Wintry Pattern Taking Hold

The above average temperatures of the past few days are now a thing of the past as we are now on the backside of our system that brought showers to the area over the past couple of days.  Temperatures have been falling all evening long, and we are now seeing a light wintry mix.  Due to warm surface temperatures, no major travel issues expected but use caution especially on bridges and overpasses.  Drier air will work in later tonight allowing precipitation to end, but slick spots are possible in the morning as temperatures will be below freezing.  

GFS for 7am Thursday.  Image courtesy
 of tropicaltidbits.com

Tomorrow looks like a quiet day with mostly cloudy skies with chilly highs in the lower 30s.  A weak system could bring a few snow showers our way on Thursday.  Not looking like a big deal, but it's not completely out of the question that a few slick spots could develop on area roadways.   

I continue to track a system that could bring some light snow to the area late Friday night into Saturday.  Right now the trends are that this system will track a bit farther south, and a lack of phasing between the subtropical and polar front jet will mean a somewhat weaker system...however it is still early and that doesn't mean the models won't try to trend back to a stronger solution.  This system will enter the U.S. tomorrow night, and that is when the data will become more reliable for this system.   Right now, I will say there may be light snow accumulations south of I-70.  Perhaps an inch or so.  Here is the GFS model snowfall accumulation for Saturday....

Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Again, the data should come into better agreement over the next couple of days.  

As we head into Christmas week, all eyes will be on a potential big storm system developing over the eastern U.S.  The time-frame to watch will be late Tuesday into Christmas Eve.  Check out the significant trough by the middle of next week on the GFS ensembles....

Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Right now if I were to put out a forecast I would say a rain/perhaps wintry mix changing to snow late Tuesday into Christmas Eve, with a possibility of accumulations.  I continue to believe Indiana has a fairly decent shot of a white Christmas based on the pattern setting up.    

I will have more updates in the coming days.  Thanks for checking the blog and take care.