Tracking Another Winter Storm Tonight!

Good afternoon! Tracking another winter storm to hit the area tonight. The areas in purple are under winter weather advisories, where several inches of new snow is likely..

Check out the storm system approaching from the south..

A snow/rain mix looks to arrive across southern Indiana around, or just after sunset. (5-6pm). That snow will advance northward to much of central Indiana by mid/late evening. 

-Moderate to even heavy snow will fall much of the night, especially areas southeast of Indy. It appears the areas hardest hit from the last storm will get hit once again.  Check out the snowfall potential for tonight.

Snow showers will continue off and on for Saturday, with an additional coating possible. If you have travel plans tonight or tomorrow, be prepared for snow-covered roads and very slick travel. The good news out of this is that the winds will be calm through this system, so this will be a rather peaceful snow falling overnight, but will continue to add onto what we already have out there.

I will have updates through the evening as needed on my Facebook weather page. If you haven't yet, please go and "like" it!  

https://www.facebook.com/Nathanlovesweather4

Blizzard Recap - More Snow On The Way For Some

Good afternoon. Our blizzard is behind us now, but wow, it was incredible. Some areas saw thunder, lightning, and snow all at the same time. (Known as thunder-snow) The snowfall rates were just amazing with areas getting 2-3" per hour yesterday morning. Most of the snow fell in a 7-8 hour period, and check out the snowfall totals across the state from this storm..

Some areas had more snow with this storm alone than the total for all last winter. For more details on the incredible blizzard, check out this detailed recap from the NWS... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=dec262012snow

MORE SNOW ON THE WAY? A southern storm system is expected to bring some moisture to state tomorrow night into early Saturday. Models are trending farther north with this system, along with more moisture, but NOT ANYTHING like the major storm we just had. Here is my first guess on potential snow totals, I will update this tomorrow.

Most of the models are in agreement now on the system, but how far north, how much moisture, and if rain could mix with the snow south are questions that will be answered tomorrow. 

Thanks for reading, have a great night!

NAM SAYS BAM! -MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY

Eye candy anyone?? The latest NAM model run has shifted the snow band southeast a good 75 miles, and you can see what a difference this shift is making on the snowfall potential. Check out how much snow this model puts down for area..

The updated GFS is coming in and looks very similar. Things are getting VERY interesting. Everyone in Indiana will get snow out of this, and I will have a snowfall potential map out later today. Wouldn't be surprised if the central part of Indiana got upgraded to a blizzard warning. 

The timing of the snow looks to arrive during the overnight Christmas night through Wednesday. For more updates on this storm like my Facebook weather page..http://www.facebook.com/Nathanlovesweather4?fref=ts

From Spring-Like To Wintry Later This Week!

It has been yet another unusual December day across the Ohio Valley. Parts of southeast Indiana and much of Kentucky had strong storms with hail this afternoon. In fact, some areas had so much hail it covered the ground. We're supposed to have snow on the ground in December, not HAIL! What a weird December its been!


In the short term, we have scattered showers still working their way across the state. Those should come to an end overnight. The next couple days look great weather-wise. Partly sunny skies and highs very mild, upper 40's tomorrow with 50's Wednesday. The average high is in the 30's.

Enjoy those days, because MAJOR changes work in by Wednesday night. A dynamic and powerful storm is going to develop across the southern Plains and track northeast, with storms and warm temps on one side, and a major snowstorm on the other.


For us, rain will be the much bigger story than snow. Rain and thunder should move in Wednesday night, with temperatures warming up to the lower 50's by Thursday morning. A WILD temperature swing will occur during the day, going from 50's late morning, to near freezing by the evening rush! Rain showers will quickly transition to snow showers by the afternoon, and howling winds will create bitter wind chills. Some slick spots would be possible for the evening commute Thursday, so keep that it mind. You can see the transition to wraparound snow showers on the GFS for Thursday afternoon and evening...

