More of The Same

Good evening.  Yesterday's clipper system produced several inches of snow along and north of Indy.  South of there, it was a wimpy system.  In fact, much of southern Indiana ended up with hardly anything as far as accumulations.  Here is a look at the accumulations across the state.

The snowfall stats are just incredible for Indianapolis.  As of today (Jan 19) this is the 3rd snowiest January, and with more snow on the way, that may be pushed up to 2nd snowiest January by Tuesday.  Maybe this will turn out to be the snowiest January ever for Indy!  I think that is a possibility.  For more snow stats check out the link here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=99759&source=0

The arctic air is taking a very, very short break before returning to the Ohio Valley tomorrow night.  In fact, temperatures tonight will be very mild.  Temperatures should hold in the lower 30's overnight, with a breezy southwest wind.  

Monday will feature increasing clouds as an arctic front approaches.  Highs across most of central and southern Indiana should be in the 30's.  A spot or two near the Ohio River could reach 40.  Temperatures in northern Indiana will be considerably colder since the front arrives there first.  Expect temperatures to fall sharply tomorrow evening and snow showers to develop across the state, mainly after midnight.  Expect widespread snow showers to continue through Tuesday.  Here is a look at the GFS during the Monday night-Tuesday time-frame.  You can see the widespread snow showers along with a decent piece of energy digging along the trough.  

I think this is set-up will bring 1-2" of dry, fluffy snow to a lot of places.  Areas near Lake Michigan will get significant accumulations, as the lake-effect will really kick up with those gusty north winds.  This will be bad timing for the Tuesday morning rush hour.  

For Tuesday through Thursday, bitter cold sets in.  Highs these days

will stay in the teens in many spots, and overnight lows could dip below zero for a couple nights, mainly for the areas with the deeper snow pack.  You will notice on these mornings that temperatures will be noticeably colder in northern Indiana with the presence of a deep snow pack.  

I will have more updates on my Facebook page through the week.  Thanks for checking the blog, take care.  

MORE SNOW ON THE WAY

Good morning!  No changes needed to the snowfall map I posted yesterday.  Snow is already approaching western Indiana, and will RAPIDLY build across a majority of central/northern Indiana between noon and 2pm, and the snow will fall steady through about 8/9pm.  For southern Indiana, the snow will come in more waves through the evening instead of the steady snow that central Indiana will be seeing.  With the cold surface temperatures, everything will stick and roads will become hazardous once the snow begins.  Here is a more specific look at accumulations:

-VINCENNES TO PAOLI AND POINTS SOUTHWEST: 1" or less.

-SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON/BEDFORD/SALEM/SCOTTSBURG: 1-2"

-TERRE HAUTE/ELLETSVILLE/NASVILLE/NORTH VERNON AND POINTS NORTHWARD: 2-5"

Sunday's Winter Storm Recap - January Thaw

Happy Friday everyone!  What a week it has been in the Hoosier state.  From a massive snowstorm Sunday, to the coldest air in nearly 20 years.  I don't know about you, but I am very ready for warmer temps for a little while.  After being snowed-in at home all week, it will be nice to get out again and see road conditions getting back to normal. 

I wanted to post a few pictures I took during the height of the snow on Sunday in Morgan county.  I have no doubt this was the most picturesque snow I have ever witnessed.  This was a very heavy, wet snow that stuck on everything!  When I was taking these pictures, you could hear tree limbs cracking and breaking.  This also caused a lot of power outages.  









The final snow total at my house was about 10".  Indy officially picked up 11.4", with 12"+ west and north of Indy.  There was a SHARP cut-off to my south.  I was literally right on the line between a wintry mix and all snow, but the precipitation only fell as snow.  Check out the final snow totals from this storm across Indiana.  You can see how those snow totals drastically cut-off south and east of Indianapolis.  In fact, southern Indiana just did not get much snow.  That is how these systems work, and why forecasting them is so tricky.  Small shifts in the track can make a drastic change in the forecast for any location.  

