Good afternoon! After our incredibly warm Christmas weather, we are feeling a reality check out there as we prepare for the New Year's! We have plenty to track...here are some quick headlines.
Clouds will linger through mid-morning Wednesday, then depart for a sunny & bright afternoon!
Showers look to return Thursday afternoon across the southern half of the state, then widespread showers lift north & overspread the area Thursday night through Friday night with unseasonably mild temps.
Temperatures would drop throughout the day Saturday, as precipitation transitions to snow showers. There remain big differences in the data, though. The GFS is progressive and doesn't put down much accumulation. The European REALLY wants to deepen & slow down this system which would provide a more dynamic system with backside deformation snowfall accumulations, even with fairly marginal surface temperatures (air aloft would be cold & support snow). The Canadian model is more of a "middle-ground" between the two - suggesting snow showers Saturday with some light accumulation, especially central & north Indiana. Will monitor closely. Just know it turns chilly Saturday with snow showers in the forecast - and at least some potential to get some snow on on the ground. Here is the Canadian snowfall forecast on Saturday (courtesy of Pivotal Weather):
Rainfall late Thursday through early Saturday looks to average 0.50 - 1.00", causing additional minor flood issues. Highest totals southeast, where some higher totals are possible.
We then turn dry & relatively mild Sunday, with signals for another system next Tuesday-Wednesday. The Canadian & European models continue to highlight a wintry system in this time-frame.
If you look at the snowfall forecast from the 51 different European ensemble members for Indianapolis, this shows the wide variability between the models regarding snowfall (from nothing to lots), but highlight 2 distinct chances...one Saturday & again next Tuesday-Wednesday.
Temperatures over the next 15 days off the latest European Ensemble for Indianapolis:
More to come! Have a Happy Near Year's!
