Tracking A Winter Storm For Northern Indiana Tomorrow - Snow Chances For Everyone Mid-Week

Good evening. The forecast is very complicated for tomorrow, no doubt about that. Northern Indiana is going to get hit with ice and snow, with major impacts to travel likely if your headed toward the northern 1/3rd of the state tomorrow. 

Here is a look at the GFS through the day tomorrow. Notice it keeps Indy just warm enough for rain. This model indicates north-central Indiana getting ice in the morning before switching to rain for a while during the afternoon. Northern Indiana will stay cold enough for snow, possibly mixing with ice. 

Based on that, here is my thinking for tomorrow. The precipitation moves in after 3/4am. I think the areas in the pink could have impacts with some freezing rain for the morning rush hour. I do think most of the counties in pink switch over to rain for a time tomorrow. The counties in blue will be snow, possibly mixed with sleet and ice for a time. Several inches of snow likely for South Bend and Gary. My forecast matches up with the current winter weather advisory issued by the National Weather Service for all counties in the pink and blue shadings. 

If your a snow-lover not in the area getting snow with this system, we are NOT done.  The system stalls out tomorrow night near Lake Erie, with colder air wrapping around the system. Rain showers will change to snow showers gradually from northwest to southeast late tomorrow night. This process may take until Wednesday morning for southern Indiana. 

Wednesday looks quite snowy. Widespread snow showers are likely for the entire state, with many areas likely to see a white ground at some point. The good part is temperatures will be above freezing, so roads may be in decent shape despite the snow showers. Locally heavy bands are possible, especially for areas north of I-70. Right now, I think areas along and north of I-70 could see anywhere from 1-3" (closer to 1-2" for Indy metro). That will be the additional accumulation on top of what falls tomorrow for northern Indiana. Southern Indiana could see localized 1" amounts. 

The pattern ahead looks quite cold and perhaps snowy for the first half of March. There are two other systems to watch closely (one possibly around March 6th, and the second around March 10th). The CPC is calling for a warmer than normal March for the entire area. I do NOT see any support to their thinking. The data points to much below normal temperatures for the next couple weeks at least. I guess we'll wait and see.





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