Friday, January 6, 2012
EXTENDED FORECAST
Good evening! Hope you enjoyed today's amazing weather! 58 in Indy... 60+ south! 22 degrees above average! A cold front is moving in now, and will usher in "cooler " air, but not cold air! Highs this weekend will be in the 40's. Those 40's continue through Wednesday, with the next storm system moving in as rain. Snow showers will take over Thursday, along with the arctic plunge! 20's are looking likely for highs by next Friday. Lows will dip down in the teens. Here is your extended forecast:
NEARING 60 DEGREES NOW!!
Good afternoon! Hope you're enjoying today's weather! Just two away from 60 degrees right now! Highs should easily hit the low 60's today. Take advantage of it.
If you're heading out this evening, it will stay in the 50's through 10pm, then fall off in the 40's by midnight, and 30's by morning, as a cold front arrives on the scene. It will be much cooler through the weekend, but still pretty darn mild for January, in the 40-45 degree range for highs. A few showers may fall south of the Ohio River, mainly on Sunday.
Lots of changes still on the plate for next week! I will go into all that later tonight in a seperate blog post. Enjoy this great weather while it lasts.
60 DEGREES IN JANUARY!!??
Good morning!!! TGIF! Boy, what a week! From a snowy Monday, to spring-like 50's yesterday and today. I took my Christmas lights down yesterday, and it felt great out there! If you thought yesterday was nice, just wait until you hear today's forecast!To put it into even better perspective, the temperatures this morning are 5 degrees warmer than the average HIGH! Today's record is 63 degrees the predicted high is 60! Take advantage of this! A great day for any outdoor plans!
A cold front moves in tomorrow, ushering cooler air for the weekend! Highs this weekend will be in the 40-45 degree range, which is still very mild for January! :)
I am still watching Sunday night/Monday, for very light rain or freezing rain, mainly in southern Indiana. However, temps will be on the border of rain or freezing rain. Not a big deal, but something to watch sneak up on us for the Monday morning rush. Still expecting major changes by the middle/end of next week! I updated the blog with detailed model analysis last night. Check the post below for all of that info! In the meantime, enjoy today's spring fever!!
Thursday, January 5, 2012
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK'S STORM AND COLD CHANCES
Since there is nothing exciting in the short term (other than mild temps) this leads us to next Wednesday, when big changes are lurking!
Model trends today: The models pull the system northeast Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the cold air still far from us. So it is looking more like a rain event for us! However, there is 1 model that dumps the snow on us Wednesday night and Thursday. Here is your model round-up:
Euro: Is moving the storm system through well before the cold air catches up with the storm Wednesday night. All rain event. I drew the white line to represent where the cold air is, and the arrow to show where the storm was moving.
GFS: Agrees with the EURO. Rain event, mainly south of I-70 Wednesday. Cold air moves in after the precipitation is gone.
Canadian: Again, this is the 1 model that still has hope for snow! It shows the north & south systems "phasing" just east of us, with heavy snow. Again, I think this is an outlier solution right now.
Even if this does turn out as an all rain event, snow showers would be a likely bet for next Thursday, with arctic air spilling into the state. Some models show a disturbance next Thursday, that may help our snow chances:
If that were the case, we could see a light snow event. Again, I am not expecting any major snowstorms next week. The bigger story will be some downright cold air! Check out the GFS for next Friday:
Is this a "locked-in" cold pattern? I think the short answer is no, but I think we get much more frequent arctic air blasts, and short periods of milder weather in between. I think we get several accumulating snow systems later this month, as the pattern will begin to be in favor for snow. Overall, I think this certainly pattern that will be much more typical for winter. Word to all you snow-lovers out there: Things are looking more and more favorable for frequent shots of cold air and snow for the second half of January!
BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!
Model trends today: The models pull the system northeast Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the cold air still far from us. So it is looking more like a rain event for us! However, there is 1 model that dumps the snow on us Wednesday night and Thursday. Here is your model round-up:
Euro: Is moving the storm system through well before the cold air catches up with the storm Wednesday night. All rain event. I drew the white line to represent where the cold air is, and the arrow to show where the storm was moving.
GFS: Agrees with the EURO. Rain event, mainly south of I-70 Wednesday. Cold air moves in after the precipitation is gone.
Canadian: Again, this is the 1 model that still has hope for snow! It shows the north & south systems "phasing" just east of us, with heavy snow. Again, I think this is an outlier solution right now.
