Thursday, August 21, 2014

Storms & Heat

Thursday, August 21, 7AM UPDATE: A stationary front will trigger scattered thunderstorms today, mainly across central and northern sections of the state.  Some areas could pick up 1-2" of rainfall today with those heavier storms that move through.  Watch out for flash flooding, and never drive over a flooded roadway.  Short range models indicate storms will be most widespread this morning, then we may see a break in the action for a time this afternoon.  However, that will likely allow for more storms to develop towards this evening.   



High temperatures will range from the lower 90s over southwest Indiana where more sun and dry weather is expected, to low 80s in north east Indiana where clouds and storms will keep temps in check.  

A similar pattern for Friday.  Scattered storm chances, especially for the northeast half of the state.  All this storm activity is occurring on the edge of a big high pressure system to our southwest where the heat is really cranking.  This high pressure system should be enough to keep storm chances much lower over the western/southern portions of the state.  

The northeast half of the state should see decent rainfall totals over the next couple of days.  This is a good thing, as many of these areas have been getting pretty dry.  The bad thing, though, some of this rain will come too quickly and will likely cause flash flooding issues.  On the map below, notice the absence of rain over southwest Indiana, and over the Mississippi River Valley and Southern Plains.  That is thanks to that big high pressure system.  The map below indicates rain potential through 8 am Saturday...



As we head through the weekend that ridge is going to try and gain a bit more control over the area.  However, I still think scattered storms are going to occur over the northeast half of the state, especially on Saturday.  Another big story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY.  Highs this weekend will range from the upper 80s over northeast sections of the state to middle 90s over southwest Indiana.  The heat index, or 'feels-like temperature' when factoring in the oppressive humidity, will be 100-105 degree range both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  If you are going to be outside this weekend, remember to take it easy out there and stay hydrated.  


Also, I want to point out that the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for southwest Indiana, which is in effect from now through 7 pm CDT Saturday.  These counties include Gibson, Pike, Posey, Vanderburgh, Warrick, and Spencer.  These areas can expect highs in the middle 90s over the next several days, with heat indices as high as 105 each afternoon.

Make it a great day and take care.  

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Rain Moving In This Afternoon

1 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE: A warm front is producing a large complex of showers and storms in central Illinois.  This complex is diving southeastward, into the southwestern half of the state.  Indications are that this band will hold together enough for showers and storms across central and southern Indiana this afternoon.  The showers and storms having been loosing their punch somewhat, and they will likely weaken more as they continue to push through the state.  However, watch out for lightning and heavy rainfall.  The image below is a radar snapshot from 12:45 PM EDT.  

Friday, July 11, 2014

HUMID AND STORMY WEEKEND - BIG COOL-DOWN NEXT WEEK

Good evening!  What a perfect stretch of weather over the past several days!  Sun, low humidity, and pleasant temps.  

Our pattern is changing over the next few days.  We are going to get hotter and much more humid for the weekend.  With the uptick in humidity come thunderstorm chances.  Let's dive in..

The way it looks now, it appears a weakening thunderstorm complex will sweep across central and northern portions of the state tomorrow morning.  This will likely not impact far southern Indiana.  Here is the HRRR model for 9:00 Saturday morning, indicating showers and t'storms approaching western portions of central and northern Indiana...


Areas south of Bloomington and Columbus may completely miss out on this round tomorrow morning, but wouldn't completely rule it out.  This complex looks to exit the state tomorrow afternoon, and most of tomorrow afternoon and evening look dry and hot.  Isolated to perhaps widely scattered t'storms are possible, but most of us stay dry.  You WILL undoubtedly notice the uptick in the humidity.  Highs will get as hot as 90 in southern Indiana, mid to perhaps upper 80s central, and low 80s north.  Good day to hit up the swimming pools, just remember when thunder roars...go indoors!  Important to note that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined northern Indiana in a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow...

Much better chances of t'storms arrives late Saturday night, throughout the day Sunday into Sunday evening, as 1 of 2 cold fronts push through.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of Indiana outlined in a slight risk of severe storms for Sunday.  

A secondary cold front arrives Monday which will bring more chances for some scattered showers or storms, but coverage will be less than Sunday's.  

How much rain can be expected over the next three days???  Overall, it appears most of us have a good shot at some rain at some point this weekend.  However, some areas may struggle to get much more than a quarter of an inch while another location gets 3" under a heavy thunderstorm.  Rainfall patterns can vary a lot during this time of year.  Parts of southern Indiana are getting pretty dry, so let's hope we get some widespread, soaking rain.  The GFS model does give us some hope...


