UPDATE on next week's storm.

Good evening! Sorry I haven't been updating the blog as much lately. While I am so busy, I still try to post quick updates via facebook. So if you haven't liked my page, the link is at the top of the page.

The main topic of the blog will be next week's interesting set-up, but here are some quick thoughts about our weather between now and Sunday:

-GREAT weather through Thanksgiving, as sunshine returns. Highs in the low 60's.

-CHANGES arrive beginning Black Friday, with falling temps into the 40's and some rain showers as shoppers head out well before daylight.

-COLD weekend! Saturday stays in the 30's, and Sunday in the low-mid 40's. Wind chills even colder. Other than flurries for n/e parts of Indiana, a dry weekend can be expected. 

NOW TO THE FUN PART OF THE FORECAST :) NOV. 27-28..It's a very interesting and fun forecast as we head into the next week, and beyond. I have mentioned for a week now that the NAO indices are expected to go negative, perhaps strongly negative. Keep in mind, when the NAO goes negative, you can just about always count on cold weather locally. This is due to strong blocking over Greenland. Let's take a look at the indices shown on the models.

GFS NAO readings aren't off the charts, but certainly negative.



The EURO is very negative, off the charts in fact.


Both models agree that as cold air moves into the Plains states early next week, a storm will develop to our southwest, and then track our way. The models, however, are struggling with the intensity and track of the storm. Going back to last night, the GFS and EURO agreed on the storm being weaker and farther south, favoring accum snows for us. Today, the EURO decides to take the storm farther north and stronger as well.  It also appears the GFS has trended a bit closer to the EURO, but certainly not to its extent.

The GFS run from this evening has trended a little bit farther north, but such a set-up would feature a wintry mix to snow set-up, (all snow for some). Areas in the white circle would be the areas with the best chance of accumulating snow, again, according to the GFS.

The EURO on the other hand is stronger and farther north, with the low tracking near or just barely northwest of us. Such a set-up would favor rain, changing over to light snow as cold air rushes in behind the storm. Notice the accumulating snows would be much farther northwest if the current EURO were to verify.

SO WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT??? Good question. :) When I see the NAO so low, I would tend to favor a stronger storm, which would increase the chances of it tracking either right over or northwest of us. Because of the huge uncertainty, I would take a middle road approach, with a rain/snow mix and highs in the low 40's during this time. However, we can't take out the GFS's idea yet either. It is still a week out so basically expect daily changes to this forecast. Hopefully the models will have a much better handle on the situation in a few days. So bottom line, if you're a huge snow fan like me, just waiting for the first good snow of the season, it is still possible. Still too early for any more specifics..stay tuned!