.  I tell you what, the next 7-10 days are going to be very busy in the weather world.  Tracking a wintry mix potential Friday through Saturday, and perhaps a much bigger storm next week.  

LATE WEEK - WEEKEND: Before I talk about next week, we have plenty to watch for as we head into late week.  A stalled boundary will set up, causing overrunning precipitation across the Hoosier state.  For Friday, it looks like snow and sleet will break out across the central and northern parts of the state.  Southern Indiana could see a wintry mix as well.  By Friday night, we will have continued warm air advection.  This means areas SOUTH of I-70 should shift to plain rain late Friday night and during the day Saturday.  NORTH OF I-70, a different story perhaps.  It appears the northern half of the area may stay all snow, or a mix, which will obviously beef up snow totals.  As colder air filters back in Saturday night, areas south of I-70 could end with a touch of snow.  It is beginning to look like significant snow accumulations are possible across much of northern Indiana.  Check out the latest GFS and NAM snowfall forecasts posted below.  I-70 could literally be the dividing line between several inches and a dusting.  Very sharp snow cut-off will set up:


NEXT WEEK: The models continue to show a storm system coming out of Texas and moving towards the Ohio/Tennessee Valley next Tuesday into Wednesday.  Normally, this is a good track for snow in Indiana.  This early in the game, the models will continue to flip-flop with each run.  Right now, the EURO hammers much of Indiana with heavy snow.  Important to note that there is also some concern for some ice, too.  Just for fun, this model shows 12"+ in the area that would see all snow.  Posted below is the EURO 850 mb temperature chart.  You can pick out the center of low pressure moving through the Tennessee Valley.  This track would put all of Indiana in a significant snow.  ***THESE MODELS WILL SHIFT WITH EACH RUN***  THE LAST RUN HAD THE SNOW STAYING SOUTH OF INDIANA LEAVING US DRY.  JUST AN EXAMPLE OF HOW INCONSISTENT THE MODEL DATA IS THIS FAR OUT!



The GFS also has a pretty good track for snow across the state. but it is flatter/weaker with the storm than the EURO, but still gives the state a good hit with plenty of snow.  I posted a couple images of what the model is showing near the beginning and towards the end of the storm.  It shows parts of the area getting ice, and even rain before switching to all snow.  This is just ONE model run.  These models will continue to make changes.


The Canadian model also backs up the EURO with a state-wide heavy snowfall.  (It dumps 20 to 30 inches for central and southern Indiana, hehe)

These forecasts are very subject to change, and significant changes in the forecast are possible at this point.  Don't get too excited or disappointed yet.  We know that anything is possible at this point.  This storm could still shift so far north that it puts the area in rain or so far south that it keeps the snow suppressed south.  I think SOMEONE in the Ohio Valley gets a lot of snow.  Keep checking back in the days ahead for updates.  

Monday, January 27, 2014

WINTER STORM FOR FLORIDA - DANGEROUS COLD FOR US - IMPROVEMENTS LATER THIS WEEK

RARE SOUTHERN WINTER STORM:  Think you can escape to Florida to escape the cold and snow?  Not so fast!  Winter storm WARNINGS out for the entire northwest Florida panhandle!  These winter storm warnings span from the gulf coast of Texas all the way up through the Carolinas.  Significant ice and snow will shut down many southern cities over the next couple of days.  You have to go way south of Orlando to get into any decent warm weather!  



DANGEROUS COLD CONTINUES:  Prolonged stretch of dangerous temperatures for the Hoosier state.  For tonight area thermometers reach the negative double digits in spots, with wind chills near -25.  Tomorrow highs will range from near 0 in snow packed northern Indiana to as warm as 14 (above zero) in southwest Indiana.  At least there will be some sunshine. :) Below zero again tomorrow night.  Still cold for Wednesday, but not as brutal.  

WARM UP BRINGS BACK SNOW CHANCES: As we begin to warm up closer to normal Thursday through the weekend, the jet stream will become zonal (west to east) and set up right over us with rounds of moisture aimed to move across the state.  We will have cold, arctic air to our north, and much warmer air to the south.  Indiana sits right in the middle.  Right now, it appears the best chance for moisture will be between Friday and Saturday night.  Right now, the models are in a bit of disagreement on the set-up of the jet stream, which will impact the forecast.  Right now the set-up favors the better snow chances to set-up across central and northern Indiana.  Be sure to check back for updates on this forecast, as the shady details become a bit clearer.  

