LATEST WINTER STORM OUTLOOK

Happy Friday everyone!  Before I get to the bad news, there is a little good news in the weather for now.  We have a brief warm-up on the way over the next couple of days.  Don't get used to it, because huge changes arrive beginning later tomorrow night as a potentially major winter storm moves in.

I updated the forecast for the short-term on my Facebook weather page.  For this blog I will only focus on the winter storm headed our way.  The NWS has gone ahead and issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for a good portion of the state.  This runs from late tomorrow night, and goes all the way through Monday morning.

 

This is going to be a long duration event.  It won't all come at once, it will come in waves through Monday morning.  We will begin to see some precipitation move in after midnight tomorrow night.  This will come in waves through 3:00 Sunday afternoon, then really pick up in intensity after that.  Temperatures for Sunday are tricky.  There is a chance the parts of southeast Indiana (Orange, Washington counties and points southeast) could stay warm enough Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon to only see plain rain.  However, even these spots quickly go below freezing Sunday afternoon and that is when the problems begin to occur.   

As we head into Sunday night, heavy icing is a big concern for extreme southern Indiana, before everything changes to snow by early Monday.  Here is my map for now.  I want to mention that the models have shifted the freezing rain farther southward, so the worst icing may even go south of Bedford/Seymour if trends continue.  I still think areas south of Bloomington and Columbus will have a lot of sleet which will cut down on snow totals, but sleet is SO MUCH BETTER that freezing rain.  There is question how much icing will occur in southern Indiana.  The big factor here is how long it will stay freezing rain before changing to sleet.  That will make a huge difference.  Areas closer to the Ohio river could see 1/4"-1/2" if not as much as as 3/4" of icing, again it all depends on the duration!  This could be enough to cause major problems to power lines, tree limbs, etc. so continue to keep a very close eye out on the latest forecast.  I will be closely monitoring the models today, and by this evening, I should have a much more detailed map.  **The exact track of this system could still change, and that will have big effects on the forecast.**

WINTER STORM LIKELY ON SUNDAY

Good morning!  Another arctic front is pushing through the state this morning, bringing even colder air!  The wintry pattern just keeps on keeping on, and a significant winter storm is likely for the second half of the weekend.  

Today will be brutal.  We have already hit our high temperatures early this morning.  Temperatures the rest of the day will stay steady if not drop a few degrees, even with full sunshine.  That is tough to manage considering the higher sun angle in late February.  

We do have a decent rebound in temperatures over the next couple of days, well at least considering how cold today is.  Our average high for this time of year is in the middle to upper 40's!!  Even with the "warmer" numbers over the next couple of days, we will remain below average.  

There is a weak system coming in tomorrow night, that should bring light snow across the state.  Some spots could see 1", other spots may totally miss out.  

The big weather story is the major winter storm expected for the second half of the weekend into Monday.  We have seen the models come in much better agreement over the past few days.  The entire state will be on the cold sector of this system, meaning everyone will see wintry forms of precipitation for the entire event.

SUNDAY:
Overrunning precipitation will begin late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  The "main" event looks to arrive after noon-time on Sunday.  Right now, the big question is precipitation type.  I can't get too detailed until tomorrow, as we need another day for the models to really begin getting a handle on things.  I think the entire state will be cold enough for wintry forms of precipitation out of this event.  Here is the map for Sunday.  Areas near the I-70 corridor north should be all snow, with icing potential across southern Indiana.

SUNDAY NIGHT:
This looks to be when brunt of the storm will occur.  We will see heavy amounts of snow/sleet/ice depending on your location.  

MONDAY:
This is when the storm begins to move out of our area.  Precipitation will transition to all snow before moving out.  




WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION CAN I EXPECT FOR MY AREA AND HOW MUCH?  I made out a *preliminary* map showing my thoughts at this time.  This may change a bit over the next couple of days.  Too early to really pinpoint how much icing accumulation may occur in southern Indiana, because so many questions and factors remain.  

I will have another update later this evening.  Have a great day!  

Arctic Blast Moving In - Winter Storm This Weekend?

Good evening.  Winter has returned in a big way over the past couple of days, and if you are looking for spring, you won't find it in the forecast anytime soon.  The pattern we have been in all winter refuses to let go.  If you think it is cold now, we have a stronger push of cold pushing in over the next few days which will be downright brutal.  This kind of stuff is crazy for late February.

