Big Snows Next Week?

Good evening! Just thought I'd drop by with an interesting update for all you snow-lovers!:) This is for next week leading up to Christmas. According to the the European and Canadian models, a perfect track for a heavy snowfall around Tuesday of next week. You can see that well on the european model on the left.

That is a wonderful track for all folks in Indiana to get pounded with snow. No I am NOT saying this will happen, just something to keep an eye on. I do find this interesting since the EURO has been on a roll this year. (for the most part, that is) :) I will have more on this over the next several days, as this forecast is subject to change.

In the short term, we have some crazy warmth about to hit the region! 60s even a possibility Wednesday! Here are your highlights...

-Cloudy and mild Tuesday, sprinkle possible. Near 50.

-Scattered showers, mainly before 2pm Wednesday. Temps hit 60 in Indy, even warmer south!!

-Heavy rains come to an end by Thursday afternoon, with cooler temps.

Here is the rainfall potential as the rain exits late Thursday...

This will not be as heavy as the past several rains we have dealt with lately. The heaviest rains will fall northwest of Indy, with flood-stricken southern Indiana only seeing a half inch to near 1". Still enough to aggrevate the already soggy ground.

More updates tomorrow. Have a good night!

Introducing Nate's Snow Buzz - Tracking Mid-Week Warmth and Rain!

Good afternoon! First off, what a gorgeous day! The sun is out, temperatures are well into the 40's! Won't complain for a second.

The overall pattern looks balmy and wet for awhile, outside of "cooler and drier days here and there." The models are just a mess right now, and just aren't handling the pattern well at all. There are a couple wintry threats I am watching for all you snow-lovers. Here are the "potential" systems I am watching on today's Nate's Snow Buzz chart below....


Nate's Snow Buzz (Potential Systems to Watch).......


-This Weekend (threat weakening)

-Dec. 20-22. (One to watch closely!!)

                                                               

What is Nate's Snow Buzz? It's a fun new edition to the blog, where I talk about potential snowstorms up to a month in advance. I will have in-depth analysis and discussion on each potential wintry system on the board above. You can expect may changes to the forecasting when predicting 3 weeks or more ahead. I hope you enjoy it! I will have more on this on the second half of the post, but first, let's talk about the upcoming weather for the short term. While I can't rule out a sprinkle or two tomorrow, the real action comes in Wednesday-Thursday. Based on latest trends, 60 looks reachable both Wednesday & Thursday!! Flip flops anyone? :) The system will move in Wednesday with showers likely ahead of a warm front. Here is a look at this.....

Wednesday Midday:



Rain likely ahead of a warm front.

Wednesday Night:

Warm front lifts north. Warm and dry.

Thursday:


Rain moves back in, especially by the afternoon.

Nate's SNOW Buzz!..... First off, I should mention that the overall pattern is NOT favorable at all for snow. The systems tracking through here just haven't had much cold air to work with. Despite all of this, the south has had more snow than much of Indiana! How is that possible? Well, we have had many cut-off lows, which are so dynamic they produce their own cold air to produce snow, with no arctic air nearby. At this point, we would need a cut-off upper low right over us to get any snow. I do see some snow potential for later next week, but can't get any details at this point. Because the models are having a tough time with the pattern, it will make it even more difficult to talk about any long-range forecasts. Here are the two dominant storm tracks next week:


The storm track to our south would be the one for a "blockbuster" snowstorm for us. My "gut" feeling is that it won't happen. Despite that, BRING ON THE SNOW! :) So in summery....


-Snow chances are low and very uncertain at this point from now through the New Year.


-Out of 1-10, I would give it a 3 on the chance of a white Christmas this year.


-Potential is there for at least some snow some point next week, including Christmas, but models are struggling with the overall pattern.


Yup, it's a tough pattern we are in! I will keep you updated each day with Snow Buzz updates each day throughout the winter season. Stay tuned! Have a great evening!

A Mild Pattern Moving In!