The models are already showing a strong storm around the middle of next week which could be a whopper.  STAY TUNED!


SIDE NOTE:  If you notice a big decrease in the amount of weather updates on Facebook and the blog over the next several weeks, college is keeping me busy so I will not be updating as often.  Stay warm everyone!

Thursday, January 23, 2014

MORE SNOW AND ARCTIC ATTACKS

Good evening.  I am tracking more snow on the way to the Hoosier state tomorrow night into Saturday, and another major blast of frigid air straight out of the North Pole for early next week.  Could rival the coldest of the winter so far!  In the meantime, another brutal night with below zero temps yet again.  

Tomorrow will be another frigid day, but not as cold as today.  Highs should reach the upper teens to lower 20's.  Warning though, the winds will really crank up with gusts up to 35 mph.  Wind chills through the day will be brutal, so it will probably not feel any warmer. 

The weather quickly goes downhill later tomorrow night.  An Alberta clipper will race down into the state, and bring a widespread swath of snow.  Timing on this appears to be after midnight through about mid-morning Saturday.  Winds could gust over 35 mph at times and will produce white-out conditions.  Bottom line, travel will be hazardous!  Posted below is the NAM for early Saturday morning.  You can see widespread precipitation moving through the state.  

So now you ask, how much snow?  In general, a 1-3" swath looks likely for a lot of areas.  Similar to the last several clippers, there will once again be a sharp cut-off in far southwest portions of Indiana.  Isolated locations in central and northern Indiana could get up to 4".  Posted below is my snowfall map:


Another clipper expected to affect parts of the state on Sunday.  The set-up will create a huge temperature gradient from north to south.  There could literally be almost a 30 degree temperature difference, from low 20's in Angola (northeast Indiana) to upper 40's in Evansville (southwest Indiana).  So at least most of us along and south of I-70 could see a brief period of milder air.  Right now, it appears 2-4" of snow could north of Indianapolis during the day Sunday, with a sharp cut-off south of I-70.  I will fine tune that forecast once tomorrow night's system is out of the picture.  

A MAJOR arctic blast arrives for next week.  This could be the coldest of the winter!  Remember the -15 back on January 7th in Indy?  I think it could get a touch colder than that with this next blast.  Very harsh winter pattern just keeps rolling.  Thanks for reading.  Stay warm!!

Snow Burst - Dangerous Cold - More Snow Coming

Very impressive snow burst plowing through the state tonight.  This band has dropped a quick dusting to 1".  This is along an arctic front plowing through the region.  Not your everyday type of event, very neat to look at the dynamics that set up to produce this.  Wind gusts have been reported as high as 50 mph along the line.  Nearly impossible driving conditions if you were out as this burst hit.

Now it's all about the brutal dangerous cold.  The entire state has a wind chill advisory for later tonight and tomorrow.  Wind chills could be anywhere from -10 to -25 over the next 24 hours with actual air temperatures falling at or below 0 tonight, and not rising above the single digits tomorrow afternoon.  Heading out the door for work or school will be torture, as if today wasn't cold enough!


Our next weather maker arrives Friday night and Saturday.  This system is looking more impressive and could dump a few inches across most of the state.  Early indications are for a 2-4".  Another big player with this system will be the WIND!  I am telling you, wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph are possible, and I would not rule out blizzard criteria.  Remember you do not have to have a lot of snow to have a blizzard, but winds sustained 35+mph for at a minimum of 3 hours and visibility 1/4 mile or less for at least 3 hours.  That could be a close call come Saturday morning! (Attached to the left is the GFS model for 7am Saturday).

Another clipper arrives Sunday.  Parts of the state could get several more inches all depending on where it tracks.  As of now areas north of I-70 appear to be in the favored spot. (Attached to the right is the GFS model for 1pm Sunday).  




Another major arctic blast comes early next week - EVEN COLDER than the one we are experiencing now.  It is possible that we get as cold as the blast that hit Jan 6-7, when highs didn't make it above zero.  


