1/18 Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone.  I don't think I have to tell you its frigid outside.  BRR!  Highs struggled to reach the teens today, and tonight is yet another night with temps flirting with that 0 degree mark.

Two chances of snow this week.  One tomorrow night and Wednesday, and a stronger system to watch for Friday.  The storm for Friday will be dependent upon the eventual track of the storm and many other factors, but portions of the Ohio Valley have the potential to see a high impact winter storm during that time frame.  

First things first, let's talk about the system for tomorrow night and Wednesday:  Since yesterday, the models have trended quite a bit south with this system.  This puts the highest snow totals across western and south-central Kentucky, where several inches could fall.  Snow pushes in after midnight Tuesday night from west to east, with snow showers across central and southern portions of Indiana during the Wednesday morning commute which will make for slick travel.  Snow pushes out by late morning Wednesday.  Here is the latest snowfall map from the NAM, which is pretty close to my thinking for this event:

Map courtesy of Pivotal Weather

A model average generally has around 2" or so for Indianapolis.  Many areas across southern and southwest Indiana should see a solid 1-3". Isolated higher totals are possible across far southwest Indiana.  Heaviest in Kentucky.

Now to storm #2.  Models continue to show a storm system that would work through the Tennessee and Ohio Valley during the Thursday night through Friday night time-frame.  The northward extent of the storm is uncertain.  It would not take much of a shift in the track to put much more of Indiana in the line for impactful winter weather on Friday.  Models are indicating the potential for very heavy snow for the mid-Atlantic region extending into New England as the storm really becomes a powerhouse to our east.  Just know at this time there is potential for an impactful winter storm from parts of the Ohio Valley eastward through the mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast.  Data also suggests parts of the Ohio Valley could see some freezing rain and sleet in the mix as well.  Before I conclude this post...the evening run of the GFS just came in and is much farther north with moisture extent Friday, putting most areas along and south of I-70 in the line for accumulating snows.  Going to be fun to watch this storm over the next few days.  00z GFS posted below:

Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Have a great night and see you again tomorrow.