Latest on early week system

C-O-L-D morning outside! Waking up to wind chills in the teen, and temperatures in the middle 20's. Despite some sunshine off and on today, temperatures will be slow to warm. Middle 30's for most areas.

Sunday will be a bit milder, partial sun and highs in the middle 40's.

Now to the early week system advertised on the blog since the 17th. This one has been fun, yet aggravating tracking on the models, as they have flip-flopped so much. At first they agreed on a weak, southern storm system, (which is what's expected now) to a stronger, farther north track. Since Thursday, the models have been waffling back and forth and very inconsistent. While things are becoming more clear now, the details are still shady.

It is clear now that this will be a weak storm system that will track south of Indiana. As it does, a light mix of rain and snow is expected to develop across parts of southern Indiana by Monday evening. That should briefly change over to a period of light snow Monday night. It appears the snow side of the system will only be about 50 miles wide, so PLACEMENT IS EVERYTHING when it comes to who gets the snow, and who gets nothing.

Snow amounts, if any, are hard to pinpoint still because of the timing of the system. If more falls during the day, I don't see any accumulation. If it works out to fall during the night, light accumulations would be possible.

The HPC is catching on to the idea of light accumulations for southern Indiana Monday night. Shown below are the probabilities for 1-2" of snow. With the next update, this may need shifted even farther south, near the I-64 corridor.

The latest GFS shows a rain/snow mix across the southern half of the state late Monday night through Tuesday. Because it is slower with the system, it shows little or no accumulation.

The NAM is farther south, but more narrow and robust with the snow band. The NAM is also faster, bringing it in Monday evening/night.

This model also shows the potential for a couple inches of snow across extreme southern Indiana and northern Kentucky Monday night.

Here are MY thoughts on how this plays out: Right now I like how the NAM models is playing out the system overall. I think light rain/snow showers will break out Monday evening across southern Indiana, switching over to a period of light snow/flurries into Tuesday morning. I think the system stays far enough south that areas north of Bloomington/Columbus may see nothing at all from this system. Again, this forecast is certainly NOT set in stone yet.

The updated model runs will be coming within the next two hours. I will post those updates on facebook. Stay tuned!