Let's take a look ahead now.  We have gotten out of the arctic blast, and now it is much warmer.  Temperatures across the state are actually above freezing.  We have some light drizzle, but more organized rain will arrive this evening and tonight.  Here is a look at potential rain totals over the next 24 hours per the WPC:

.5-.75" of rain combined with the gradually melting snow pack will create flooding issues.  Be careful on the roadways tonight.  Water will simply have no where to really drain.  

That rain gets out of here by mid-morning tomorrow, and then the rest of the weekend basically looks dry.  As the system exits, temps will fall in the upper 30's as winds become gusty.  There could be a few flurries around as well.  Sunday LOOKS GREAT!!  Expect sunshine with highs warming in the 40's!  That snow will continue to melt.    

Next week looks to feature a lot of ups and downs.  The week will start mild for Monday, with another day in the 40's.  It will cool down Tuesday and Wednesday, briefly warm for Thursday, then perhaps a very cold air mass coming in for next Friday.  (Still nothing as cold as what we saw earlier this week).  

Thanks for reading the blog!  Have a great rest of your day.  
 

MAJOR SNOWSTORM - THEN COLDEST IN DECADES

A winter storm watch has been issued for most of Indiana, with a winter weather advisory for northwest counties near Chicago.  Check out all the winter storm watches across the Ohio Valley!

Before I get to the snowfall totals I want to stress that the biggest headline continues to be the dangerous cold we are about to experience.  Yes a lot of snow is coming but we need to be prepared for the kind of temperatures headed our way.  This is basically once in a lifetime kind of cold we are about to witness.  Temps as the snow exits Sunday night dip well below zero, with wind chills of -20 to -40.  I don't think a lot of us realize how dangerous a -40 wind chill is.  The coldest night appears to be Monday night when temps dip to -10 to -25.  That is the actual air temp!  This type of cold can do serious damage.  It will be dangerous to be outside at all.  Temperatures will stay well below zero until late Tuesday or early Wednesday.  That is over 48 hours of below zero air temperatures.  Let that sink in for a minute...

Here is my first call on the snowfall coming in Sunday.  It does not matter where you are located in Indiana, your going to get snow.  Expect the snow to break out shortly after 1am Sunday, then really start picking up near daybreak.  The snow will become heavy through the day on Sunday, with the heaviest snow occurring between 9am and 3pm.  Snow rates could exceed 1" an hour at times.  Do not travel unless emergency.  As winds pick up, expect a ton of blowing and drifting with downright dangerous wind chills.  Temps will plummet through the 20's during the day, then eventually the teens, single digits, and finally all the way in the negative teens by Monday morning, with those wind chills approaching -30.  I will continue to post updates on my Facebook weather page.  If you haven't yet, give it a "LIKE" to stay posted.  Just go to the "Find me on Facebook" tab at the top of the blog.  

Potential Major Winter Storm - MAJOR EXTREME COLD NEXT WEEK

Good afternoon.  We are still dealing with widespread snow showers this afternoon, and it is very cold, the wind makes it feel like zero at times!  Much of central and northern Indiana ended up with 3-6" of snow.  Note that there was a sharp cut-off to the south, with almost no snow at all south of Bedford.  This is due to the warmer air holding on longer than expected last night, really limiting accumulations.  Here is a look at how much snow has fallen in the past 24 hours:

It gets very brutally cold tonight, but NOTHING when compared to what comes in a few days.  Lows tonight will range from 0 to a bit below that north of Indy, to the single digits across southern Indiana.  The good news is that no snow is in the forecast for Friday.  In fact, we should see plenty of sunshine.  However, expect a very cold day with highs on reaching the teens in snow-packed areas, to the 20's in areas with little or no snow on the ground.  Saturday we BRIEFLY warm up well into the 30's.  Word of advice: you better get out and enjoy every bit of it - because it will be a long time before we see temps that warm again!