After that second front moves through Monday evening, drier and MUCH COOLER air will move in for Tuesday through the rest of the week thanks to a monster dip in the jet stream!  Here is the map for Tuesday morning.  With a low-pressure to our north/east and a high in the upper midwest, the circulation around those features translates to a strong northerly flow over our region.  

Such a set-up will translate to highs struggling to get out of the 60s north of I-70 on Tuesday, and some locations in the 40s by Wednesday morning.  That's right.....in the middle of July!!  Temperatures stay cool through Wednesday and Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s with isolated 40s.  We do warm it up again by next Friday into the following weekend, how warm we get is to be determined.  Bottom line, a RARE shot of fall takes hold for much of next week.  ENJOY IT!  

Friday, May 23, 2014

Memorial Weekend Forecast

OVERVIEW: Beautiful weekend setting up with high pressure in control, meaning lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures.  Small storm chances may arrive by Memorial Day, then a more active weather pattern next week. 

TODAY: Lots of sunshine will continue all afternoon long.  Highs will reach the low to mid 70s across Indiana.  

TONIGHT: Expect clear skies along with the dry atmosphere in place which will allow temps to tank in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY: Saturday will be a
IMAGES COURTESY OF NOAA
wonderful day for all outdoor activities going on, as high temperatures reach the middle to upper 70s under a sunny sky.  For Sunday, expect a few more clouds for the southwestern half of the state, but at this time I think the high pressure will remain strong enough to keep any rain west of here.  The attached images to the right depict the surface map for Saturday morning, evening, and Sunday morning.  You can see how the area remains under the strong influence of high pressure.  Sunday's highs will be near the 80 degree mark for most locations.  For Memorial Day, you will begin to feel the increase in humidity along with the warmer temps.  Highs for Memorial Day will reach the middle 80s.  There may be a couple isolated storms, but most areas will stay dry.  Overall a perfect 3 day weekend weather-wise!!  

NEXT WEEK: A more unsettled pattern will return with daily scattered storm chances.  High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s on a daily basis with night-time lows in the 60s. 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!  

Friday, May 9, 2014

5/9 Severe Weather LIVE Blog

**BE SURE TO CLICK REFRESH (F5) FOR LATEST UPDATES**

7:44:  Stepping down from the LIVE blog, but keep in mind the severe threat is not over yet.  Remember the severe thunderstorm watch for SW Indiana remains in effect until 8PM CDT (9PM EDT).  I will post additional updates as needed on Facebook and Twitter.

7:27: More showers and storms are pushing across north central Indiana as well.  These are non-severe.  The storms are moving ENE.  Travel on I-65 in the Lafayette area, or I-74 near Covington, or I-69 on the south side of Ft. Wayne could be rough for the next couple of hours with blinding downpours, gusty winds, and lightning.  



7:19: Sorry for the delay in updating. ALL severe warnings have expired for Indiana, and no new ones at the moment, however these storms continue to produce gusty winds, lightning, and torrential downpours. 


6:42: Southern portions of Crawford county and all of Perry county remain under a severe thunderstorm warning until 7PM EDT.  These are the only counties in Indiana under warnings atm.  Main hazard:  damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph not out of the question. 

6:35: Here is a radar snapshot as of 6:30 EDT (5:30 CDT).  I outlined the areas at greatest risk for the damaging winds.  Basicially the Indiana counties bordering the Ohio River at greatest risk.  


6:32: Quite a few power lines and trees down with these storms.  Vectren is reporting 18,000 without power.  

6:28: Here is a photo courtesy of 14 WFIE News in Evansville.  This was taken outside of Diamond Valley apartments.


6:25: NEW COUNTIES added under warnings: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT/700 PM EDT/

* AT 515 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
  SANTA CLAUS...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
           ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TROY...ADYEVILLE...BRISTOW...RANGER...SASSAFRAS...LILLY DALE...
  GATCHEL...TERRY...APALONA...CELINA...BANDON...LEOPOLD...GERALD...
  SAINT CROIX...BRANCHVILLE...DERBY...CHENAULTT...MOUNT PLEASANT...
  AMMONS AND ORIOLE.

6:18: A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, and Warrick counties in SW Indiana until 800 PM CDT.




6:14:  Good evening folks.  Severe thunderstorms are pushing through southwest Indiana.  Evansville received a 67 mph gust, and wind gusts between 65 to 70 mph are possible as this tracks east.  Here is the latest on the warnings and areas affected:
 * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
  WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 454 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOONVILLE...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
           ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FOLSOMVILLE...DALE...SANTA CLAUS...TENNYSON...CHRISNEY AND
  GENTRYVILLE.