Accumulations however look very light locally. This will be one of those set-ups where, by time the cold air reaches the precipitation, the heaviest precipitation will have already moved through. I think we could see a coating to half inch in central Indiana, with perhaps 1-2" of snow for much of northern Indiana. Southern Indiana should not see any accumulation out of this. Check out the HEAVY snow band to our northwest with this storm, with 6"+ for many from Iowa to southern Wisconsin, and Michigan. Only if this could shift about 300 miles, then it would be game on for us.

Behind the storm, a colder weather pattern takes hold for the weekend into Christmas. Highs mainly in the 30's are expected during this time-frame. The models are already showing the potential for another powerful storm system on the 26th. Way to early to tell where it will track. I think it will most likely be another rain to snow shower set-up. The end of the month will likely be very interesting, and December looks to end on a much colder note. Stay tuned.

Warm Weekend - Wintry Change Likely Late Next Week!

So far we are on our way to the 3rd warmest December's ever in Indy, but, a MAJOR pattern change late next week could change that. Our pattern is finally looking better for cold and snow lovers, likely right in time for Christmas. Several systems to track from now until then, so let's get to the fun.

Some Rain Saturday, Warm & Dry Sunday: A storm system currently to our southwest will lift to the northeast and track north of us, bringing rain and balmy temperatures for the weekend. Since the storms' center will be well north of us, the best chances of widespread rains tomorrow will be across northern Indiana, but everyone has a decent shot of getting a little wet. Temps will be mild despite the showers, in the 50's. The forecast has really changed for Sunday! It appears a drier air mass will move in and end all rain chances. It will be VERY warm and breezy, highs near 60 degrees. Bottom line, Sunday will be a good day to be outside. 

Temps Up & Down Next Week, Flurries Tuesday, Arctic Air To End The Week? A cold front sweeps in behind the weekend system Sunday night, with cooler air moving in for the beginning of next week, but still staying slightly above average. The next system to watch will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. This disturbance is NOT expected to be a big deal at all. It looks like a few showers are possible Monday evening, then any precipitation leftover could change to flurries for Tuesday morning. The NAM does hint at a few flurries Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be chilly, with highs only around 40.

We will begin to see temperatures warm up Wednesday and Thursday, ahead of a strong storm system that is expected to draw ARCTIC AIR behind it, (easily the coldest of the season) by next Friday. Check out this image from the European model during this time, showing a powerhouse system over the area.

Look at that COLD air that is expected to invade the central, southern, and eastern U.S. by next weekend! Several days of highs in the 20's and snow showers would be possible with this set-up. That cold air mass should hold into Christmas Day as well. So will it be a white Christmas? That remains to be seen. At least we know that it's going to be cold, so anything that falls from the sky would be snow. More on this over the next several days. 

Pattern Finally Looking More Wintry!

Good evening. Hard to believe it is already mid-December, and 12 days away from Christmas! The weather has been absolutely fantastic the past several days for those hitting up the local malls, and quite mild for December standards. I think the weather so far this month has caused a lot of people to forget just how close Christmas is, as it has seemed to be unusually sunny and much above normal temperatures, even warmer than last December so far. It is very unusual to go this long in December without sustained cold or even snow for that matter. In fact, we haven't had a single flake this month. This blog should offer up smiles for those cold and snow-lovers, as our pattern FINALLY looks wintry, just in time for Christmas.

The next system of note moves in for the weekend. This storm will bring rain and mild temps. The rain should begin to break out Saturday around noon, and rain will be likely through the evening. The dry slot moves in Saturday night, with temperatures VERY MILD Saturday night, holding steady near 50 degrees! Rain will be more scattered in nature Sunday. WAY too warm for snow with this storm.

The next system is finally becoming more clear on the models. The models have all trended toward the weak storm scenario. It looks like light precipitation will move through Monday evening through Tuesday. The GFS indicates the precip will fall as a light wintry mix...

