Tracking Another Winter Storm Tonight!

Good afternoon! Tracking another winter storm to hit the area tonight. The areas in purple are under winter weather advisories, where several inches of new snow is likely..

Check out the storm system approaching from the south..

A snow/rain mix looks to arrive across southern Indiana around, or just after sunset. (5-6pm). That snow will advance northward to much of central Indiana by mid/late evening. 

-Moderate to even heavy snow will fall much of the night, especially areas southeast of Indy. It appears the areas hardest hit from the last storm will get hit once again.  Check out the snowfall potential for tonight.

Snow showers will continue off and on for Saturday, with an additional coating possible. If you have travel plans tonight or tomorrow, be prepared for snow-covered roads and very slick travel. The good news out of this is that the winds will be calm through this system, so this will be a rather peaceful snow falling overnight, but will continue to add onto what we already have out there.

I will have updates through the evening as needed on my Facebook weather page. If you haven't yet, please go and "like" it!  

https://www.facebook.com/Nathanlovesweather4

Blizzard Recap - More Snow On The Way For Some

Good afternoon. Our blizzard is behind us now, but wow, it was incredible. Some areas saw thunder, lightning, and snow all at the same time. (Known as thunder-snow) The snowfall rates were just amazing with areas getting 2-3" per hour yesterday morning. Most of the snow fell in a 7-8 hour period, and check out the snowfall totals across the state from this storm..

Some areas had more snow with this storm alone than the total for all last winter. For more details on the incredible blizzard, check out this detailed recap from the NWS... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=dec262012snow

MORE SNOW ON THE WAY? A southern storm system is expected to bring some moisture to state tomorrow night into early Saturday. Models are trending farther north with this system, along with more moisture, but NOT ANYTHING like the major storm we just had. Here is my first guess on potential snow totals, I will update this tomorrow.

Most of the models are in agreement now on the system, but how far north, how much moisture, and if rain could mix with the snow south are questions that will be answered tomorrow. 

Thanks for reading, have a great night!

NAM SAYS BAM! -MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY

Eye candy anyone?? The latest NAM model run has shifted the snow band southeast a good 75 miles, and you can see what a difference this shift is making on the snowfall potential. Check out how much snow this model puts down for area..

The updated GFS is coming in and looks very similar. Things are getting VERY interesting. Everyone in Indiana will get snow out of this, and I will have a snowfall potential map out later today. Wouldn't be surprised if the central part of Indiana got upgraded to a blizzard warning. 

The timing of the snow looks to arrive during the overnight Christmas night through Wednesday. For more updates on this storm like my Facebook weather page..http://www.facebook.com/Nathanlovesweather4?fref=ts

From Spring-Like To Wintry Later This Week!

It has been yet another unusual December day across the Ohio Valley. Parts of southeast Indiana and much of Kentucky had strong storms with hail this afternoon. In fact, some areas had so much hail it covered the ground. We're supposed to have snow on the ground in December, not HAIL! What a weird December its been!


In the short term, we have scattered showers still working their way across the state. Those should come to an end overnight. The next couple days look great weather-wise. Partly sunny skies and highs very mild, upper 40's tomorrow with 50's Wednesday. The average high is in the 30's.

Enjoy those days, because MAJOR changes work in by Wednesday night. A dynamic and powerful storm is going to develop across the southern Plains and track northeast, with storms and warm temps on one side, and a major snowstorm on the other.


For us, rain will be the much bigger story than snow. Rain and thunder should move in Wednesday night, with temperatures warming up to the lower 50's by Thursday morning. A WILD temperature swing will occur during the day, going from 50's late morning, to near freezing by the evening rush! Rain showers will quickly transition to snow showers by the afternoon, and howling winds will create bitter wind chills. Some slick spots would be possible for the evening commute Thursday, so keep that it mind. You can see the transition to wraparound snow showers on the GFS for Thursday afternoon and evening...

Accumulations however look very light locally. This will be one of those set-ups where, by time the cold air reaches the precipitation, the heaviest precipitation will have already moved through. I think we could see a coating to half inch in central Indiana, with perhaps 1-2" of snow for much of northern Indiana. Southern Indiana should not see any accumulation out of this. Check out the HEAVY snow band to our northwest with this storm, with 6"+ for many from Iowa to southern Wisconsin, and Michigan. Only if this could shift about 300 miles, then it would be game on for us.

Behind the storm, a colder weather pattern takes hold for the weekend into Christmas. Highs mainly in the 30's are expected during this time-frame. The models are already showing the potential for another powerful storm system on the 26th. Way to early to tell where it will track. I think it will most likely be another rain to snow shower set-up. The end of the month will likely be very interesting, and December looks to end on a much colder note. Stay tuned.

Warm Weekend - Wintry Change Likely Late Next Week!

So far we are on our way to the 3rd warmest December's ever in Indy, but, a MAJOR pattern change late next week could change that. Our pattern is finally looking better for cold and snow lovers, likely right in time for Christmas. Several systems to track from now until then, so let's get to the fun.

Some Rain Saturday, Warm & Dry Sunday: A storm system currently to our southwest will lift to the northeast and track north of us, bringing rain and balmy temperatures for the weekend. Since the storms' center will be well north of us, the best chances of widespread rains tomorrow will be across northern Indiana, but everyone has a decent shot of getting a little wet. Temps will be mild despite the showers, in the 50's. The forecast has really changed for Sunday! It appears a drier air mass will move in and end all rain chances. It will be VERY warm and breezy, highs near 60 degrees. Bottom line, Sunday will be a good day to be outside. 