Good morning! After a chilly weekend, changes are on the way! We have a pretty rapid warm-up on the way. In fact, temperatures will be way above normal! How do some 50's in December sound?






Today should be the best day of the entire week. I know it's still chilly out there this morning, but with sunshine and a southwest flow, temps will soar to the middle and upper 40's, making for a great afternoon to be outside! 


As moisture in the air begins to increase tomorrow, can't rule out a few sprinkles, but most areas will stay dry with more clouds. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 40s, near 50 south of Indy metro. Rains still look on tap for Wednesday through early Thursday, with temps soaring into the middle 50's! When temps get that warm this time of year, you know rain is on the way!


A cool-down expected Friday through the weekend, but by cool-down I'm talking highs still around 40 or so. That's still very nice for December! Now where's the snow?? You may recall that I issued my winter forecast back in October, and I called for a very cold and snowy December. What happened? Well, the "Greenland Block" hasn't developed yet, as I predicted this to happen several weeks ago. There is NO blocking taking place right now, so that means the pattern (jet stream) is more or less flat, trapping the real cold stuff up in Canada, as a ridge to our southeast is persistant and keeping us mild most of the time. I do want to point out that I am still fully forecasting slightly above normal snows this winter, (especially for the second half of winter). We just need this blocking to get going, to get us in the cold and snow. There are signs of this happening around the end of the year, but I can't say any details at this point. I do think the rest of December will average out to being somewhat above normal, but by January, the pattern will likely have a huge flip to cold for the eastern half of the U.S. Stay tuned!


More updates later. Have a great Monday!

Warmer temperatures!

Good morning! It is another frigid start this morning, with temperatures in the teens! The good news is that warmer air will begin to filter in by the afternoon, with high temps in the range of 35-40 this afternoon!

Have a great day!

Another Frigid Night Ahead - Milder Sunday!

Before we get on with the weather... gotta admit, what an amazing win tonight for IU against the Kentucky Wildcats winning with a last second three-pointer, with the final score 72-73. What a thriller! Now to the weather...temperatures continue to drop like a rock at this hour, and expect lows to dip into the middle to lower teens tonight. Be sure to get the pets indoors tonight! Lots of sunshine is going to be the rule tomorrow. It will be a decent day shaping up with temperatures in the upper 30's. The milder air from the west is going to gradually begin to build in!

Have a good night! -Nathan

Chilly Weekend - MUCH Warmer Temps Coming!!

Good afternoon! Thanks for checking out the blog on this sunny and cold afternoon! Lows this morning dipped down in the teens, with the lowest temp being 11 degrees at South Bend. But.. sunshine makes a world of difference out there! Temps have recovered near 30 right now. Here's what I'm blogging about today....


Lunar eclipse this morning....... A total lunar eclipse was visible for the western U.S just before sunrise this morning, with a partial eclipse of the moon in the midwest. This picture was taken in frigid central Iowa, temperature there was 4 degrees this morning! Amazing shot though! 


Warming Up...... A zonal flow is going to build in over the next few days, resulting in a pretty rapid change in temps! Upper 30's tomorrow, 40's and dry Monday Tuesday, then potentially 50 or better Wednesday and Thursday! It looks like rain will begin Wednesday, the we will get in the warm sector Thursday. This is when temperatures could climb as high as 55 degrees across central Indiana! Very unusual for December! The SPC is already talking the potential of severe storms as a squall line will come in Thursday afternoon/evening. This will need to be watched closely, and I will updated you on that potential over the next several days!


MUCH colder next weekend!..... As the strong system exits early next Friday, much colder air will pour into the region for next weekend, resulting in temperatures down in the lower-middle 30's. Some models try to bring precipitation back our way later next weekend, and it would have potential to bring snow. However, the latest models have backed off on that idea. It now looks like yet another nice warm up the week of Christmas.. with another system tracking near the lakes, bringing more rain than snow for us. This would be around the 19-20th. I really want me some good ol' snow right now, but chances of that happening look slim, for now.


Thanks for checking out the blog, check back for more daily updates! Have a great evening!