Tuesday, January 10, 2012

GREAT DAY AHEAD - TRACKING COLD AND SNOW CHANCES SOON!

Good morning! Here is hoping your morning is starting off great! :) We have one more great day on tap! Highs will top the middle 50's, with lots of sunshine! Take advantage of it, as winter is about to make one BIG comeback in the coming days!

1. It all starts with the storm system moving in tomorrow. Rain will be likely, as temps. stay mild near 50 degrees. Rainfall amounts will be .25-.50 range.


2. Once the system moves out, temps will absolutely plummet into the 20's Thursday, with snow showers likely. A lot of factors should come to play to produce widepsread snow squalls Thursday afternoon, as the air will be cold and unstable. The GFS shows a disturbance in the area Thursday afternoon:


Based on latest data, I think a half-inch to 1" of snow is certainly possible for much of the state Thursday. As always, areas of banding will see the higher totals. Areas northwest can pick up a few inches of snow. 


Check back for more updates! Have a wonderful day!



Monday, January 9, 2012

RETURN OF WINTER ON THE WAY!

Good afternoon! :) Thanks for checking out my blog! We have some great weather out there today! Enjoy today and tomorrow, as winter makes a BIG comeback later this week, as the pattern *may* turn more wintry in the coming weeks.

An area of low pressure will bring rain to parts of the state Wednesday. Most of it will be south of I-70.


As the low pressure lifts to the northeast, arctic air will swing in during the day on Thursday. Snow chances aren't looking too good, though. :( Certainly can't rule out flurries/snow showers Thursday afternoon, but really little/no accumulation expected. I'm so sorry snow-lovers!! Here is a look at the GFS Thursday evening:



The bigger story will certainly be the cold air! Check out the GFS for Friday:
GFSx - US - 4Panel - 4day

Highs on Friday will only be in the 20's statewide. The chill will hang on this weekend, as highs stay in the lower-middle 30's.

Long Range Pattern: It's a tough forecast!! Some models keep some colder air in the area next week, as some models show our temps moderating again. It does appear very cold air will move in just to our north next week, but our temps staying near average. As far as snow chances, some models bring a storm to our south late Sunday, but I'm not buying it yet! I do see several shots of precipitation next week, but I'm not too excited about any big snow anytime in our near future. I'm not trying to be a debbie downer, just saying what I think! :) Keep in mind, these long-term patterns can change very quickly, so stay tuned! Here is the CPC temperature outlook for January 16-22:
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

That fits my thoughts of near average temps over the next two weeks, with the cold air setting up in the northern U.S. Precipitation looks to be above average, so we better get some snow!! Something is telling me we're due for the big one, and something tells me February could be an interesting month around here!

Oh, before I go, you have GOT to check out this picture from Valdez, Alaska:


BOTS! Looks like they could share some of their snow with us! Hehe, check back for more updates soon. Have a great evening!

Sunday, January 8, 2012

SUNDAY EVENING WEATHER MODEL UPDATES!

Good evening, friends! As promised, here is your evening update on the big-time arctic air later this week, which should feature some rounds of snowfall.

Once the colder air filters in Wednesday night/Thursday, the models show a nice wrap-around snow event Thursday. Here is a look at the European model Thursday/Friday:

That is one DEEP trough digging in, and will have staying power, for once. :) Highs on Friday/Saturday should be in the 20's, based on what I see in the models. Here is a look at the GFS for the same time-frame:

How about snow? Snow showers will be likely Thursday/Friday, and I think some areas can pick up 1-3" of snow out of this. Here is what the GFS shows for later Thursday:

Here is the JMA model for the Thursday/Friday period:

I also took a peek at the 6z/18z snowfall potential map for Thursday-Saturday:

That map looks very promising, especially for areas north of I-70. By looking at all the models, here is my latest thinking in summary...