At this time it just looks too warm, and the precip looks too light to worry about any accumulations with this one. Still, it will be nice to see a few flakes fly. :)

It appears another system may impact the area by next Thursday, ahead of a big-time cold snap. Check out all the COLD AIR pouring into the central U.S. during this time next week..

All indications from the major computer models show much colder weather moving in for the end of next week, right into Christmas. Check out what the European model is showing for the weekend right before Christmas...

That is some intense cold! Now as far as precipitation, it's WAY too early to pinpoint that. If I were to take a stab at it right now, it mainly looks cold and dry during this period, but things can sure change this far out. I'm not giving up the hope of a white Christmas. At least it looks like we'll have the cold air in place. :) 

Thanks for stopping by my blog. It is very appreciated. Have a great night.

ACCUMULATING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERN INDIANA

The lake-effect snow machine is kicking in across northern Indiana tonight. It looks like many spots have received a coating of snow, and areas near the lake under the heavy snow band coming in could pick up several inches by morning. For the latest look at radar, check out the radars tab at the top. Here is the latest from the NWS in northern Indiana:

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS BY LATE TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BERRIEN COUNTY.
THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN
SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER 4 AM
EST. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITIES OVER SHORT DISTANCES DUE TO THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK TONIGHT DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF WETTED ROADWAYS REFREEZING.

The Pattern Is Looking More Wintry

Sorry I haven't posted in FOREVER. I've been busy studying for the ACT test, but now I am done for a while, so I will try to have a post at least 3 times per week. If our pattern really starts to look interesting for snow, I will have more frequent posts.

I highlighted the period of December 8-15 about two weeks ago for a major pattern change towards winter across the country. I am glad to say that has come to fruition, although many deny the pattern change we are dealing with. LOOK AROUND, the snow-cover across the country has increased rapidly. Last week at this time the snow cover across the country was at 14.4%. With the major winter storm that produced near record snow totals for December in the upper mid-west has increased the U.S. snow cover to 31.9%!!! Also, notice how DEEP the snow pack is up there in southern Canada. 

This is actually a major factor when it comes to our weather pattern. As cold air masses come down from Canada, snow-cover across the Plains helps these cold air masses from warming up as much as the head south. When there is a lack of snow cover to our north, it is harder for an Arctic air mass to make it this far south.

Here is a snow cover map from the same time last year. Notice it is more blotchy in nature, and not as deep in southern Canada. And last year, the snow cover never increased throughout the winter. That in turn, caused the air masses to moderate as the moved south, probably why we never had a "true arctic intrusion" last winter.

Storm systems love to track just south of the snow cover areas, and it looks like the system this weekend will do just that. 

The system for the weekend looks to track right across central/northern Indiana, but the air will be way too warm for any snow at this point, likely a rain event with this one. Maybe a flurry as the system exits, but that would be it as far as snow is concerned.

The weather pattern as we head toward late month looks VERY active! Will a storm system be able to bring us some SNOW, or more rain? Too early to tell, but if the snow cover to our north increases a bit more, (like I am expecting) then that should allow the storm track across the area to shift farther south, hopefully bringing us snow. Stay tuned snow-lovers. :)

EXTREMELY WARM START TO DECEMBER!

What a way to start the first day of December! Temperatures as of noon are already at or above 60 degrees. Dry weather can be expected for the afternoon, and temperatures will continue to warm a few more degrees, with just about everyone in the 60's for highs.

A disturbance will move in tonight/early Sunday, with some scattered showers. Most areas should see mostly dry conditions by tomorrow afternoon, so most outdoor plans are in decent shape. Highs will hit the 60's again.

And there's your weekend forecast! I have to get off because I am going dirt-biking and hiking this afternoon! Get outside and enjoy this weather.

Latest on early week system

C-O-L-D morning outside! Waking up to wind chills in the teen, and temperatures in the middle 20's. Despite some sunshine off and on today, temperatures will be slow to warm. Middle 30's for most areas.

Sunday will be a bit milder, partial sun and highs in the middle 40's.

