Very Cold Mid-week - Watching Weekend Storm System

Good Tuesday afternoon!  Arctic air continues to spill into the United States as we round out 2014 and begin the new year.  Check out how cold it could get around here tomorrow morning.....

GEM modeled temperatures 12z Wednesday.  Graphic courtesy of tropical tidbits.com

Northern parts of the state will likely see single digits for lows - with below zero temps lurking just off to our northwest.  The last day of 2014 will be VERY cold with highs ranging from the upper teens to middle 20s under mostly sunny skies along with breezy northwest winds.  

The cold begins to relax a little bit late in the week as we track our next storm system expected to move through this weekend.  The GFS model shows a wintry mix working into the state Friday night into Saturday morning.....

By Saturday afternoon, the GFS shows a rain event for the southern half of the state, a continued wintry mix north of I-70, with snow in far northern Indiana.  

Looking at surface temperatures on the GFS - there would definitely be a concern for some freezing rain for areas along and north of I-70 Saturday.  The GFS solution then indicates that precipitation would change to all snow showers Saturday night into Sunday with falling temperatures and gusty winds.  This is just ONE model and one run of the model....this WILL change.  However I do think the GFS solution makes sense given the pattern.  

I continue to see signs of potentially very cold air next week, even colder than what we are seeing this week.  Everyone who decided to write the winter off before December was even over are regretting that right now!  :)  I will try to keep the blog updated through the rest of the week, so check back for more updates.  

12/20 Video Forecast - Big storm system for Christmas Week

Be sure to click on my updated video forecast below.....if you are having trouble seeing the video below click the link here....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JRmuuplxK8&feature=youtu.be

Wintry Pattern Taking Hold

The above average temperatures of the past few days are now a thing of the past as we are now on the backside of our system that brought showers to the area over the past couple of days.  Temperatures have been falling all evening long, and we are now seeing a light wintry mix.  Due to warm surface temperatures, no major travel issues expected but use caution especially on bridges and overpasses.  Drier air will work in later tonight allowing precipitation to end, but slick spots are possible in the morning as temperatures will be below freezing.  

GFS for 7am Thursday.  Image courtesy
 of tropicaltidbits.com

Tomorrow looks like a quiet day with mostly cloudy skies with chilly highs in the lower 30s.  A weak system could bring a few snow showers our way on Thursday.  Not looking like a big deal, but it's not completely out of the question that a few slick spots could develop on area roadways.   

I continue to track a system that could bring some light snow to the area late Friday night into Saturday.  Right now the trends are that this system will track a bit farther south, and a lack of phasing between the subtropical and polar front jet will mean a somewhat weaker system...however it is still early and that doesn't mean the models won't try to trend back to a stronger solution.  This system will enter the U.S. tomorrow night, and that is when the data will become more reliable for this system.   Right now, I will say there may be light snow accumulations south of I-70.  Perhaps an inch or so.  Here is the GFS model snowfall accumulation for Saturday....

Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Again, the data should come into better agreement over the next couple of days.  

As we head into Christmas week, all eyes will be on a potential big storm system developing over the eastern U.S.  The time-frame to watch will be late Tuesday into Christmas Eve.  Check out the significant trough by the middle of next week on the GFS ensembles....

Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Right now if I were to put out a forecast I would say a rain/perhaps wintry mix changing to snow late Tuesday into Christmas Eve, with a possibility of accumulations.  I continue to believe Indiana has a fairly decent shot of a white Christmas based on the pattern setting up.    

I will have more updates in the coming days.  Thanks for checking the blog and take care.  

Get Ready For The Chill!!!

Good evening!  Arctic air is set to arrive by the middle of the week that will send our temperatures plummeting...feeling more like January than mid November.  While the cold air is the main story, this pattern also has the potential to bring some snow our way.  

Let's start things off on a postive note. :) Monday looks GREAT.  It may be a long time before we have another day this nice....so I advise that you make plans to get outside.  Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with highs shooting into the 60s, along with breezy southerly winds.  This warm-up will be in response to a storm system developing over the Plains which will deliver a ton of snow to the upper Midwest.  So while we will be soaking up the warmth tomorrow, folks across upper Midwest will be breaking out the snow shovels for the first time this season.  Check out the winter storm warnings (pink) and winter weather advisories (purple) that stretch from Montana to the upper peninsula of Michigan.  Some areas in the pink are forecast to receive over a foot of snow!  

