Very Cold Mid-week - Watching Weekend Storm System

Good Tuesday afternoon!  Arctic air continues to spill into the United States as we round out 2014 and begin the new year.  Check out how cold it could get around here tomorrow morning.....

GEM modeled temperatures 12z Wednesday.  Graphic courtesy of tropical tidbits.com

Northern parts of the state will likely see single digits for lows - with below zero temps lurking just off to our northwest.  The last day of 2014 will be VERY cold with highs ranging from the upper teens to middle 20s under mostly sunny skies along with breezy northwest winds.  

The cold begins to relax a little bit late in the week as we track our next storm system expected to move through this weekend.  The GFS model shows a wintry mix working into the state Friday night into Saturday morning.....

By Saturday afternoon, the GFS shows a rain event for the southern half of the state, a continued wintry mix north of I-70, with snow in far northern Indiana.  

Looking at surface temperatures on the GFS - there would definitely be a concern for some freezing rain for areas along and north of I-70 Saturday.  The GFS solution then indicates that precipitation would change to all snow showers Saturday night into Sunday with falling temperatures and gusty winds.  This is just ONE model and one run of the model....this WILL change.  However I do think the GFS solution makes sense given the pattern.  

I continue to see signs of potentially very cold air next week, even colder than what we are seeing this week.  Everyone who decided to write the winter off before December was even over are regretting that right now!  :)  I will try to keep the blog updated through the rest of the week, so check back for more updates.  

12/20 Video Forecast - Big storm system for Christmas Week

Be sure to click on my updated video forecast below.....if you are having trouble seeing the video below click the link here....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JRmuuplxK8&feature=youtu.be

Wintry Pattern Taking Hold

The above average temperatures of the past few days are now a thing of the past as we are now on the backside of our system that brought showers to the area over the past couple of days.  Temperatures have been falling all evening long, and we are now seeing a light wintry mix.  Due to warm surface temperatures, no major travel issues expected but use caution especially on bridges and overpasses.  Drier air will work in later tonight allowing precipitation to end, but slick spots are possible in the morning as temperatures will be below freezing.  

GFS for 7am Thursday.  Image courtesy
 of tropicaltidbits.com

Tomorrow looks like a quiet day with mostly cloudy skies with chilly highs in the lower 30s.  A weak system could bring a few snow showers our way on Thursday.  Not looking like a big deal, but it's not completely out of the question that a few slick spots could develop on area roadways.   

I continue to track a system that could bring some light snow to the area late Friday night into Saturday.  Right now the trends are that this system will track a bit farther south, and a lack of phasing between the subtropical and polar front jet will mean a somewhat weaker system...however it is still early and that doesn't mean the models won't try to trend back to a stronger solution.  This system will enter the U.S. tomorrow night, and that is when the data will become more reliable for this system.   Right now, I will say there may be light snow accumulations south of I-70.  Perhaps an inch or so.  Here is the GFS model snowfall accumulation for Saturday....

Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Again, the data should come into better agreement over the next couple of days.  

As we head into Christmas week, all eyes will be on a potential big storm system developing over the eastern U.S.  The time-frame to watch will be late Tuesday into Christmas Eve.  Check out the significant trough by the middle of next week on the GFS ensembles....

Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Right now if I were to put out a forecast I would say a rain/perhaps wintry mix changing to snow late Tuesday into Christmas Eve, with a possibility of accumulations.  I continue to believe Indiana has a fairly decent shot of a white Christmas based on the pattern setting up.    

I will have more updates in the coming days.  Thanks for checking the blog and take care.