Sunday, November 9, 2014

Get Ready For The Chill!!!

Good evening!  Arctic air is set to arrive by the middle of the week that will send our temperatures plummeting...feeling more like January than mid November.  While the cold air is the main story, this pattern also has the potential to bring some snow our way.  

Let's start things off on a postive note. :) Monday looks GREAT.  It may be a long time before we have another day this I advise that you make plans to get outside.  Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with highs shooting into the 60s, along with breezy southerly winds.  This warm-up will be in response to a storm system developing over the Plains which will deliver a ton of snow to the upper Midwest.  So while we will be soaking up the warmth tomorrow, folks across upper Midwest will be breaking out the snow shovels for the first time this season.  Check out the winter storm warnings (pink) and winter weather advisories (purple) that stretch from Montana to the upper peninsula of Michigan.  Some areas in the pink are forecast to receive over a foot of snow!  

This storm system arrives Tuesday bringing a band of showers through the state.  The rain does not look heavy and thunderstorms appear unlikely.  

Behind this storm system, arctic air will come pouring in, with the core of it arriving Thursday and Friday.  It is going to get really cold folks.  Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle to even reach the middle 30s, with parts of northern Indiana not even getting above freezing!!  Again, we are talking about HIGHS here!!!   Actual night-time lows will get down into the lower 20s, with upper teens possible on any night that sees clear skies.  Here are the 7am 850 mb temp snapshots from the European model for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 

Once the cold arrives, don't expect it to go anywhere too quickly.  Let's take a look at a couple teleconnections.  First, I will show you the NAO forecast.  The NAO tells us the amount of blocking present.  If you have a negative NAO, expect a more amplified jet stream pattern across the country.  If it is in positive territory, this means a more zonal, progressive pattern.  As you can see below, the NAO is going negative during this period. 

Now let's look at the PNA.  This basically indicates the jet stream configuration.  The PNA is going positive.  This means we can expect a trough in the east and a ridge in the west.  

Based on these teleconections and the overall pattern, things could get interesting next weekend as the models are indicating some sort of storm system potentially passing through the Ohio Valley.  Instead of looking at the models, let's look at the big picture.  The pattern supports an arctic blast moving in this week.  The pattern supports some sort of storm system developing to our southwest.  As this storm pushes to the east next weekend, the blocking pattern should allow it to curve north as it heads toward the east coast instead of simply heading out to sea.  However, there are still many smaller details that are in question.  For example how deep will the cold air be over the Ohio Valley when this storm moves through??  The bottom line that there is potential for some measurable snow in sections of the Ohio Valley later next weekend...however this is far from being etched in stone!

Old Man Winter is getting an early start this year!!  Thanks for reading and take care.  

Saturday, October 18, 2014

A Cool Weekend - Frost Likely Tonight

UPDATED 9am SATURDAY: After the warm fall day yesterday, much cooler air will be the rule this weekend.  Expect a good deal of clouds around, with a breezy northwest flow.  These northwest winds will throw some lake-effect showers over the northeast half of the state.  Highs today will range from the upper 40s northeast, to upper 50s southwest.  

Frost Tonight:  High pressure will move overhead tonight, clearing out the clouds, and allow ideal conditions for the first widespread frost of the fall season.  Many rural locations could fall near the freezing mark.  The National Weather Service has already issued a frost advisory for all of central Indiana, with a freeze watch in northern Indiana.  Southern Indiana counties may eventually added in some sort of frost headline, but the NWS there held off on any frost advisories due to some concerns on how quickly the surface high will arrive to allow winds to go completely calm.  

Sunday is looking like a great day with sunny skies, and highs in the middle to upper 50s.  A great day to check out the beautiful fall colors now that we are entering peak season.  

Our next system arrives on Monday with some showers....

As that low pressure moves to our east, it will bring another shot of cooler air into our region.  

Highs will stay in the 50s through the middle of next week, along with another shot of some patchy frost.  The good news is that the second half of next week has a sunnier look to it, with temperatures returning into the 60s by the end of the week.  

Monday, September 22, 2014

A Fantastic Start to Autumn!

Updated 9pm Monday...... It turned out to be a beautiful Monday with plenty of sunshine.  Temperatures felt very fall-like, in the mid 60s this afternoon.  Speaking of Fall, it officially begins in an hour as of this blog typing, at 10:29 pm EDT.  

The weather for the rest of the week looks fantastic.  Mostly sunny skies will continue through the end of the week as high pressure will remain in control.  Our upper air pattern will shift from the trough over our area now to a ridge later this week.  This will translate to a nice warm-up in temperatures.  

Right now the upcoming weekend looks GREAT, with the dry weather continuing!  Highs will be in the upper 70's to near 80.  Our next rain chance may arrive sometime early next week.  

Enjoy the amazing weather this week and take care.  

