UPDATED WINTER FORECAST - WILL IT EVER SNOW?

Good evening, everyone! Okay... a familiar question lately, what happened to the cold and snowy December I predicted!?! The pattern all month long has featured a ridge to our southeast, active/mild pattern for us, and the polar jet WAY up north, keeping all the cold air locked up. Even each storm system that has moved through hasn't been able to tap into much cold air. We can thank the La Nina pattern, (despite last year's la nina that brought us all the snow). So let's investigate the weather pattern......


1. No blocking: When I issued my winter forecast in October, I was in full anticipation that a Greenland Block development, or the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) would go negative, creating a trough in the east with colder and snowier weather. That has not been the case. Take a look at the NAO chart (anything above the middle line means a +NAO) :





Because of the +NAO, this has led to the continued warmer temperatures and rain vs. snow so far. If the NAO would've gone negative (like I predicted) we would've had a repeat of last December. I do want to mention that just because it's positive doesn't mean it can't snow. Looking back at November 29th, even though Indy only got a trace, Peru did get 10". While cold air hasn't been around, sometimes these upper-level lows can produce their own cold air and produce snow, such as what happened in Memphis, TN TWICE so far this winter. The mid-south has had more snow than central and southern Indiana so far.


2. Are there changes down the road? Well, maybe. It does appear startospheric warming is going to take place over the poles. This usually produces much colder weather for much of the United States. Here is the the look at this on the day 10 GFS temperature analysis:



This may mean a period in January of much colder weather and snow threats. January will be the month to get our snow as warming will likely take over again sometime in February.


So here is my UPDATED winter outlook:


Rest of December: Milder than average, with above normal precipitation, mainly rain makers. Maybe Indy will set a record for the least amount of snow for December!


January: This will be the month for cold/snow lovers. I don't expect things to get as brutal as last year, but I do expect a sustained period of colder weather, (near the middle of the month) as the active pattern continues. (I also expect a couple moisture-laden storms during the month to produce potential thumping snows around here). January temps: near to somewhat above normal. January snowfall: Near/slightly below normal. 


February: A colder pattern will translate into a milder weather pattern, especially by the second half of the month, as an active pattern remains. Temps will be above average.


Overview.......


Winter snowfall will be slightly below average. Average snowfall for Indy is 27". If I were to give a number, I would go about 22" for the season total in Indy. (Keep in mind, I am in anticipation that a couple monster storms will be the only thing to bring the totals up. IF these big storms don't occur, Indy may not even get more than 15" for the season). Temperatures will be a bit above normal for the winter. (overall)



Thanks for checking out my updated winter forecast!!! Have a great night!