Tracking A Warm Up Mid-Week - Rain Chances

Good evening. Today turned out to be a nice, sunny day across the Hoosier state. Despite that sunshine, it felt quite cool out. We have a strong northerly flow across the Ohio Valley, due to a huge nor'easter not too far from here. It is SNOWING right now in western PA and western NY, and some areas have already picked up more than a foot. Think about it. That sure isn't too far from home. Check out The Weather Channel's Eric Fisher out in Somerset, PA, where they have picked up at least 6" of the white stuff so far...

It's not everyday that you see snow falling on top of green leaves!! Don't worry, snow is NOT in our forecast. Instead, we get to track warmer air on the way.

A LOOK AHEAD......

First off, we have another chilly night coming. Patchy frost is possible, but winds should stay up enough to limit any widespread frost. Still, prepare for temps in the 30's as you step out in the morning.

A mix of sun and clouds will be with us tomorrow. A weak disturbance *may* spark a shower or two, but the majority of the area can expect a decent day. It will be a bit milder, with temps ranging from 60-65 in most spots. This is still below normal. Winds will be much, much lighter, with just a gentle breeze. 

On Wednesday, a warm front will be lifting northward, with MUCH warmer air gradually moving in. This means a huge temp swing from north to south. South of the front, 80 degrees  is possible, and north of the front, struggling to reach 60. I think Indianapolis will pass the 70 degree mark, with southern Indiana well in the 70's, with northern Indiana staying MUCH cooler, mainly in the 60's. Here is the surface map for later Wednesday, the red line indicates the warm front.

While there is a chance of a few storms later Wednesday, the majority of the rain looks to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday. It looks to be in a MCS fashion, a.k.a (Mesoscale Convective System). The southern half of Indiana could see an inch or so of rainfall from this system!

Showers may hold on a bit on Thursday, especially from I-70 southward. Temps may hit 70 or better if you go south of Indy, but areas across northern Indiana will be much cooler. The majority of the area looks to stay dry Friday, with some cool air around.

For the weekend, it's looking very wild and active. A front may stall out across central Indiana, with periods of showers and storms. There may also be a huge temper

ature gradient across the state. If the GFS verifies, southern Indiana will flirt with 80 Saturday, with northern Indiana struggling to reach 50!!! Obviously, this forecast is just too low of confidence to really put into detail, so stay tuned.

Have a great night, everyone!