October Goes Out With A Bang

Good morning.  The big storm system that I have talked about for a while is on its way.  This storm will bring heavy rain, wind, and some strong to severe thunderstorms to parts of the area.

The good news is that today is not looking too bad.  Clouds will thicken through the day, but any rain should hold off until this evening, mainly after sunset.  You can track the rain on the "radars" tab at the top of the page.  Temperatures will warm near 60.  

Temperatures will really warm up for tomorrow as the wind flow ahead of the storm system pumps in warm, moist air.  Highs tomorrow will warm up near 70, but we will dodge some showers and storms from time to time.  It will not be a washout though.  

The real action arrives on Thursday as the strong storm system drags a cold front into the state.

Here is a quick breakdown:

-Widespread rain and thunderstorms will move in throughout the day Thursday and into Thursday night.

-Heavy rain amounts of 1"-2" will be likely state-wide.

-Lots of wind energy across the area.  Outside of thunderstorms, wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible through the day.

-Line of severe storms possible in the afternoon Thursday, into the early evening.  

The best chances for severe thunderstorms will lie across southern Indiana, where moisture and instability will be greatest.  Damaging winds, large hail, and 1 or two tornadoes can't be ruled out.  This is not a major severe weather outbreak, but certainly something to really keep an eye on.  Here is the SPC outlook for Thursday:

At this time, trick-or-treating weather looks to be windy, rainy, and stormy.  I would imagine that most locations will move trick-or-treating to either tomorrow or Friday.  The best weather conditions will be Friday, as it should be completely dry.    

I will have more updates on my Facebook page.  Have a great day, take care.  

November-Like Temps - Snow Flurries - Warmer Weekend

Cold and frosty morning!! Temperatures dropped in the 20's and 30's area wide, with the first frost and freezes of the season.  Get used to it! There's more where that came from. The weather pattern over the next several days will be one more typical of late November!   

Sunny skies this morning will give way to cloudy skies this afternoon, and showers toward the evening.  Areas that see the clouds move in first may not get out of the 40's, and areas with more sun should reach the 50's. 

For tonight, there will be scattered showers around as a weak clipper system moves through.  After midnight, snow will mix in, especially north of Indianapolis. Those areas could actually see a few hours of snow flurries falling, but there will not be any accumulation.  

A lingering snow flurry or sprinkle is possible tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will only reach the middle 40's.  To give you an idea of how below normal this is, the average LOW temperature this time of year is in the middle 40's.  


Another weak system similar to the one tonight will move in late Wednesday night into Thursday.  A few snow/rain showers are possible. High temperatures on Thursday will once again be in the middle 40's.  

Lots of sunshine will return for Friday after starting off in the 20's.  Everyone should see a hard, killing freeze to end the growing season.  

The weekend as of now looks pretty good.  Sunshine in the forecast both days, with cold mornings and milder afternoons. A weak cold front may knock off our temps a few degrees from Saturday's, but high temperatures for most areas will be in the 50's both days.  Fall color should finally reach peak, so it will be a GREAT weekend to head outside to check out the great colors before they are gone! 

Right now, temperatures look to rebound in the 50's and 60's early next week.  The warm up however looks to be short-lived.

I will have another update tomorrow.  Have a great day!  

Big Changes Coming!

Hello everyone!  Sorry I haven't been keeping the blog updated.  College is keeping me pretty busy, and I don't have a lot of extra time on my hands.  I will continue to post when I can. You can still find frequent weather updates on my Facebook weather page.  https://www.facebook.com/Nathanwx

The weather has been about as good as it gets over the past week, and we have two days left of this marvelous weather!  Sunny skies with highs in the lower 70's, and morning lows in the 40's will be the norm.  My advice: soak it up!!! If you are not ready for the weather to change, do not read any further. :)  You have been warned.   

The changes start to arrive Tuesday.  Clouds will be on the increase as showers start to move in later in the day, then rain will remain in the forecast through the day on Wednesday, with perhaps a lingering shower or two into Thursday as well.

You will notice a huge change in the temperatures during this time.  Highs will go from the 70's Tuesday to the 60's Wednesday, then struggle to get out of the 50's in areas Thursday and Friday!  This is just one of two chilly air masses I am watching over the next 10 days.  

Next weekend, it appears a stronger blast of chilly air arrives, mainly for Sunday the 20th.  Highs may go from the 60's next Saturday, then struggle to get out of the 40's in spots by next Sunday. Low temps could fall to near freezing by the morning of the 21st - ASSUMING the models are correct.  Please keep in mind the models are consistently changing on how extreme this blast of chilly air will be.  The models may be too aggressive on the cold, and I think they will back off a bit as we get closer. I do however think it is looking like a good threat of our first area-wide frost or even light freeze between the 19-21.  Stay tuned!  

Rain Chances Increasing

Good morning everyone!  We have certainly been lucky as of late with gorgeous weather and fall-like temps, a sure turn around from last week when we had record heat.  Storm chances will be going up starting today, and increase as we end the week and begin the weekend.  Things have been VERY DRY around here for about two months now, but I think we will begin to make up for that between now and Saturday.  In fact, a widespread, soaking rain is looking likely. 

