Friday, July 11, 2014

HUMID AND STORMY WEEKEND - BIG COOL-DOWN NEXT WEEK

Good evening!  What a perfect stretch of weather over the past several days!  Sun, low humidity, and pleasant temps.  

Our pattern is changing over the next few days.  We are going to get hotter and much more humid for the weekend.  With the uptick in humidity come thunderstorm chances.  Let's dive in..

The way it looks now, it appears a weakening thunderstorm complex will sweep across central and northern portions of the state tomorrow morning.  This will likely not impact far southern Indiana.  Here is the HRRR model for 9:00 Saturday morning, indicating showers and t'storms approaching western portions of central and northern Indiana...


Areas south of Bloomington and Columbus may completely miss out on this round tomorrow morning, but wouldn't completely rule it out.  This complex looks to exit the state tomorrow afternoon, and most of tomorrow afternoon and evening look dry and hot.  Isolated to perhaps widely scattered t'storms are possible, but most of us stay dry.  You WILL undoubtedly notice the uptick in the humidity.  Highs will get as hot as 90 in southern Indiana, mid to perhaps upper 80s central, and low 80s north.  Good day to hit up the swimming pools, just remember when thunder roars...go indoors!  Important to note that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined northern Indiana in a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow...

Much better chances of t'storms arrives late Saturday night, throughout the day Sunday into Sunday evening, as 1 of 2 cold fronts push through.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of Indiana outlined in a slight risk of severe storms for Sunday.  

A secondary cold front arrives Monday which will bring more chances for some scattered showers or storms, but coverage will be less than Sunday's.  

How much rain can be expected over the next three days???  Overall, it appears most of us have a good shot at some rain at some point this weekend.  However, some areas may struggle to get much more than a quarter of an inch while another location gets 3" under a heavy thunderstorm.  Rainfall patterns can vary a lot during this time of year.  Parts of southern Indiana are getting pretty dry, so let's hope we get some widespread, soaking rain.  The GFS model does give us some hope...


After that second front moves through Monday evening, drier and MUCH COOLER air will move in for Tuesday through the rest of the week thanks to a monster dip in the jet stream!  Here is the map for Tuesday morning.  With a low-pressure to our north/east and a high in the upper midwest, the circulation around those features translates to a strong northerly flow over our region.  

Such a set-up will translate to highs struggling to get out of the 60s north of I-70 on Tuesday, and some locations in the 40s by Wednesday morning.  That's right.....in the middle of July!!  Temperatures stay cool through Wednesday and Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s with isolated 40s.  We do warm it up again by next Friday into the following weekend, how warm we get is to be determined.  Bottom line, a RARE shot of fall takes hold for much of next week.  ENJOY IT!  

Friday, May 23, 2014

Memorial Weekend Forecast

OVERVIEW: Beautiful weekend setting up with high pressure in control, meaning lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures.  Small storm chances may arrive by Memorial Day, then a more active weather pattern next week. 

TODAY: Lots of sunshine will continue all afternoon long.  Highs will reach the low to mid 70s across Indiana.  

TONIGHT: Expect clear skies along with the dry atmosphere in place which will allow temps to tank in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY: Saturday will be a
IMAGES COURTESY OF NOAA
wonderful day for all outdoor activities going on, as high temperatures reach the middle to upper 70s under a sunny sky.  For Sunday, expect a few more clouds for the southwestern half of the state, but at this time I think the high pressure will remain strong enough to keep any rain west of here.  The attached images to the right depict the surface map for Saturday morning, evening, and Sunday morning.  You can see how the area remains under the strong influence of high pressure.  Sunday's highs will be near the 80 degree mark for most locations.  For Memorial Day, you will begin to feel the increase in humidity along with the warmer temps.  Highs for Memorial Day will reach the middle 80s.  There may be a couple isolated storms, but most areas will stay dry.  Overall a perfect 3 day weekend weather-wise!!  

NEXT WEEK: A more unsettled pattern will return with daily scattered storm chances.  High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s on a daily basis with night-time lows in the 60s. 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!  

Friday, May 9, 2014

5/9 Severe Weather LIVE Blog

**BE SURE TO CLICK REFRESH (F5) FOR LATEST UPDATES**

7:44:  Stepping down from the LIVE blog, but keep in mind the severe threat is not over yet.  Remember the severe thunderstorm watch for SW Indiana remains in effect until 8PM CDT (9PM EDT).  I will post additional updates as needed on Facebook and Twitter.

7:27: More showers and storms are pushing across north central Indiana as well.  These are non-severe.  The storms are moving ENE.  Travel on I-65 in the Lafayette area, or I-74 near Covington, or I-69 on the south side of Ft. Wayne could be rough for the next couple of hours with blinding downpours, gusty winds, and lightning.  



7:19: Sorry for the delay in updating. ALL severe warnings have expired for Indiana, and no new ones at the moment, however these storms continue to produce gusty winds, lightning, and torrential downpours. 


