Temperatures tonight will not be as cold despite clear skies. We have a warmer air mass advecting into the area on a light south/southwest flow. Expect lows Sunday morning to be a good 10-13 degrees warmer than what we had to deal with this morning. Sunday looks spectacular! Expect plenty of sunshine with highs reaching the low to mid 60s. NOTE: Last year during this same time we were dealing with early season snow...southern Indiana saw 3-5" of snow during the 16-17 of November 2014.
We have some mild and wet weather on the way for this upcoming week. There will be a storm system across the Plains that will lift north and bring the potential for a good deal of rain around here. Check out the strong southerly flow setting across our area during this time....
It appears scattered showers will begin to break out across the area on Monday, with chances increasing as we head deeper through the day. Rain looks likely for Tuesday, with a break possible late in the day and evening hours before the rain really picks up late Tuesday night into Wednesday. It appears that the rains will begin to pull east of here late in the day Wednesday with drying conditions Wednesday night.
How much rain could fall during this time-frame? Anywhere from 1-3", with the higher totals the farther west you go. Even heavier totals of 3-5" possible west and south of Indiana.
Once we get beyond this system, I do believe we will see a pattern that gradually takes on a more wintry look. Thanksgiving week has had my attention for the past couple weeks as blocking develops over the eastern Pacific. I think we slip into a colder than normal period that may feature our first flakes of the season at least, but can we get something more than that? Cannot rule that out. Initially behind our system this week we will have seasonable cool air. It appears we will have another system coming in around next weekend, and behind that is when make our way towards a potentially colder than normal period of weather. Here is a look at the GFS ensembles 5-day average temperature anomalies from the 24 to the 29th.....
That shows much of the country dealing with colder than average temperatures for Thanksgiving week. Now here is what the Canadian model ensembles are showing during this same time-frame...
We will see how this all plays out. Nothing set in stone by any means, but it appears rather likely that we are going to slip into a period of colder than average temperatures during the Thanksgiving holiday time-frame. This has been my thinking for quite some time.
Thanks for reading. Have a fantastic rest of the weekend!