We will have a streak of snow tonight move across southern Indiana.  I will keep a snow chance for areas south of I-70, with the best chance near the I-64 corridor from Evansville to Louisville.  A coating to 1" of snow could create slick roadways tomorrow morning.  Here is a snapshot of the HRRR model by 11pm this evening:

The next few days will be VERY COLD.  Highs in the teens, with some areas in northern Indiana not even getting out of the single digits thanks to snow cover on the ground.  Mornings will be dangerously cold, with below zero readings north, and single digits to low teens south.  The National Weather Service has issued a wind chill advisory for all areas north of Indianapolis for tomorrow morning, due to forecast wind chills of -15.  The good news is that lots of sunshine will be the rule with no snow threats.  At least we have one thing going for us.  :)  

We have a weak system that could bring light snow Friday night after sunset.  This system is looking weak, but 1" for most areas seems possible.

The main focus of the forecast will be a potential storm for the second half of the weekend into Monday.  We will have a huge temperature gradient over the Ohio Valley, thanks to a stationary front that will be stalling out.  Basically the southern U.S. will be very warm, the north will be very cold, and the Ohio Valley sits right in that boundary zone.  This set-up will spread precipitation through the region during the day Sunday and continuing into Monday.  This could be a big-time mess for Indiana, with significant amounts of snow and ice possible.  I want to quickly discuss what some of the models are showing below, because there is disagreement as is typically the case.  

The GFS (pictured below) paints a mess over Indiana.  It shows everything from a cold rain in far southern Indiana, ice in central Indiana, and heavy snow in far northern Indiana.  This model was farther south with everything yesterday.  

The European and Canadian models are taking the storm quite a ways farther south than the GFS.  I cannot post images of these models, but both bring heavy snow to central and southern Indiana, and keep any ice down in Kentucky.  Right now, I lean toward the Canadian/European models, but cannot discount the GFS solution either.  

At this point, the bottom line is that there is a potential winter storm setting up for the second half of the weekend into early next week.  The track and precipitation type is still very questionable at this time, and will be a few more days before I can get a good handle on any real details.  We will have to watch for the trends in model guidance, and see if we can come to a consensus a little bit.  With a potential winter storm in the forecast, I will post a blog each day to keep you all updated.  Until next time, God bless.  

Severe Weather LIVE Blog

***BE SURE TO HIT REFRESH TO SEE LATEST INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING***

11:43:  The risk for severe storms has finally come to an end for the entire state.  I will be stepping down from "live blogging" mode!  Have a safe night everyone!

11:04:  It looks like the Lawrenceburg area in southeast Indiana is getting hit pretty hard with very gusty winds.  Worst of storm will be east of state line shortly.

10:57:  For Clark, Wayne, and Union counties, your severe thunderstorm warning will expire at 11pm.  For Dearborn, Ohio, and Switzerland counties, your severe thunderstorm warning will expire at 11:15 pm.  I think once these expire, the severe risk should finally come to an end for ALL of Indiana.  If you live in extreme southeast Indiana and are still getting hammered, not much longer!

10:52:  Latest radar.  Squall line getting ready to push out of southeast Indiana.  Worst of winds ahead of the line should be east of the state now.

10:47:  ..A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST

FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND PREBLE AND SOUTHERN DARKE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
OHIO...

AT 1026 PM EST...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENVILLE TO LIBERTY...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 60 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARCANUM...EATON...CAMDEN AND LEWISBURG.

IN ADDITION...ABBOTTSVILLE...MORNING SUN...CASTINE...WEST
MANCHESTER...SUGAR VALLEY...MUTTONVILLE...LAKE LAKENGREN AND OKLAHOMA
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

10:42:  The National Weather Service has issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:   SOUTHERN RIPLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...

  SOUTHERN DEARBORN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
  OHIO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
  SWITZERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1115 PM EST.

* AT 1032 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG
  A LINE EXTENDING FROM CROSS PLAINS TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  LOCUST...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  WINDS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...
  VEVAY...
  RISING SUN...
  WARSAW...
  KENTUCKY SPEEDWAY...
  BURLINGTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

10:31:  ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EST

FOR RIPLEY...DEARBORN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...

AT 1016 PM EST...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM METAMORA TO REXVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. A TORNADO WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF RIPLEY...DEARBORN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 60 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERSAILLES...BROOKVILLE...DILLSBORO...MILAN...AURORA...
LAWRENCEBURG...GREENDALE...HIDDEN VALLEY AND BRIGHT.

IN ADDITION...REXVILLE...BENHAM...CROSS PLAINS...OLEAN...VERSAILLES
LAKE...FRIENDSHIP...FARMERS RETREAT AND PENNTOWN ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 145 AND 171...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

10:30: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  EASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  NORTHWESTERN TRIMBLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1035 PM EST

* AT 1003 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF VERNON TO SCOTTSBURG...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MADISON...BLOCHER...MARYSVILLE...DUPONT...NABB...WAKEFIELD...
  LEXINGTON...LANCASTER...FIVE POINTS...VOLGA...KENT...SWANVILLE...
  MIDDLEFORK...NEW WASHINGTON...SMYRNA...WIRT...CHELSEA...MADISON
  MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...HANOVER AND PAYNESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING

10:27:  ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EST FOR

NORTHEASTERN RIPLEY...NORTHERN DEARBORN AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...