This storm system arrives Tuesday bringing a band of showers through the state.  The rain does not look heavy and thunderstorms appear unlikely.  

Behind this storm system, arctic air will come pouring in, with the core of it arriving Thursday and Friday.  It is going to get really cold folks.  Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle to even reach the middle 30s, with parts of northern Indiana not even getting above freezing!!  Again, we are talking about HIGHS here!!!   Actual night-time lows will get down into the lower 20s, with upper teens possible on any night that sees clear skies.  Here are the 7am 850 mb temp snapshots from the European model for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 

Once the cold arrives, don't expect it to go anywhere too quickly.  Let's take a look at a couple teleconnections.  First, I will show you the NAO forecast.  The NAO tells us the amount of blocking present.  If you have a negative NAO, expect a more amplified jet stream pattern across the country.  If it is in positive territory, this means a more zonal, progressive pattern.  As you can see below, the NAO is going negative during this period. 

Now let's look at the PNA.  This basically indicates the jet stream configuration.  The PNA is going positive.  This means we can expect a trough in the east and a ridge in the west.  

Based on these teleconections and the overall pattern, things could get interesting next weekend as the models are indicating some sort of storm system potentially passing through the Ohio Valley.  Instead of looking at the models, let's look at the big picture.  The pattern supports an arctic blast moving in this week.  The pattern supports some sort of storm system developing to our southwest.  As this storm pushes to the east next weekend, the blocking pattern should allow it to curve north as it heads toward the east coast instead of simply heading out to sea.  However, there are still many smaller details that are in question.  For example how deep will the cold air be over the Ohio Valley when this storm moves through??  The bottom line that there is potential for some measurable snow in sections of the Ohio Valley later next weekend...however this is far from being etched in stone!

Old Man Winter is getting an early start this year!!  Thanks for reading and take care.  

A Cool Weekend - Frost Likely Tonight

UPDATED 9am SATURDAY: After the warm fall day yesterday, much cooler air will be the rule this weekend.  Expect a good deal of clouds around, with a breezy northwest flow.  These northwest winds will throw some lake-effect showers over the northeast half of the state.  Highs today will range from the upper 40s northeast, to upper 50s southwest.  

Frost Tonight:  High pressure will move overhead tonight, clearing out the clouds, and allow ideal conditions for the first widespread frost of the fall season.  Many rural locations could fall near the freezing mark.  The National Weather Service has already issued a frost advisory for all of central Indiana, with a freeze watch in northern Indiana.  Southern Indiana counties may eventually added in some sort of frost headline, but the NWS there held off on any frost advisories due to some concerns on how quickly the surface high will arrive to allow winds to go completely calm.  

Sunday is looking like a great day with sunny skies, and highs in the middle to upper 50s.  A great day to check out the beautiful fall colors now that we are entering peak season.  

Our next system arrives on Monday with some showers....

As that low pressure moves to our east, it will bring another shot of cooler air into our region.  

Highs will stay in the 50s through the middle of next week, along with another shot of some patchy frost.  The good news is that the second half of next week has a sunnier look to it, with temperatures returning into the 60s by the end of the week.  

A Fantastic Start to Autumn!

Updated 9pm Monday...... It turned out to be a beautiful Monday with plenty of sunshine.  Temperatures felt very fall-like, in the mid 60s this afternoon.  Speaking of Fall, it officially begins in an hour as of this blog typing, at 10:29 pm EDT.  

The weather for the rest of the week looks fantastic.  Mostly sunny skies will continue through the end of the week as high pressure will remain in control.  Our upper air pattern will shift from the trough over our area now to a ridge later this week.  This will translate to a nice warm-up in temperatures.  

Right now the upcoming weekend looks GREAT, with the dry weather continuing!  Highs will be in the upper 70's to near 80.  Our next rain chance may arrive sometime early next week.  

Enjoy the amazing weather this week and take care.