Sorry for all the bad news with the weather.  I know some of you actually love the snow and bitter cold, but I think at this point most of us have had it!  I personally love snow, but the bitter cold below zero stuff I cannot stand.  I want to mention one thing - I do see signs of our pattern trying to warm a bit during the first week of February.  Doesn't mean it will happen but the teleconnections look a little better for perhaps a bit of a warm up - perhaps a more zonal flow with less extremes across the country.  Let's keep hoping at least!  Thanks for reading.  

Sunday, January 19, 2014

More of The Same

Good evening.  Yesterday's clipper system produced several inches of snow along and north of Indy.  South of there, it was a wimpy system.  In fact, much of southern Indiana ended up with hardly anything as far as accumulations.  Here is a look at the accumulations across the state.


The snowfall stats are just incredible for Indianapolis.  As of today (Jan 19) this is the 3rd snowiest January, and with more snow on the way, that may be pushed up to 2nd snowiest January by Tuesday.  Maybe this will turn out to be the snowiest January ever for Indy!  I think that is a possibility.  For more snow stats check out the link here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=99759&source=0

The arctic air is taking a very, very short break before returning to the Ohio Valley tomorrow night.  In fact, temperatures tonight will be very mild.  Temperatures should hold in the lower 30's overnight, with a breezy southwest wind.  

Monday will feature increasing clouds as an arctic front approaches.  Highs across most of central and southern Indiana should be in the 30's.  A spot or two near the Ohio River could reach 40.  Temperatures in northern Indiana will be considerably colder since the front arrives there first.  Expect temperatures to fall sharply tomorrow evening and snow showers to develop across the state, mainly after midnight.  Expect widespread snow showers to continue through Tuesday.  Here is a look at the GFS during the Monday night-Tuesday time-frame.  You can see the widespread snow showers along with a decent piece of energy digging along the trough.  



I think this is set-up will bring 1-2" of dry, fluffy snow to a lot of places.  Areas near Lake Michigan will get significant accumulations, as the lake-effect will really kick up with those gusty north winds.  This will be bad timing for the Tuesday morning rush hour.  

For Tuesday through Thursday, bitter cold sets in.  Highs these days
will stay in the teens in many spots, and overnight lows could dip below zero for a couple nights, mainly for the areas with the deeper snow pack.  You will notice on these mornings that temperatures will be noticeably colder in northern Indiana with the presence of a deep snow pack.  

I will have more updates on my Facebook page through the week.  Thanks for checking the blog, take care.  

Saturday, January 18, 2014

MORE SNOW ON THE WAY

Good morning!  No changes needed to the snowfall map I posted yesterday.  Snow is already approaching western Indiana, and will RAPIDLY build across a majority of central/northern Indiana between noon and 2pm, and the snow will fall steady through about 8/9pm.  For southern Indiana, the snow will come in more waves through the evening instead of the steady snow that central Indiana will be seeing.  With the cold surface temperatures, everything will stick and roads will become hazardous once the snow begins.  Here is a more specific look at accumulations:

-VINCENNES TO PAOLI AND POINTS SOUTHWEST: 1" or less.

-SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON/BEDFORD/SALEM/SCOTTSBURG: 1-2"

-TERRE HAUTE/ELLETSVILLE/NASVILLE/NORTH VERNON AND POINTS NORTHWARD: 2-5"


Friday, January 10, 2014

Sunday's Winter Storm Recap - January Thaw

Happy Friday everyone!  What a week it has been in the Hoosier state.  From a massive snowstorm Sunday, to the coldest air in nearly 20 years.  I don't know about you, but I am very ready for warmer temps for a little while.  After being snowed-in at home all week, it will be nice to get out again and see road conditions getting back to normal. 

I wanted to post a few pictures I took during the height of the snow on Sunday in Morgan county.  I have no doubt this was the most picturesque snow I have ever witnessed.  This was a very heavy, wet snow that stuck on everything!  When I was taking these pictures, you could hear tree limbs cracking and breaking.  This also caused a lot of power outages.  