AT 1019 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR BALLSTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATESVILLE AND OLDENBURG.

IN ADDITION...HUNTERSVILLE...SUNMAN...PENNTOWN...WEISBURG...NEW
ALSACE...LAWRENCEVILLE...SAINT PETER AND ST. LEON ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 145 AND 164...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF
FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

9:57:  ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DECATUR...

EASTERN BARTHOLOMEW...EASTERN JACKSON...JENNINGS...SOUTHERN RUSH AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EST...

AT 942 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM RUSHVILLE TO 6 MILES WEST OF GREENSBURG TO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NORTH VERNON TO 9 MILES WEST OF SCOTTSBURG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBURG...SANDUSKY...NEW SALEM...BUTLERVILLE...NEBRASKA...
MILLHOUSEN...CLARKSBURG...NEWPOINT...PARIS CROSSING AND LAKE SANTEE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 60.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 144.

9:27:  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EST

* AT 911 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM ENGLISH TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF ENGLISH...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MILLTOWN...HARDINSBURG...DEPAUW...FREDERICKSBURG...FRENCHTOWN...
  HANCOCK CHAPEL...ORGAN SPRINGS...FAIRDALE...RAMSEY...PALMYRA...
  SHORTS CORNER...CENTRAL BARREN...NEW SALISBURY...BRADFORD...
  MARTINSBURG...NEW PEKIN...BYRNEVILLE...DAISY HILL AND BLUE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

9:22: ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN

BROWN...NORTHWESTERN BARTHOLOMEW...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
SOUTHWESTERN RUSH AND SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EST...

AT 917 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF SHELBYVILLE TO SHELBYVILLE TO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASHVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...FLAT ROCK...CLIFFORD...MANILLA...ARLINGTON...GENEVA...
WALDRON AND MOSCOW.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 88.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 108 AND 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN SOMETIMES PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND
SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

8:42:  AREAS IN ORANGE ARE UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING AT THIS TIME.

8:38:  Line of intense storms pushing into Indianapolis.  Indianapolis is not officially in the severe thunderstorm warning - except extreme northern Marion county.

8:30:  ..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN GREENE AND

NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EST...

AT 817 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
65 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OWENSBURG AND SOLSBERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

8:13: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
  GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
  NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EST

* AT 807 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF BLOOMFIELD...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
           WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
           LIKELY.

7:54: From the National Weather Service:  * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
EASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EST

* AT 747 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
7:49:  Here is the latest look at RADAR.  Strong squall line pushing west to east at 70 mph.  Wall of damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph as the line pushes through.  Cannot rule out isolated embedded tornadoes.

7:44: TAKE COVER NOW :

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL DAVIESS AND
SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EST...

AT 727 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF PATOKA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VINCENNES...DECKER...VINCENNES UNIVERSITY...MONROE CITY AND
WHEATLAND.

6:42:  I have to step away from the computer for a very short time.  Hope to be back by 7pm.

6:41:  NEW Tornado watch being considered for central and southern Indiana, east of current tornado watch.  Line of storms approaching western Indiana shortly.



6:11:  ALL OF WESTERN INDIANA NOW UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST.  Conditions favorable for tornadoes and damaging winds as the line from Illinois moves in.



6:07:  Update from National Weather Service in central Illinois:  (Keep in mind the times are in central standard time)



6:03:  Several tornado warnings in Illinois.  Watching closely.

5:58:  Mesoscale discussion from SPC:

SUMMARY...AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG
   WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS W-CNTRL IL
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF
   E-CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL IND. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NE
   ACROSS W-CNTRL IL THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS
   AREA IS ON THE FRINGES OF THE BETTER WARM SECTOR FURTHER TO THE
   SOUTH. LATEST OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
   LOW 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
   MODEST MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG /WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED/ PER
   21Z MESOANALYSIS...WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER EAST UNDER CLOUDY
   SKIES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7-8 DEG C PER KM AND STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
   AS THE LINE MOVES E/NE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A NEW WW COULD
   BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS E-CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL IND. WHILE STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
   THAT AREA...THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS POORER WITH
   DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

5:53:  Here is the LATEST radar.  Line of storms racing eastward from Illinois.  These pack a widespread damaging wind threat, with the highest threat for locations south of I-70.

5:00:  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for western Indiana until 10pm EST.  Counties included are Clay, Daviess, Greene, Knox, Martin, Owen, Parke, Putnam, Sullivan, Vermillion, and Vigo counties.  SPC says local gusts up to 70MPH possible.



4:45:  A TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 9pm CST for Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, and Warrick counties in southwest Indiana.