Tricky Forecast

Good morning! A gorgeous start to the day out there, as we finally got the sunshine back! While we have a tricky forecast over the next few days, today is anything but tricky, with ample sun and mild temps this afternoon in the lower 60's. ENJOY! 


Changes begin tomorrow. A system in the Plains states will be moving in. The good news is that the day will be mainly dry, as the showers don't arrive until the evening. Here is the latest timing and analysis from the GFS model:


Saturday overnight:



Rain moving in during this time, some moderate-heavy.


Sunday Morning:



Rain east, turning into a mix west of I-65.


Sunday afternoon/evening:



Snow showers take over.


I wouldn't rule out a quick dusting in areas that see heavier bands set-up. Now next week is a crazy forecast that is WAY up in the air at this point!!!! We could see anything from 10" of snow, to no snow at all, or just some rain. LOTS of UNCERTAINTIES in the models that need to be figured out quick!! Here are all the great variables that could take place:


1) Wave forms along front just to our east Monday, bringing us several inches of wet snow.


2) The system progressively moves off to the east, with us drying out for early week.


3) Cut-off low forms in the southeastern U.S. not affecting our weather.


Notice the Canadian model puts the cut-off low right over us, with higher chances of snow:



The differences are extreme, and that is why this needs to be watched very carefully!! I will have more updates later today. Have a great Black Friday everyone!