Now to the early week system advertised on the blog since the 17th. This one has been fun, yet aggravating tracking on the models, as they have flip-flopped so much. At first they agreed on a weak, southern storm system, (which is what's expected now) to a stronger, farther north track. Since Thursday, the models have been waffling back and forth and very inconsistent. While things are becoming more clear now, the details are still shady.

It is clear now that this will be a weak storm system that will track south of Indiana. As it does, a light mix of rain and snow is expected to develop across parts of southern Indiana by Monday evening. That should briefly change over to a period of light snow Monday night. It appears the snow side of the system will only be about 50 miles wide, so PLACEMENT IS EVERYTHING when it comes to who gets the snow, and who gets nothing.

Snow amounts, if any, are hard to pinpoint still because of the timing of the system. If more falls during the day, I don't see any accumulation. If it works out to fall during the night, light accumulations would be possible.

The HPC is catching on to the idea of light accumulations for southern Indiana Monday night. Shown below are the probabilities for 1-2" of snow. With the next update, this may need shifted even farther south, near the I-64 corridor.

The latest GFS shows a rain/snow mix across the southern half of the state late Monday night through Tuesday. Because it is slower with the system, it shows little or no accumulation.

The NAM is farther south, but more narrow and robust with the snow band. The NAM is also faster, bringing it in Monday evening/night.

This model also shows the potential for a couple inches of snow across extreme southern Indiana and northern Kentucky Monday night.

Here are MY thoughts on how this plays out: Right now I like how the NAM models is playing out the system overall. I think light rain/snow showers will break out Monday evening across southern Indiana, switching over to a period of light snow/flurries into Tuesday morning. I think the system stays far enough south that areas north of Bloomington/Columbus may see nothing at all from this system. Again, this forecast is certainly NOT set in stone yet.

The updated model runs will be coming within the next two hours. I will post those updates on facebook. Stay tuned!

UPDATE on next week's storm.

Good evening! Sorry I haven't been updating the blog as much lately. While I am so busy, I still try to post quick updates via facebook. So if you haven't liked my page, the link is at the top of the page.

The main topic of the blog will be next week's interesting set-up, but here are some quick thoughts about our weather between now and Sunday:

-GREAT weather through Thanksgiving, as sunshine returns. Highs in the low 60's.

-CHANGES arrive beginning Black Friday, with falling temps into the 40's and some rain showers as shoppers head out well before daylight.

-COLD weekend! Saturday stays in the 30's, and Sunday in the low-mid 40's. Wind chills even colder. Other than flurries for n/e parts of Indiana, a dry weekend can be expected. 

NOW TO THE FUN PART OF THE FORECAST :) NOV. 27-28..It's a very interesting and fun forecast as we head into the next week, and beyond. I have mentioned for a week now that the NAO indices are expected to go negative, perhaps strongly negative. Keep in mind, when the NAO goes negative, you can just about always count on cold weather locally. This is due to strong blocking over Greenland. Let's take a look at the indices shown on the models.

GFS NAO readings aren't off the charts, but certainly negative.



The EURO is very negative, off the charts in fact.


Both models agree that as cold air moves into the Plains states early next week, a storm will develop to our southwest, and then track our way. The models, however, are struggling with the intensity and track of the storm. Going back to last night, the GFS and EURO agreed on the storm being weaker and farther south, favoring accum snows for us. Today, the EURO decides to take the storm farther north and stronger as well.  It also appears the GFS has trended a bit closer to the EURO, but certainly not to its extent.

The GFS run from this evening has trended a little bit farther north, but such a set-up would feature a wintry mix to snow set-up, (all snow for some). Areas in the white circle would be the areas with the best chance of accumulating snow, again, according to the GFS.

The EURO on the other hand is stronger and farther north, with the low tracking near or just barely northwest of us. Such a set-up would favor rain, changing over to light snow as cold air rushes in behind the storm. Notice the accumulating snows would be much farther northwest if the current EURO were to verify.