6:42: Southern portions of Crawford county and all of Perry county remain under a severe thunderstorm warning until 7PM EDT.  These are the only counties in Indiana under warnings atm.  Main hazard:  damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph not out of the question. 

6:35: Here is a radar snapshot as of 6:30 EDT (5:30 CDT).  I outlined the areas at greatest risk for the damaging winds.  Basicially the Indiana counties bordering the Ohio River at greatest risk.  


6:32: Quite a few power lines and trees down with these storms.  Vectren is reporting 18,000 without power.  

6:28: Here is a photo courtesy of 14 WFIE News in Evansville.  This was taken outside of Diamond Valley apartments.


6:25: NEW COUNTIES added under warnings: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT/700 PM EDT/

* AT 515 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
  SANTA CLAUS...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
           ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TROY...ADYEVILLE...BRISTOW...RANGER...SASSAFRAS...LILLY DALE...
  GATCHEL...TERRY...APALONA...CELINA...BANDON...LEOPOLD...GERALD...
  SAINT CROIX...BRANCHVILLE...DERBY...CHENAULTT...MOUNT PLEASANT...
  AMMONS AND ORIOLE.

6:18: A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, and Warrick counties in SW Indiana until 800 PM CDT.




6:14:  Good evening folks.  Severe thunderstorms are pushing through southwest Indiana.  Evansville received a 67 mph gust, and wind gusts between 65 to 70 mph are possible as this tracks east.  Here is the latest on the warnings and areas affected:
 * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
  WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 454 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOONVILLE...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
           ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FOLSOMVILLE...DALE...SANTA CLAUS...TENNYSON...CHRISNEY AND
  GENTRYVILLE.

Sunday, April 6, 2014

More Rain On The Way

Good evening!  What a beautiful spring weekend!  Yes the temperatures were slightly below average, but all that sunshine and dry weather was a welcome sight after 2-6" of rain last week!

The bad news is that the nice weather is not going to stick around to
start the week.  A system pushing in from the south will bring plenty of moisture into the Hoosier state.  Rain looks to push in from south to north after midnight, arriving to the I-70 corridor by 7am Monday.  Tomorrow will be a soggy, chilly day.  By time the rain moves out tomorrow night, .5" to 1" of rain will be likely, with isolated higher amounts.  Flooding has been a huge problem over the past several days, and the additional rainfall could cause additional problems.  Remember to NEVER drive over a flooded roadway.  

Tuesday looks better, but not great either.  An upper-level disturbance will swing through producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Due to very cold air aloft, don't be shocked to see some of these produce small hail.

High pressure pushes in Wednesday, bringing back ample sunshine and temperatures closer to normal.  

Thursday we will be sandwiched between a high pressure to our southeast and a low pressure to our north.  The tight gradient between these will push in a strong southwesterly flow.  While this means a windy day, it also means WARM temperatures will move in!  Highs near 70 if not a bit above for locations south of I-70 are likely.  A cold front will move in Thursday night into Friday, bring a chance for scattered showers or storms, but these should push out in time for decent weather Friday afternoon, with highs only slightly cooler in the 60's.  


Next weekend looks downright spring-like.  How does 70 degrees sound!!??  As of now I think Saturday should be mostly dry, with showers and storms likely on Sunday as a cold front approaches.  Timing of Sunday's front is still very uncertain right now, and changes to the forecast are likely between now and then.  Here is my updated 7 day forecast:

Friday, April 4, 2014

GREAT WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND

Good Friday everyone!  The past few days have been very active to say the least!  Showers and thunderstorms started moving in Tuesday night, and since then, rounds of very heavy rain have pushed through over and over again, particularly over the southern half of the state!  Check out the rainfall estimates over the past few days!  Most areas south of I-70 have seen anywhere from 3" to 8".  Those are insane amounts for only a 3 day period!  We have a plethora of flood watches/warnings/advisories in place.  Click here for details on all of that.  


Today, the heavy rain has FINALLY pushed east of the area.  We still have lingering drizzle/sprinkles at times today, but nothing that will cause any additional flooding.  It will be a windy, chilly, raw day with temps falling through the 40s.    

How is the weekend looking?  Spectacular!!  Expect a lot of sunshine, with highs in the 50's tomorrow, and near 60 Sunday, and frosty mornings.  Even though those temps are slightly below average, who is complaining?  That is pretty nice considering the weather we have gone through over the past few months.  

After a nice weekend, more April showers return.  Rain will quickly
arrive Sunday night, and Monday looks like a washout of a day with rain around.  Rain chances look to linger through Tuesday as well, although most of the rain falls on Monday.  More than 1" of rain will be likely.  

Temperatures will stay below average, mostly in the upper 40's to middle 50's through Wednesday, but a quick rebound in the 60's late in the week.