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Storms & Heat

Thursday, August 21, 7AM UPDATE: A stationary front will trigger scattered thunderstorms today, mainly across central and northern sections of the state.  Some areas could pick up 1-2" of rainfall today with those heavier storms that move through.  Watch out for flash flooding, and never drive over a flooded roadway.  Short range models indicate storms will be most widespread this morning, then we may see a break in the action for a time this afternoon.  However, that will likely allow for more storms to develop towards this evening.   

High temperatures will range from the lower 90s over southwest Indiana where more sun and dry weather is expected, to low 80s in north east Indiana where clouds and storms will keep temps in check.  

A similar pattern for Friday.  Scattered storm chances, especially for the northeast half of the state.  All this storm activity is occurring on the edge of a big high pressure system to our southwest where the heat is really cranking.  This high pressure system should be enough to keep storm chances much lower over the western/southern portions of the state.  

The northeast half of the state should see decent rainfall totals over the next couple of days.  This is a good thing, as many of these areas have been getting pretty dry.  The bad thing, though, some of this rain will come too quickly and will likely cause flash flooding issues.  On the map below, notice the absence of rain over southwest Indiana, and over the Mississippi River Valley and Southern Plains.  That is thanks to that big high pressure system.  The map below indicates rain potential through 8 am Saturday...

As we head through the weekend that ridge is going to try and gain a bit more control over the area.  However, I still think scattered storms are going to occur over the northeast half of the state, especially on Saturday.  Another big story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY.  Highs this weekend will range from the upper 80s over northeast sections of the state to middle 90s over southwest Indiana.  The heat index, or 'feels-like temperature' when factoring in the oppressive humidity, will be 100-105 degree range both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  If you are going to be outside this weekend, remember to take it easy out there and stay hydrated.  

Also, I want to point out that the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for southwest Indiana, which is in effect from now through 7 pm CDT Saturday.  These counties include Gibson, Pike, Posey, Vanderburgh, Warrick, and Spencer.  These areas can expect highs in the middle 90s over the next several days, with heat indices as high as 105 each afternoon.

Make it a great day and take care.  

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Rain Moving In This Afternoon

1 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE: A warm front is producing a large complex of showers and storms in central Illinois.  This complex is diving southeastward, into the southwestern half of the state.  Indications are that this band will hold together enough for showers and storms across central and southern Indiana this afternoon.  The showers and storms having been loosing their punch somewhat, and they will likely weaken more as they continue to push through the state.  However, watch out for lightning and heavy rainfall.  The image below is a radar snapshot from 12:45 PM EDT.  

Friday, July 11, 2014


Good evening!  What a perfect stretch of weather over the past several days!  Sun, low humidity, and pleasant temps.  

Our pattern is changing over the next few days.  We are going to get hotter and much more humid for the weekend.  With the uptick in humidity come thunderstorm chances.  Let's dive in..

The way it looks now, it appears a weakening thunderstorm complex will sweep across central and northern portions of the state tomorrow morning.  This will likely not impact far southern Indiana.  Here is the HRRR model for 9:00 Saturday morning, indicating showers and t'storms approaching western portions of central and northern Indiana...

Areas south of Bloomington and Columbus may completely miss out on this round tomorrow morning, but wouldn't completely rule it out.  This complex looks to exit the state tomorrow afternoon, and most of tomorrow afternoon and evening look dry and hot.  Isolated to perhaps widely scattered t'storms are possible, but most of us stay dry.  You WILL undoubtedly notice the uptick in the humidity.  Highs will get as hot as 90 in southern Indiana, mid to perhaps upper 80s central, and low 80s north.  Good day to hit up the swimming pools, just remember when thunder roars...go indoors!  Important to note that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined northern Indiana in a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow...

Much better chances of t'storms arrives late Saturday night, throughout the day Sunday into Sunday evening, as 1 of 2 cold fronts push through.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of Indiana outlined in a slight risk of severe storms for Sunday.  

A secondary cold front arrives Monday which will bring more chances for some scattered showers or storms, but coverage will be less than Sunday's.  

How much rain can be expected over the next three days???  Overall, it appears most of us have a good shot at some rain at some point this weekend.  However, some areas may struggle to get much more than a quarter of an inch while another location gets 3" under a heavy thunderstorm.  Rainfall patterns can vary a lot during this time of year.  Parts of southern Indiana are getting pretty dry, so let's hope we get some widespread, soaking rain.  The GFS model does give us some hope...

After that second front moves through Monday evening, drier and MUCH COOLER air will move in for Tuesday through the rest of the week thanks to a monster dip in the jet stream!  Here is the map for Tuesday morning.  With a low-pressure to our north/east and a high in the upper midwest, the circulation around those features translates to a strong northerly flow over our region.  

Such a set-up will translate to highs struggling to get out of the 60s north of I-70 on Tuesday, and some locations in the 40s by Wednesday morning.  That's the middle of July!!  Temperatures stay cool through Wednesday and Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s with isolated 40s.  We do warm it up again by next Friday into the following weekend, how warm we get is to be determined.  Bottom line, a RARE shot of fall takes hold for much of next week.  ENJOY IT!