I think wrap-around snows build throughout Thursday, and disturbances passing through may enhance the snow potential. More snow showers will continue throughout Friday. I think totals could be in the 1-3" range along and north of I-70, with 1" or so possible in southern Indiana. Northern parts of the state could pick up 2-4" during this time. Overall, not a major snowfall expected, but will certainly cause travel headaches for the end of the week. **This forecast can change, so keep checking back**

Another update some point tomorrow, so don't forget to check back! Have a great night, and remember..... BRING ON THE SNOW!! :) 

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY - SNOW FOR FRIDAY THE 13TH? :)

Good morning! Here we go again...another warm, sunny, January day! Enjoy. :) Highs should hit the middle/upper 40's. I want to make this a quick update on possibly snowy times later this week!..



1. Rain Next Wednesday: A storm system will move into the Hoosier state, as the warm air hangs on. Rain showers can be expected for Wednesday.


2. Snow Showers Thursday: Snow showers/squalls will build in, but not looking like a big deal, 1" or less.


3. Snow Storm Friday? Some of the models are now showing a system bringing significant snow Friday. This is really grabbing my attention, but not very many models are on board yet. IF a system does move in, cold air will certainly be in place for snow! I want to see more models get on board first, and if they do, you will see another update this evening. At any rate, the GFS does show some nice snow shower activity for Thursday:



By the way.. things are looking MUCH colder/snowier for the second half of the month! THINK SNOW!!! Go out and enjoy these mild temperatures today! Check back later today, and God bless!

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Mild Weather Continues - Changes Next Week!

Good evening! What a day across the Hoosier state! Sunny skies, and highs near 15 degrees warmer than average! In fact, the spring daffodils are coming up, and I saw the first robin today, (last year, I didn't see the first robin until late February). What kind of winter is it? A bi-polar spring maybe? :) lol! Unfortunately, the pattern does look to turn much more wintry here by Thursday, and a pattern that should feature more frequent cold air towards the second half of the month. 


Let's take a look at temperatures across the nation. Even temperatures near the Canada border are running way above normal!
8002




Mother Nature has sure been easy on us..so far this winter! Even if the winter gets much harsher soon, at least spring will be here in a little over two months. My worst fear is that the cold pattern hits us hard in February, and lasts into spring. That would be horrible!!


On to our upcoming weather..Sunday will be another mild day, with temperatures back up in the upper 40's. Clouds will be hanging around tomorrow, but it will stay dry. Monday and Tuesday look terrific weather-wise, upper 40's and lower 50's! The changes all begin Wednesday.....


1. A storm system will move in early Wednesday, bringing rain (not snow). Precipitation may end as light flurries Wednesday night.


2. Snow showers/flurries kick in gear for Thursday. 1" or less expected, but roads may turn slick.


3. Highs at the end of next week will likely be around 28-33 degree range, with lows in the teens. The cold should carry us into the weekend. Here is a look at the European model Friday:



B to the RRR!!! 


Interesting note for snow-lovers: Some models keep a cut-off low in the area for Friday-Saturday, with disturbances rotating around it giving is additional chances of getting snow. I think that is an interesting note in the models, and I will keep an eye on it! 


I will keep you updated, so be sure to keep checking back! Be sure to tell all your friends to come check out my site :) Have a great night, God bless! 

ANOTHER SPECTACULAR AFTERNOON!

Good afternoon! It is shaping up to be another great day out there, with sunshine and mild temps. Thanks to a cold front, slightly cooler air will be noted today, but still way above the averages! Highs will range from 50 or so in the south, to 40 near South Bend. Here are the expected high temps:
Indiana Temperature Forecast Maps

Tomorrow will feature more clouds around, with a sprinkle or two possible in southern Indiana counties. It will also be a touch cooler, mainly lower 40's tomorrow. Lots of changes still expected for next week! 1. Rain likely next Wednesday. 2. Much colder/snow shower threat Thursday. 3. Another cut-off low Friday?? Some of the models have developed a new idea with a cut-off low moving in by next Friday, but tracking these things are extremely difficult several days out. I still expect temps to moderate some by next weekend.

Enjoy this great weather while it lasts! Have a great afternoon!