SO WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT??? Good question. :) When I see the NAO so low, I would tend to favor a stronger storm, which would increase the chances of it tracking either right over or northwest of us. Because of the huge uncertainty, I would take a middle road approach, with a rain/snow mix and highs in the low 40's during this time. However, we can't take out the GFS's idea yet either. It is still a week out so basically expect daily changes to this forecast. Hopefully the models will have a much better handle on the situation in a few days. So bottom line, if you're a huge snow fan like me, just waiting for the first good snow of the season, it is still possible. Still too early for any more specifics..stay tuned!

7-day outlook - CPC winter forecast - my thoughts on winter ahead!

Here is my forecast for the next 7 days... very quiet! We've got a nice rebound in temps starting tomorrow, and continuing for the next week or more. Highs in the middle/upper 50's will be common after tomorrow's low 50's. The only chance for a shower is Tuesday, and it's a SMALL chance. Thanksgiving Day is looking great...sunny and low 60's!!

The CPC has updated their winter forecast today, with "Equal chances" for above, below, or near normal temps. A big change from earlier, they now have the southern half of Indiana in above average precipitation for the winter.

I have been trying to put out my own winter forecast this year, but I have decided not to as I am just too busy with my studies preparing for college. I will tell you my thoughts at this point. I am going for slightly below normal temperatures and near normal snowfall. Nothing drastic from normal, but certainly a huge change from last year, if my thoughts pan out. 

I will not have as much time to keep the blog updated over the next several weeks. I will still be able to post quick updates on facebook, so be sure to "like" my page! Have a great rest of the evening!

Record Hot Again - Timing Storm Chances

Whew, it was a SCORCHER of a day! 102 officially in Indy, tying the record high of 102 in 1936. Seems like the terms "more record heat", "drought" have been very common terms  all summer long! Today was the 8th time that Indy has hit 100+. Think about that for a second. There are only four other summers in the record books that had heat similar to this year. We have been going through weeks and weeks of this unprecedented historical heat! Plenty of heat will stick around through the middle of the week!

Now that we have covered the hot part of the weather, now let's talk about storm chances, and yes, we actually have some chances! How about a early morning 'wake up call' to high winds, lightning, and torrential rains. I think this will be a good bet for areas from Indianapolis and points north/eastward. Here is my latest map with the track of these storms tonight:

There is also another chance of severe weather tomorrow, extending farther south as well. 

I will go with a 30-40% storm coverage tomorrow, with highs in the range of 91-97. Storm chances go down to 20% Wednesday, as the mercury should hit 100 for the 9th time this summer.

Storm chances really ramp up Thursday, as a front and a surface low move into the state. Severe weather looks like a decent bet with this system, so stay tuned!

Some areas will get some decent rain amounts, but most of us will not get enough to be major "drought busters." Northern Indiana picked up widespread 1-3" rains last week, and those same areas could get similar amounts yet again this week. Here is the HPC 5-day rainfall map:

I came across an interesting graphic from The Weather Channel concerning the drought, and how quickly it developed between May 15-July 17. This really gives the idea of just how much rain we SHOULD get between May and now, but how little we got this year!

Keep an eye on radar before you head out in the morning, as scattered storms are in the forecast after 2am! Have a great night, thanks for stopping by.

Explanation On The Heat and Drought Affecting Indiana - Why It Won't Be Easy to Break!

Good evening.Talk about a scorcher today! Indy broke the record of 100 set in 1887! We hit 101 degrees today, and the humidity only made it feel hotter. I've heard a lot of people say, "What ever happened to that cool-down that was supposed to happen last week?" In this blog post, I am going to explain why our weather pattern is so hot and dry right now, and why it won't be easy to break.


What's up with this crazy weather pattern? No doubt about it, this is the hottest and driest summer so far in Indiana. Our pattern became so warm and dry going way back in March, when large areas of high pressure kept influencing our weather, bringing lots of sun and day after day of temperatures way above normal. The very similar pattern held true all spring. These large masses of high pressure cause unusual dry spells of weather throughout the spring, causing a drought to develop over the area in late May.