Let's get started with today.  Lots of clouds around today, and there will be showers from time to time.  Most of the rain will likely stay south of Indianapolis. Not a washout, and some areas won't see a drop. Temperatures for today are tricky. I think many areas will stay in the 70's today, but a few lower 80's are possible in areas that get a little more sun and less rain. Here's where you can track today's rain...

Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week with highs in the middle to upper 80's as the humidity cranks a bit. I can't rule out isolated storms, but most areas should remain dry.

It's Friday and Friday night when the storm action starts to increase big-time.  A strong storm system over southern Canada will cause a cold front to move into the area. The models have slowed the timing of the front down some, so most of the storm activity probably won't arrive until sometime Friday afternoon and especially Friday evening and night. Timing does not look good for Friday night football games across the area. I would definitely be prepared for a rainy evening. Here are a few images from the GFS showing the rainfall over the Hoosier state from Friday afternoon through Friday night.

I am getting concerned about Saturday's forecast a little bit. Some of the models cut-off the southern end of the trough, which could cause rain chances to linger through the day on Saturday. The best chance of rain on Saturday looks to be the southeastern half of the state.  I still think Sunday should be completely dry, with very pleasant temperatures. 

A gorgeous stretch of weather looks to take hold for next week with lots of sunshine and seasonal temperatures. 

FALL BEGINS AT 4:44 PM ON SUNDAY!!!! Thanks for reading the blog, have an awesome day!

Record Heat Followed By a Huge Cool-Down!!

NEAR RECORD HEAT... Officially 93° in Indianapolis today, and the heat index topped out at 100 around 4pm. We won't even see much relief overnight with lows slowly falling in the 70's. Tomorrow has real potential to tie (or even break) the record high of 95. I am forecasting 95 for Indianapolis. Keep in mind it will "feel" several degrees warmer than what you are seeing on the thermometers due to the very high levels of humidity. Heat indices will likely top out as high as 100-103 tomorrow afternoon. We can copy that forecast for Wednesday as well. I think this *could* be our last heat wave for the summer, so if you aren't digging this stuff just be patient! :)

STORM CHANCES!? We NEED RAIN!! Much of central Indiana has been stuck in this drier than normal pattern since July, and it seems relentless. A cold front approaching the area Wednesday night and Thursday will be our only hope for getting some rain. A few days ago this was looking like a good shot of decent rainfall, but the models have trended drier and drier with this system. PERHAPS .25-.50" of rain, but some areas will probably never get a drop of rain with this. 

BLAST OF CRISP - FALL AIR!! This is what we are all

waiting for, right?!! Once that cold front moves through late Thursday, we say good-bye to that heat and humidity, and hello to a true taste of FALL! Highs on Friday and Saturday could struggle to get out of the 60's in some areas, with lows falling in the 40's for a few mornings. Parts of northeast Indiana could even get down as low as the upper 30's. Talk about PERFECT weather for outdoor activities. Perfect camping and bonfire weather. :) 

Thanks for stopping by the blog. Have a great night and an awesome Tuesday! Stay cool!

A Look at Today's Rain Totals - Brief Drop in Humidity Before Major Heat Arrives!

FEAST OR FAMINE.. A LOOK AT TODAY'S RAIN

No surprise, but a lot of us MISSED OUT on the rain opportunity today. I mean check out the rainfall accumulation map. I picked up between .30-.35" of rain today with a downpour that moved over my house around 2PM. Just a couple miles from my house, not a drop fell.  VERY hit or miss. For Indianapolis, this now marks the 13th straight day with no rain recorded. We look to add several more days to that! 

BRIEF DROP IN HUMIDITY
As a cold front continues to push south of the state later tonight, winds from the north will help to usher drier, slightly more comfortable air into the state for our Friday and Saturday. Highs will still reach well into the 80's, but the drier air will allow overnight lows to be much cooler than the past several nights, so perhaps we can give the A/C a little break, because major heat is about to return! (details below)

HEAT WAVE COMING..HOTTEST OF SUMMER LIKELY!
As a ridge of high pressure to our west begins to expand into the Ohio Valley next week, it will bring very hot stuff our way. Each day next week looks to be 90 or higher, with middle 90's a good bet for the middle to latter half of the week! Some models have us getting as high as 97 degrees by the end of next week!! Any storm chances? Right now, storm chances look small, although the position of the ridge will be key. Right now I think the ridge will be close enough to keep any storm chances to our east, although if the ridge does not expand as far east as current models are showing, that could mean a slightly cooler scenario with more clouds and possible storm development, but I would count on it being hot and dry. The map below is the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day temperature outlook. Notice how much of the country is going to see above average temperatures! 

DROUGHT DEVELOPING?
As you know, things have been pretty dry as of late, especially for central Indiana, where we are now considered "abnormally dry" which is basically the beginning stages of a drought. The hot weather next week certainly won't help things out.