STRETCH OF 50'S ON THE WAY - BIG CHANGES NEXT WEEKEND?

Good afternoon everyone! We are wrapping up the month of January, with a huge disappointment for snow lovers, including me! Indy has only received near 6" for the entire season so far, and only about 6-7 weeks until spring! Ole' man winter needs to wake up and get moving! The good news is that the mild pattern can't last forever, and a lot of signals are showing me that winter is going to really try to get going from February into March. :) More on that in just a moment.

First off, the winds! Today is going to be a very windy day! While southern Indiana is basking in sunny skies, I am watching areas north of I70 today, where snow showers are likely. If you live in the Muncie/Anderson area, a heavy snow squall is heading in your direction, and will make travel tough for a while. I zoomed in on radar, and you can see the snow from Noblesville to Muncie right now:



Keep that in mind if you are heading anywhere from Indy and points north.

Now we move on to next week. VERY warm temps will surge in the area from tomorrow-Thursday. Highs tomorrow will be near 50 as a warm front moves in. Tomorrow will be a great day for those headed out the the Super Bowl activities. Then perhaps upper 50's on Tuesday ahead of a cold front. With that said, that will create very gusty southwest winds on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing towards evening:




The good news is that any rain will move out by mid-day Wednesday, meaning much of the week will be warm and mainly dry for Super Bowl activities. It is beyond Thursday where the models are ALL OVER THE PLACE.

Instead of getting into the details, I will wait until the models show any trends. Here are what some models are showing right now:

EURO: Is showing possible accumulating snow Thursday into Friday, then an arctic blast of cold for the weekend.

GFS: It was on board for cold and snow next weekend, but keeps changing with every run. It now shows no snow at all, and says any cold will be quick, and warmer by Sunday. I'm NOT buying the GFS right now! It is completely out of wack! lol!!

Bottom Line: I think we will see a pretty big cold shot for the weekend, as the NAO dips into the negative catagory. I think the pattern is ripe for a winter storm during this time, but certainly just too far out to get into the details. If I were to go with the EURO right now, highs in the upper teens would be likely for Super Bowl Sunday, along with snow on the ground. Check out how far south the euro puts the cold air a week from today:



Now if you want to look farther down the road into February, the indices are lining up better for a wintry pattern around here:



Notice how the NAO dips into negative next weekend, then shifts slightly positive by mid-month. I still think February will be a better month for snow-lovers, but let's wait and see.

Have a great afternoon!