In June, the dry weather continued, as our ground became drier and drier as the weeks went on, with basically no rainfall in many areas for much of June. This created a weather pattern that was more typical of a desert. Several "dry fronts" swept in for the first half of June, ushering in extremely dry air from the north, and the dry ground only helped to make the humidity even lower. This allowed for big temperature swings across the area, some cases as much as a 30 degree jump from morning to afternoon temperatures. A massive a.k.a "DEATH RIDGE" parked itself over the central plains & rockies during the second half of June, which caused all the wildfires to really get out of control in Colorado. This ridge began it's move farther east after the 25th, bringing some of the hottest weather to ever strike the state since the Dust Bowl days! Indy ended the month with consecutive days in the 100's. That same ridge leads us to where we are now. The dry ground has only allowed the temperatures to get hotter, because a dry ground heats up fast, which is why drought usually has scorching hot weather to go along with it. Since then, our weather has been dominated by temps between 95-101 degrees, day after day after day. While there have been pop-up storms during the afternoons, widespread rains have continued to be absent from the state.


Why this pattern will be hard to break: You may have heard the saying "drought begets drought." This phrase is very true, because hot and dry weather seem to go hand in hand. When you have a lot of moisture in the air, the atmosphere has to get rid of its moisture before heating up. This helps keep temperatures reasonable. Without any moisture, there is nothing to stop temperatures from rising quickly, along with few clouds to slow a warm-up. As a result, you get more days with those highs in the mid 90's to near 100.


The heat causes very fast evaporation of what little moisture is around, and helps the heat to intensify. So in turn, the two basically feed off each other. The only hopes at this point would be a big change in the Pacific temperature pattern to force systems into the midwest. There have been signs of relief in the next couple weeks, but so far, the rain department has remained rather spotty. The deficit will take months to make up. 


We have a 30-50% chance of scattered storms tomorrow through Friday. Much like today, they will be scattered, so some areas may stay dry. On another note, I am forecasting another day of triple digits tomorrow!



Thanks for reading, have a great night!

MORE HEAT, SMALL STORM CHANCES!

Well, so much for forecasting rain this weekend! Most areas missed out AGAIN, with only a few lucky ones. While much of the area missed out on the rain, a few did luck out. Parts of southern Indiana picked up a half-inch or so of rain yesterday, along with isolated pockets of heavy rain in north-central Indiana. Here is a map of today's accumulated rainfall. Notice how isolated the rain was!

A ridge of high pressure will build in over the next few days, bringing in more sunshine, and scorching temps surging close to 100 (again)! This summer's temperatures have been nothing short of incredible. It's not often that you go through weeks and weeks of temps in the 90's & 100's! The bone dry conditions is only helping bring these hot temps! We hit 95 today under high humidity, I think we will be in the range of 94-98 tomorrow, then 97-101 on Tuesday. Parts of southern Indiana may not get quite as hot where there is a slightly better chance of a few pop-up storms, but the heat will be the MAIN story. With the ridge positioned so far north, 100 degree heat could very close to the Canadian border this week!

A front will move in Wednesday/Thursday, bringing with it the next best chance of rain. Here is the GFS during this time-frame, likely WAY overdone...

That front may get hung-up somewhere near the Ohio River for the end of the week and weekend, so if that is the case, we could have at least a chance of storms Friday through next weekend, but southern Indiana would be most likely to get these storms.

Stay tuned for updates on the chance of mid-week storms. Hopefully we will get some rain. *Saying it very optimistically*

On another note, we will be adding plenty more 90+ days to the summer through the coming week. We are already WAY above average for the ENTIRE summer, and it's only mid-July. I believe the most ever was 58 days, (forget when that was set). We have 29 so far, (average is 18 for the whole summer). The way it's going, this could be the hottest summer ever for Indy. 2012 is already the warmest year EVER so far in Indiana. 

Thanks for stopping by the blog. You know the drill by now, stay cool!

