Introducing Nate's Snow Buzz - Tracking Mid-Week Warmth and Rain!

Good afternoon! First off, what a gorgeous day! The sun is out, temperatures are well into the 40's! Won't complain for a second.

The overall pattern looks balmy and wet for awhile, outside of "cooler and drier days here and there." The models are just a mess right now, and just aren't handling the pattern well at all. There are a couple wintry threats I am watching for all you snow-lovers. Here are the "potential" systems I am watching on today's Nate's Snow Buzz chart below....


Nate's Snow Buzz (Potential Systems to Watch).......


-This Weekend (threat weakening)

-Dec. 20-22. (One to watch closely!!)

                                                               

What is Nate's Snow Buzz? It's a fun new edition to the blog, where I talk about potential snowstorms up to a month in advance. I will have in-depth analysis and discussion on each potential wintry system on the board above. You can expect may changes to the forecasting when predicting 3 weeks or more ahead. I hope you enjoy it! I will have more on this on the second half of the post, but first, let's talk about the upcoming weather for the short term. While I can't rule out a sprinkle or two tomorrow, the real action comes in Wednesday-Thursday. Based on latest trends, 60 looks reachable both Wednesday & Thursday!! Flip flops anyone? :) The system will move in Wednesday with showers likely ahead of a warm front. Here is a look at this.....

Wednesday Midday:



Rain likely ahead of a warm front.

Wednesday Night:

Warm front lifts north. Warm and dry.

Thursday:


Rain moves back in, especially by the afternoon.

Nate's SNOW Buzz!..... First off, I should mention that the overall pattern is NOT favorable at all for snow. The systems tracking through here just haven't had much cold air to work with. Despite all of this, the south has had more snow than much of Indiana! How is that possible? Well, we have had many cut-off lows, which are so dynamic they produce their own cold air to produce snow, with no arctic air nearby. At this point, we would need a cut-off upper low right over us to get any snow. I do see some snow potential for later next week, but can't get any details at this point. Because the models are having a tough time with the pattern, it will make it even more difficult to talk about any long-range forecasts. Here are the two dominant storm tracks next week:


The storm track to our south would be the one for a "blockbuster" snowstorm for us. My "gut" feeling is that it won't happen. Despite that, BRING ON THE SNOW! :) So in summery....


-Snow chances are low and very uncertain at this point from now through the New Year.


-Out of 1-10, I would give it a 3 on the chance of a white Christmas this year.


-Potential is there for at least some snow some point next week, including Christmas, but models are struggling with the overall pattern.


Yup, it's a tough pattern we are in! I will keep you updated each day with Snow Buzz updates each day throughout the winter season. Stay tuned! Have a great evening!