The final snow total at my house was about 10".  Indy officially picked up 11.4", with 12"+ west and north of Indy.  There was a SHARP cut-off to my south.  I was literally right on the line between a wintry mix and all snow, but the precipitation only fell as snow.  Check out the final snow totals from this storm across Indiana.  You can see how those snow totals drastically cut-off south and east of Indianapolis.  In fact, southern Indiana just did not get much snow.  That is how these systems work, and why forecasting them is so tricky.  Small shifts in the track can make a drastic change in the forecast for any location.  



Let's take a look ahead now.  We have gotten out of the arctic blast, and now it is much warmer.  Temperatures across the state are actually above freezing.  We have some light drizzle, but more organized rain will arrive this evening and tonight.  Here is a look at potential rain totals over the next 24 hours per the WPC:



.5-.75" of rain combined with the gradually melting snow pack will create flooding issues.  Be careful on the roadways tonight.  Water will simply have no where to really drain.  

That rain gets out of here by mid-morning tomorrow, and then the rest of the weekend basically looks dry.  As the system exits, temps will fall in the upper 30's as winds become gusty.  There could be a few flurries around as well.  Sunday LOOKS GREAT!!  Expect sunshine with highs warming in the 40's!  That snow will continue to melt.    

Next week looks to feature a lot of ups and downs.  The week will start mild for Monday, with another day in the 40's.  It will cool down Tuesday and Wednesday, briefly warm for Thursday, then perhaps a very cold air mass coming in for next Friday.  (Still nothing as cold as what we saw earlier this week).  

Thanks for reading the blog!  Have a great rest of your day.  
 

Friday, January 3, 2014

MAJOR SNOWSTORM - THEN COLDEST IN DECADES

A winter storm watch has been issued for most of Indiana, with a winter weather advisory for northwest counties near Chicago.  Check out all the winter storm watches across the Ohio Valley!


Before I get to the snowfall totals I want to stress that the biggest headline continues to be the dangerous cold we are about to experience.  Yes a lot of snow is coming but we need to be prepared for the kind of temperatures headed our way.  This is basically once in a lifetime kind of cold we are about to witness.  Temps as the snow exits Sunday night dip well below zero, with wind chills of -20 to -40.  I don't think a lot of us realize how dangerous a -40 wind chill is.  The coldest night appears to be Monday night when temps dip to -10 to -25.  That is the actual air temp!  This type of cold can do serious damage.  It will be dangerous to be outside at all.  Temperatures will stay well below zero until late Tuesday or early Wednesday.  That is over 48 hours of below zero air temperatures.  Let that sink in for a minute...

Here is my first call on the snowfall coming in Sunday.  It does not matter where you are located in Indiana, your going to get snow.  Expect the snow to break out shortly after 1am Sunday, then really start picking up near daybreak.  The snow will become heavy through the day on Sunday, with the heaviest snow occurring between 9am and 3pm.  Snow rates could exceed 1" an hour at times.  Do not travel unless emergency.  As winds pick up, expect a ton of blowing and drifting with downright dangerous wind chills.  Temps will plummet through the 20's during the day, then eventually the teens, single digits, and finally all the way in the negative teens by Monday morning, with those wind chills approaching -30.  I will continue to post updates on my Facebook weather page.  If you haven't yet, give it a "LIKE" to stay posted.  Just go to the "Find me on Facebook" tab at the top of the blog.  



Thursday, January 2, 2014

Potential Major Winter Storm - MAJOR EXTREME COLD NEXT WEEK

Good afternoon.  We are still dealing with widespread snow showers this afternoon, and it is very cold, the wind makes it feel like zero at times!  Much of central and northern Indiana ended up with 3-6" of snow.  Note that there was a sharp cut-off to the south, with almost no snow at all south of Bedford.  This is due to the warmer air holding on longer than expected last night, really limiting accumulations.  Here is a look at how much snow has fallen in the past 24 hours:


It gets very brutally cold tonight, but NOTHING when compared to what comes in a few days.  Lows tonight will range from 0 to a bit below that north of Indy, to the single digits across southern Indiana.  The good news is that no snow is in the forecast for Friday.  In fact, we should see plenty of sunshine.  However, expect a very cold day with highs on reaching the teens in snow-packed areas, to the 20's in areas with little or no snow on the ground.  Saturday we BRIEFLY warm up well into the 30's.  Word of advice: you better get out and enjoy every bit of it - because it will be a long time before we see temps that warm again!