Temps Up & Down Next Week, Flurries Tuesday, Arctic Air To End The Week? A cold front sweeps in behind the weekend system Sunday night, with cooler air moving in for the beginning of next week, but still staying slightly above average. The next system to watch will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. This disturbance is NOT expected to be a big deal at all. It looks like a few showers are possible Monday evening, then any precipitation leftover could change to flurries for Tuesday morning. The NAM does hint at a few flurries Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be chilly, with highs only around 40.

We will begin to see temperatures warm up Wednesday and Thursday, ahead of a strong storm system that is expected to draw ARCTIC AIR behind it, (easily the coldest of the season) by next Friday. Check out this image from the European model during this time, showing a powerhouse system over the area.

Look at that COLD air that is expected to invade the central, southern, and eastern U.S. by next weekend! Several days of highs in the 20's and snow showers would be possible with this set-up. That cold air mass should hold into Christmas Day as well. So will it be a white Christmas? That remains to be seen. At least we know that it's going to be cold, so anything that falls from the sky would be snow. More on this over the next several days. 

Pattern Finally Looking More Wintry!

Good evening. Hard to believe it is already mid-December, and 12 days away from Christmas! The weather has been absolutely fantastic the past several days for those hitting up the local malls, and quite mild for December standards. I think the weather so far this month has caused a lot of people to forget just how close Christmas is, as it has seemed to be unusually sunny and much above normal temperatures, even warmer than last December so far. It is very unusual to go this long in December without sustained cold or even snow for that matter. In fact, we haven't had a single flake this month. This blog should offer up smiles for those cold and snow-lovers, as our pattern FINALLY looks wintry, just in time for Christmas.

The next system of note moves in for the weekend. This storm will bring rain and mild temps. The rain should begin to break out Saturday around noon, and rain will be likely through the evening. The dry slot moves in Saturday night, with temperatures VERY MILD Saturday night, holding steady near 50 degrees! Rain will be more scattered in nature Sunday. WAY too warm for snow with this storm.

The next system is finally becoming more clear on the models. The models have all trended toward the weak storm scenario. It looks like light precipitation will move through Monday evening through Tuesday. The GFS indicates the precip will fall as a light wintry mix...

At this time it just looks too warm, and the precip looks too light to worry about any accumulations with this one. Still, it will be nice to see a few flakes fly. :)

It appears another system may impact the area by next Thursday, ahead of a big-time cold snap. Check out all the COLD AIR pouring into the central U.S. during this time next week..

All indications from the major computer models show much colder weather moving in for the end of next week, right into Christmas. Check out what the European model is showing for the weekend right before Christmas...

That is some intense cold! Now as far as precipitation, it's WAY too early to pinpoint that. If I were to take a stab at it right now, it mainly looks cold and dry during this period, but things can sure change this far out. I'm not giving up the hope of a white Christmas. At least it looks like we'll have the cold air in place. :) 

Thanks for stopping by my blog. It is very appreciated. Have a great night.

ACCUMULATING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERN INDIANA

The lake-effect snow machine is kicking in across northern Indiana tonight. It looks like many spots have received a coating of snow, and areas near the lake under the heavy snow band coming in could pick up several inches by morning. For the latest look at radar, check out the radars tab at the top. Here is the latest from the NWS in northern Indiana:

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS BY LATE TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BERRIEN COUNTY.
THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN
SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER 4 AM
EST. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITIES OVER SHORT DISTANCES DUE TO THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK TONIGHT DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF WETTED ROADWAYS REFREEZING.

The Pattern Is Looking More Wintry

Sorry I haven't posted in FOREVER. I've been busy studying for the ACT test, but now I am done for a while, so I will try to have a post at least 3 times per week. If our pattern really starts to look interesting for snow, I will have more frequent posts.

I highlighted the period of December 8-15 about two weeks ago for a major pattern change towards winter across the country. I am glad to say that has come to fruition, although many deny the pattern change we are dealing with. LOOK AROUND, the snow-cover across the country has increased rapidly. Last week at this time the snow cover across the country was at 14.4%. With the major winter storm that produced near record snow totals for December in the upper mid-west has increased the U.S. snow cover to 31.9%!!! Also, notice how DEEP the snow pack is up there in southern Canada. 

This is actually a major factor when it comes to our weather pattern. As cold air masses come down from Canada, snow-cover across the Plains helps these cold air masses from warming up as much as the head south. When there is a lack of snow cover to our north, it is harder for an Arctic air mass to make it this far south.

Here is a snow cover map from the same time last year. Notice it is more blotchy in nature, and not as deep in southern Canada. And last year, the snow cover never increased throughout the winter. That in turn, caused the air masses to moderate as the moved south, probably why we never had a "true arctic intrusion" last winter.

Storm systems love to track just south of the snow cover areas, and it looks like the system this weekend will do just that. 

The system for the weekend looks to track right across central/northern Indiana, but the air will be way too warm for any snow at this point, likely a rain event with this one. Maybe a flurry as the system exits, but that would be it as far as snow is concerned.

The weather pattern as we head toward late month looks VERY active! Will a storm system be able to bring us some SNOW, or more rain? Too early to tell, but if the snow cover to our north increases a bit more, (like I am expecting) then that should allow the storm track across the area to shift farther south, hopefully bringing us snow. Stay tuned snow-lovers. :)

EXTREMELY WARM START TO DECEMBER!

What a way to start the first day of December! Temperatures as of noon are already at or above 60 degrees. Dry weather can be expected for the afternoon, and temperatures will continue to warm a few more degrees, with just about everyone in the 60's for highs.

A disturbance will move in tonight/early Sunday, with some scattered showers. Most areas should see mostly dry conditions by tomorrow afternoon, so most outdoor plans are in decent shape. Highs will hit the 60's again.

And there's your weekend forecast! I have to get off because I am going dirt-biking and hiking this afternoon! Get outside and enjoy this weather.