Sunday, we will have a strong storm system that will develop across an arctic front that will be pushing into the Ohio Valley.  Here is the set-up:

Such a track should bring a significant amount of snow to a good chunk of Indiana.  NOTE: the exact track is not set in stone, and the track will be key to which areas see the heaviest snow.  Right now most models that I will lean on for my forecast place the heaviest snow across the heart of central Indiana.  There is potential for 8-12" for a good part of the area.  Be sure to stay close to the forecast over the next couple of days as the track/amounts become a more certain thing. 

Another thing to note is that it will be very windy as the storm moves through especially by Sunday night.  This could create blizzard conditions.  Those winds will usher in barbaric cold.  Temps PLUMMET to below zero Sunday night with wind chills approaching 20 below.  That isn't even the worst yet!  

My mind is BOGGLED just at the thought of how cold all the models are showing next Monday and Tuesday.  MANY AREAS WILL STAY BELOW ZERO FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS!!!  Lows Monday and Tuesday night could approach -15 to -25.  Wind chills 30 to 40 below zero.  Highs will likely stay at or below zero.  I have never, ever experienced temperatures this cold, and this is the coldest period of weather that Indiana will have seen since 1994.  Some areas could actually hit or break ALL-TIME COLDEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED!! 

I will continue to update the blog and Facebook as the storm and major cold snap approaches.  Thanks for reading, have a great evening!

Serious Winter Weather On The Way

Happy New Year's everyone!  The first week of the year is going to be pretty intense with two rounds of accumulating snow, and then the coldest air in YEARS.  Folks this has potential to approach all time coldest temperatures EVER recorded in Indiana, this is no joke.  It's almost scary to see the models in so much agreement! 

First things first, we have to get through the snow heading in tonight and tomorrow.  A winter weather advisory goes into effect at 7pm and remains until 7pm Thursday.  There has already been a few inches laid down in northern Indiana, and eventually everybody will have snow later tonight into tomorrow.  The "MAIN" time frame for the snow appears to fall from 3am through about 10am Thursday.  Moderate to heavy bursts are possible.  Even as the snow exits tomorrow afternoon, temps fall into the teens and very gusty winds up to 30 mph will create lots of blowing and drifting, so travel will be tricky for tomorrow, even if you don't end up with much snow.  Here is the total snow accumulation expected by noon tomorrow...

Bitter cold will be with us through Friday.  Expect sub-zero wind chills at times.  The good news is that sunshine will return during the day Friday!

Saturday *actually* looks rather nice!  We will warm up quite nicely for a brief time with strong warm air advection pushing many area thermometers above freezing.  

Sunday is the day to watch.  The models are coming into better agreement now on a storm for Sunday.  All of Indiana has the chance for accumulating snow to end the weekend, and perhaps blizzard conditions.  Even though a storm is showing up on all the models, the questions remain on the strength and track.  That is key! :) If the stronger/more amplified solutions verify, this puts the surface low pressure near southern Indiana.  Remember the heavy snow axis usually sets up about 150 miles north of the low track.  If those solutions verify, the main snow axis would be across central and northern Indiana, with more rain and less snow for southern Indiana.  If the weaker solutions verify, this means the surface low pressure center would be farther south into Kentucky, which would put the entire state in the risk of accumulating snow, although it would not be as much snow.  So bottom line, still way to early to much more specific, just keep in mind accumulating snow and blizzard conditions are possible Sunday and keep checking back for the latest!

It is behind that storm that the arctic winds roar in the coldest stuff

in many years.  Highs next Monday and Tuesday will range from below zero to the single digits, with lows of -10 to -25 POSSIBLE by Tuesday morning!  We have already braved harsh temperatures this winter but nothing compared to what is coming.  Be prepared!!!  Temperatures this cold cause tons of issues!!  The good news is that it will be rather brief, as highs should return to the teens by Wednesday, and crack freezing by next Friday.  Folks I am trying to find some positive news! :) It will be very tough early next week, but hang in there! 

Keep it tuned to the blog and Facebook for updates on all the wild weather coming our way.