Even if this does turn out as an all rain event, snow showers would be a likely bet for next Thursday, with arctic air spilling into the state. Some models show a disturbance next Thursday, that may help our snow chances:
If that were the case, we could see a light snow event. Again, I am not expecting any major snowstorms next week. The bigger story will be some downright cold air! Check out the GFS for next Friday:
Is this a "locked-in" cold pattern? I think the short answer is no, but I think we get much more frequent arctic air blasts, and short periods of milder weather in between. I think we get several accumulating snow systems later this month, as the pattern will begin to be in favor for snow. Overall, I think this certainly pattern that will be much more typical for winter. Word to all you snow-lovers out there: Things are looking more and more favorable for frequent shots of cold air and snow for the second half of January!
BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!
HOW ABOUT 50'S IN JANUARY!?
Warming up today! It may be chilly this morning, but our warm-up will continue big-time today. It's amazing that just two days ago, our highs were in the 20's, and today's highs will flirt with the 50 degree mark! That's the power of a nice south wind even in the middle of winter.I think the tv mets are going too cool on high temps tomorrow, as I think Indy gets to 53-55 degrees tomorrow afternoon, with gusty winds from the SW. I think Evansville gets to 60 tomorrow, with sunshine around! Enjoy...enjoy....enjoy!!!
The nice stretch of weather will just keep on keeping on through the middle of next week, with temps in the 40's. It is beyond Wednesday when we could see a major pattern change! A storm my bring rain by Wednesday, changing to snow showers and highs in the 20's Thursday and beyond! You can't just look at the models to tell a long-term pattern change, signals such as the NAO/PNA/AO are lining up to signal a longer term arctic air mass for the middle of the month. I know we have talked about potential pattern changers for months now, but keep in mind, this is the first time since September that the NAO looks to go negative, meaning warming over the poles/ dropping all the arctic air down right the the U.S. It is looking quite interesting, so stay tuned to the blog as we get closer!
I will do a video update later today, so don't forget to check back! Have a great day everyone!
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
QUIET PATTERN NOW - INTERESTING NEXT WEEK?
The blog is back!!!! :) I have done a temporary blog called Indiana Weather Center, as this one was having some issues. Everything appears to be working normal again, so I will update this blog now!
The weather over the next few days is simple. Sunny, warm up to 50's on Friday. Cooler and cloudier by the weekend, with a few systems to our north and south, but Indiana will be dry, with a cooler air mass moving in. 38-45 degrees areawide.
This now leads us to next week. It appears another warm-up to begin the week, but a major trough moving in around the 11th-12th. As the trough begins to develop in the Plains, a big storm looks to move in (or just southeast of us) on Wednesday. The big million dollar question here... will it phase with the northern stream. That would have a HUGE impact on forecast, as phasing means bigger storm/colder air involved. Right now, I think the storm phases just our east. Here is the timeline on the GFS model:
Wednesday Afternoon:
Storm passes to our south. No phasing.
Wednesday Night:
Storms phase to produce big snowstorm east of us. Light snow locally.
Thursday:
Wrap-around light snow/flurries. Cold air in place!
This will still need to be watched very closely in the coming days! I think has the potential to be a major storm locally, but we may be a hair too far west for all the phasing. One thing for sure, it will get COLD for the end of next week!
BRING ON THE SNOW!
The weather over the next few days is simple. Sunny, warm up to 50's on Friday. Cooler and cloudier by the weekend, with a few systems to our north and south, but Indiana will be dry, with a cooler air mass moving in. 38-45 degrees areawide.
This now leads us to next week. It appears another warm-up to begin the week, but a major trough moving in around the 11th-12th. As the trough begins to develop in the Plains, a big storm looks to move in (or just southeast of us) on Wednesday. The big million dollar question here... will it phase with the northern stream. That would have a HUGE impact on forecast, as phasing means bigger storm/colder air involved. Right now, I think the storm phases just our east. Here is the timeline on the GFS model:
Wednesday Afternoon:
Storm passes to our south. No phasing.
Wednesday Night:
Storms phase to produce big snowstorm east of us. Light snow locally.
Thursday:
Wrap-around light snow/flurries. Cold air in place!
This will still need to be watched very closely in the coming days! I think has the potential to be a major storm locally, but we may be a hair too far west for all the phasing. One thing for sure, it will get COLD for the end of next week!
BRING ON THE SNOW!
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