Sunday, we will have a strong storm system that will develop across an arctic front that will be pushing into the Ohio Valley.  Here is the set-up:


Such a track should bring a significant amount of snow to a good chunk of Indiana.  NOTE: the exact track is not set in stone, and the track will be key to which areas see the heaviest snow.  Right now most models that I will lean on for my forecast place the heaviest snow across the heart of central Indiana.  There is potential for 8-12" for a good part of the area.  Be sure to stay close to the forecast over the next couple of days as the track/amounts become a more certain thing. 

Another thing to note is that it will be very windy as the storm moves through especially by Sunday night.  This could create blizzard conditions.  Those winds will usher in barbaric cold.  Temps PLUMMET to below zero Sunday night with wind chills approaching 20 below.  That isn't even the worst yet!  

My mind is BOGGLED just at the thought of how cold all the models are showing next Monday and Tuesday.  MANY AREAS WILL STAY BELOW ZERO FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS!!!  Lows Monday and Tuesday night could approach -15 to -25.  Wind chills 30 to 40 below zero.  Highs will likely stay at or below zero.  I have never, ever experienced temperatures this cold, and this is the coldest period of weather that Indiana will have seen since 1994.  Some areas could actually hit or break ALL-TIME COLDEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED!! 

I will continue to update the blog and Facebook as the storm and major cold snap approaches.  Thanks for reading, have a great evening!

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Serious Winter Weather On The Way

Happy New Year's everyone!  The first week of the year is going to be pretty intense with two rounds of accumulating snow, and then the coldest air in YEARS.  Folks this has potential to approach all time coldest temperatures EVER recorded in Indiana, this is no joke.  It's almost scary to see the models in so much agreement! 

First things first, we have to get through the snow heading in tonight and tomorrow.  A winter weather advisory goes into effect at 7pm and remains until 7pm Thursday.  There has already been a few inches laid down in northern Indiana, and eventually everybody will have snow later tonight into tomorrow.  The "MAIN" time frame for the snow appears to fall from 3am through about 10am Thursday.  Moderate to heavy bursts are possible.  Even as the snow exits tomorrow afternoon, temps fall into the teens and very gusty winds up to 30 mph will create lots of blowing and drifting, so travel will be tricky for tomorrow, even if you don't end up with much snow.  Here is the total snow accumulation expected by noon tomorrow...


Bitter cold will be with us through Friday.  Expect sub-zero wind chills at times.  The good news is that sunshine will return during the day Friday!

Saturday *actually* looks rather nice!  We will warm up quite nicely for a brief time with strong warm air advection pushing many area thermometers above freezing.  

Sunday is the day to watch.  The models are coming into better agreement now on a storm for Sunday.  All of Indiana has the chance for accumulating snow to end the weekend, and perhaps blizzard conditions.  Even though a storm is showing up on all the models, the questions remain on the strength and track.  That is key! :) If the stronger/more amplified solutions verify, this puts the surface low pressure near southern Indiana.  Remember the heavy snow axis usually sets up about 150 miles north of the low track.  If those solutions verify, the main snow axis would be across central and northern Indiana, with more rain and less snow for southern Indiana.  If the weaker solutions verify, this means the surface low pressure center would be farther south into Kentucky, which would put the entire state in the risk of accumulating snow, although it would not be as much snow.  So bottom line, still way to early to much more specific, just keep in mind accumulating snow and blizzard conditions are possible Sunday and keep checking back for the latest!

It is behind that storm that the arctic winds roar in the coldest stuff
in many years.  Highs next Monday and Tuesday will range from below zero to the single digits, with lows of -10 to -25 POSSIBLE by Tuesday morning!  We have already braved harsh temperatures this winter but nothing compared to what is coming.  Be prepared!!!  Temperatures this cold cause tons of issues!!  The good news is that it will be rather brief, as highs should return to the teens by Wednesday, and crack freezing by next Friday.  Folks I am trying to find some positive news! :) It will be very tough early next week, but hang in there! 

Keep it tuned to the blog and Facebook for updates on all the wild weather coming our way.