Where Has Winter Been???

I know, I know, this winter has been BORING for snow-lovers, including me. Despite that, it sure isn't lacking in the interesting department! I will get on to our snow chances in a minute, but first, let's talk about where we been, and where the pattern is going.

We simply have not seen any good snows yet, because the pattern has been WAY too fast moving. Even the few small snows we have picked up, they have been very quick moving, which is why we haven't had a good snow yet. This has been a winter with a zonal flow, meaning weak and FAST moving systems have been moving through the region, along with the cold air only being able to stick around for short periods. The cold air IS up there, in fact, it has been extremely cold to the north. The problem is that we have only been able to maintain a north wind for 24-36 hours, before switching directions back to the south. We have seen this take place over and over again this winter.


Another issue, are the jet streams. Something we call the northern and southern jet stream. The northern bracnch has stayed WAY north of us, keeping the cold air "locked up". So, even when systems have taken a "good track for snow here", the cold air has been lacking so much that it has caused all the huge systems to produce rain here. Just think for a second. What if all those big storms would of been snow. That would be a LOT of snow. Here is a better look at how the polar jet and the southern jet have remained seperate:



Here is the pattern we NEED to get a cold/snowy pattern around here:



We need that dip in the jet stream to help slow-down and deepen low pressure systems. So far, the Greenland Block has been absent.

Now if we want to get any idea what lies ahead of us, let's take a look at the NAO charts. To get a long-term trough, or big snows, we want the NAO to go negative. Let's take a look:

NAO: mainly neutral, slightly positive:



PNA: positive.



Ok, I know your probably getting bored of this geeky talk. :) Here are my thoughts for February:

I think the pattern will remain pretty similar, just a bit more amplified cold shots, and a few decent snow-makers. I think the pattern will give us some surprises, and I think temperature-wise will still be slightly above average, but there will be some more cold shots than January.

I have heard WAY too many weather blogs bashing that winter is cancelled. Don't you know it can snow into April around here? With all the big storms that have produced rain, if we get some cold air and the storms to link up, we will quickly add to our season total. I am NOT giving up at all! Just think, IF that system yesterday were to be an all snow event, we would be measuring in FEET!

Alright, let's get on to the present. A mix is still looking likely tonight, changing to all snow late tonight. Up to 1" of slushy snow is possible in Indy. Less south, more north. Here is the snow potential map from midnight-7am Saturday:




Not a big deal, but there may be slushy roads along and north of I70 tomorrow morning. The good news is that temps will stay near freezing through the event.

The next system arrives early Sunday. Flurries or snow showers will be likely, mainly north of Indy.



Beyond that, 50's are likely Tuesday-Thursday!! A few rain chances are possible during this time, but the warm temperatures will be great! It is beyond Thursday where things get interesting! Snow is possible next Friday or Saturday, then a potential arctic air mass moving in for Super Bowl Sunday. I will keep you updated on this over the next several days.

Thanks for checking out the blog. Sorry for the long update! Have a great rest of your day.