Some areas getting soaked, other areas not so lucky!

Tracking a band of moderate rain across southern Indiana this afternoon. Other areas...not so lucky! For some reason, it seems like central Indiana can't buy a drop. This band is moving north, BUT.. it is weakening, and will continue to fall apart during the evening.

We have another threat of scattered storms tomorrow, but 

many areas in central and northern Indiana will once again be left DRY. Areas that DO get the rain, could get a good soaking. The heat is back early next week, with highs of 95-100 across central and northern Indiana. Southern Indiana should remain a bit cooler, with the chance of a couple storms each day. Most areas will remain dry.

A front will move in Wednesday/Thursday, but the drought will self-perpetuate, so I don't look for widespread rains, just the same ol' pattern, with a few lucky ones, with most areas missing out. I think parts of the area are going to get upgraded to the worst category of drought when the next update comes out this week.

RAIN ON THE WAY?

Good evening! Thanks for stopping by the blog. The intense heat has backed off over the past few days, but the dry ground is still helping warm our temperatures up in the 90's each afternoon.

First, let's talk about the drought. It just continues to get worse, and it's sad to see all the crops dying so early! This is the driest stretch to hit Indiana in 104 years!! The drought is even causing some trees to shed and lose their leaves! If you haven't heard, the mayor has banned all lawn watering in Indy. It's no wonder considering how deep we have gotten into the drought! Check out the latest drought monitor, as the area is under a severe to extreme drought, and as you will notice on the map, we are not alone!

Beneficial Rain Friday through early next week?  The same front that teased us on Sunday will move back north again, and will have a second chance to make us happy.

The models keep hinting that there will be a band, or "blob" of heavy rain moving along a vort max from Nashville, TN almost due north to Indiana. After this wave passes by on Friday, there will be more thunderstorms off and on through early next week. The weekend does not look like a total washout, but there will be showers/storms to dodge from time to time. Here are the totals I am expecting by Monday evening....

For a comparison, here is the HPC's thinking on the rain totals through Monday...

The two maps are similar, but I tended to be a little more conservative than HPC, given the dry conditions likely to affect the totals. However, I would not rule out a 3" total or two in southern Indiana, where heavy rains set-up.

Bottom Line: It looks like a nice wave of heavy downpours/thunder Friday, then off/on for the weekend through early next week. The weekend will not be a washout, but the radar will be a great tool this weekend! Even if rain comes during a weekend, I don't think anyone would mind the rain at this point! While this won't end our drought, this could provide a dent in the drought across the area, especially across the southern half of Indiana. 

These rainfall amounts still need to be tweaked over the next 24 hours, and I will have another update out tomorrow. Have a great night, and do a rain dance!

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER NEW RECORD HIGH!

Here we go again! We have already hit 96 degrees, and we will easily top out at 105 degrees today. The old record in Indianapolis is 99! The area will remain under the excessive heat warning through tomorrow evening.

The air quality is also down today. Much of the area is in the "unhealthy for sensitive groups" but parts of southern Indiana have been upgraded to the "unhealthy" category. This could make it difficult to be outside for those with health issues, such as asthma.

Here's your 7 day forecast, much cooler weather FINALLY returning next week!

IT'S SO HOT....THAT MAILBOXES ARE MELTING!!

You think I'm kidding? Check out these pictures of plastic mailboxes not able to stand the heat...

The heat wave has now gone postal. The heat continues through Saturday. Highs the next couple days will be around 105 degrees in Indianapolis, smashing more record highs! This could potentially be the hottest stretch of weather to EVER hit the state since records began being kept. Just incredible. 

MUCH COOLER and tolerable temperatures return starting Sunday, along with a chance of showers/storms Sunday into Monday.

The drought continues to be the other big story. Much of Indiana is either in severe or extreme drought conditions. 

A couple farmers are ALREADY cutting down the corn due to the severe drought causing devastating damage to the crops. This picture was snapped by Bam Chase Team.

Here is your 7-day forecast: