Very Cold Mid-week - Watching Weekend Storm System

Good Tuesday afternoon!  Arctic air continues to spill into the United States as we round out 2014 and begin the new year.  Check out how cold it could get around here tomorrow morning.....

GEM modeled temperatures 12z Wednesday.  Graphic courtesy of tropical tidbits.com

Northern parts of the state will likely see single digits for lows - with below zero temps lurking just off to our northwest.  The last day of 2014 will be VERY cold with highs ranging from the upper teens to middle 20s under mostly sunny skies along with breezy northwest winds.  

The cold begins to relax a little bit late in the week as we track our next storm system expected to move through this weekend.  The GFS model shows a wintry mix working into the state Friday night into Saturday morning.....

By Saturday afternoon, the GFS shows a rain event for the southern half of the state, a continued wintry mix north of I-70, with snow in far northern Indiana.  

Looking at surface temperatures on the GFS - there would definitely be a concern for some freezing rain for areas along and north of I-70 Saturday.  The GFS solution then indicates that precipitation would change to all snow showers Saturday night into Sunday with falling temperatures and gusty winds.  This is just ONE model and one run of the model....this WILL change.  However I do think the GFS solution makes sense given the pattern.  

I continue to see signs of potentially very cold air next week, even colder than what we are seeing this week.  Everyone who decided to write the winter off before December was even over are regretting that right now!  :)  I will try to keep the blog updated through the rest of the week, so check back for more updates.  

12/20 Video Forecast - Big storm system for Christmas Week

Be sure to click on my updated video forecast below.....if you are having trouble seeing the video below click the link here....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JRmuuplxK8&feature=youtu.be

Wintry Pattern Taking Hold

The above average temperatures of the past few days are now a thing of the past as we are now on the backside of our system that brought showers to the area over the past couple of days.  Temperatures have been falling all evening long, and we are now seeing a light wintry mix.  Due to warm surface temperatures, no major travel issues expected but use caution especially on bridges and overpasses.  Drier air will work in later tonight allowing precipitation to end, but slick spots are possible in the morning as temperatures will be below freezing.  

GFS for 7am Thursday.  Image courtesy
 of tropicaltidbits.com

Tomorrow looks like a quiet day with mostly cloudy skies with chilly highs in the lower 30s.  A weak system could bring a few snow showers our way on Thursday.  Not looking like a big deal, but it's not completely out of the question that a few slick spots could develop on area roadways.   

I continue to track a system that could bring some light snow to the area late Friday night into Saturday.  Right now the trends are that this system will track a bit farther south, and a lack of phasing between the subtropical and polar front jet will mean a somewhat weaker system...however it is still early and that doesn't mean the models won't try to trend back to a stronger solution.  This system will enter the U.S. tomorrow night, and that is when the data will become more reliable for this system.   Right now, I will say there may be light snow accumulations south of I-70.  Perhaps an inch or so.  Here is the GFS model snowfall accumulation for Saturday....

Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Again, the data should come into better agreement over the next couple of days.  

As we head into Christmas week, all eyes will be on a potential big storm system developing over the eastern U.S.  The time-frame to watch will be late Tuesday into Christmas Eve.  Check out the significant trough by the middle of next week on the GFS ensembles....

Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Right now if I were to put out a forecast I would say a rain/perhaps wintry mix changing to snow late Tuesday into Christmas Eve, with a possibility of accumulations.  I continue to believe Indiana has a fairly decent shot of a white Christmas based on the pattern setting up.    

I will have more updates in the coming days.  Thanks for checking the blog and take care.  

Get Ready For The Chill!!!

Good evening!  Arctic air is set to arrive by the middle of the week that will send our temperatures plummeting...feeling more like January than mid November.  While the cold air is the main story, this pattern also has the potential to bring some snow our way.  

Let's start things off on a postive note. :) Monday looks GREAT.  It may be a long time before we have another day this nice....so I advise that you make plans to get outside.  Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with highs shooting into the 60s, along with breezy southerly winds.  This warm-up will be in response to a storm system developing over the Plains which will deliver a ton of snow to the upper Midwest.  So while we will be soaking up the warmth tomorrow, folks across upper Midwest will be breaking out the snow shovels for the first time this season.  Check out the winter storm warnings (pink) and winter weather advisories (purple) that stretch from Montana to the upper peninsula of Michigan.  Some areas in the pink are forecast to receive over a foot of snow!  

This storm system arrives Tuesday bringing a band of showers through the state.  The rain does not look heavy and thunderstorms appear unlikely.  

Behind this storm system, arctic air will come pouring in, with the core of it arriving Thursday and Friday.  It is going to get really cold folks.  Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle to even reach the middle 30s, with parts of northern Indiana not even getting above freezing!!  Again, we are talking about HIGHS here!!!   Actual night-time lows will get down into the lower 20s, with upper teens possible on any night that sees clear skies.  Here are the 7am 850 mb temp snapshots from the European model for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 

Once the cold arrives, don't expect it to go anywhere too quickly.  Let's take a look at a couple teleconnections.  First, I will show you the NAO forecast.  The NAO tells us the amount of blocking present.  If you have a negative NAO, expect a more amplified jet stream pattern across the country.  If it is in positive territory, this means a more zonal, progressive pattern.  As you can see below, the NAO is going negative during this period. 

Now let's look at the PNA.  This basically indicates the jet stream configuration.  The PNA is going positive.  This means we can expect a trough in the east and a ridge in the west.  

Based on these teleconections and the overall pattern, things could get interesting next weekend as the models are indicating some sort of storm system potentially passing through the Ohio Valley.  Instead of looking at the models, let's look at the big picture.  The pattern supports an arctic blast moving in this week.  The pattern supports some sort of storm system developing to our southwest.  As this storm pushes to the east next weekend, the blocking pattern should allow it to curve north as it heads toward the east coast instead of simply heading out to sea.  However, there are still many smaller details that are in question.  For example how deep will the cold air be over the Ohio Valley when this storm moves through??  The bottom line that there is potential for some measurable snow in sections of the Ohio Valley later next weekend...however this is far from being etched in stone!

Old Man Winter is getting an early start this year!!  Thanks for reading and take care.  

A Cool Weekend - Frost Likely Tonight

UPDATED 9am SATURDAY: After the warm fall day yesterday, much cooler air will be the rule this weekend.  Expect a good deal of clouds around, with a breezy northwest flow.  These northwest winds will throw some lake-effect showers over the northeast half of the state.  Highs today will range from the upper 40s northeast, to upper 50s southwest.  

Frost Tonight:  High pressure will move overhead tonight, clearing out the clouds, and allow ideal conditions for the first widespread frost of the fall season.  Many rural locations could fall near the freezing mark.  The National Weather Service has already issued a frost advisory for all of central Indiana, with a freeze watch in northern Indiana.  Southern Indiana counties may eventually added in some sort of frost headline, but the NWS there held off on any frost advisories due to some concerns on how quickly the surface high will arrive to allow winds to go completely calm.  

Sunday is looking like a great day with sunny skies, and highs in the middle to upper 50s.  A great day to check out the beautiful fall colors now that we are entering peak season.  

Our next system arrives on Monday with some showers....

As that low pressure moves to our east, it will bring another shot of cooler air into our region.  

Highs will stay in the 50s through the middle of next week, along with another shot of some patchy frost.  The good news is that the second half of next week has a sunnier look to it, with temperatures returning into the 60s by the end of the week.  

A Fantastic Start to Autumn!

Updated 9pm Monday...... It turned out to be a beautiful Monday with plenty of sunshine.  Temperatures felt very fall-like, in the mid 60s this afternoon.  Speaking of Fall, it officially begins in an hour as of this blog typing, at 10:29 pm EDT.  

The weather for the rest of the week looks fantastic.  Mostly sunny skies will continue through the end of the week as high pressure will remain in control.  Our upper air pattern will shift from the trough over our area now to a ridge later this week.  This will translate to a nice warm-up in temperatures.  

Right now the upcoming weekend looks GREAT, with the dry weather continuing!  Highs will be in the upper 70's to near 80.  Our next rain chance may arrive sometime early next week.  

Enjoy the amazing weather this week and take care.  

Storms & Heat

Thursday, August 21, 7AM UPDATE: A stationary front will trigger scattered thunderstorms today, mainly across central and northern sections of the state.  Some areas could pick up 1-2" of rainfall today with those heavier storms that move through.  Watch out for flash flooding, and never drive over a flooded roadway.  Short range models indicate storms will be most widespread this morning, then we may see a break in the action for a time this afternoon.  However, that will likely allow for more storms to develop towards this evening.   



High temperatures will range from the lower 90s over southwest Indiana where more sun and dry weather is expected, to low 80s in north east Indiana where clouds and storms will keep temps in check.  

A similar pattern for Friday.  Scattered storm chances, especially for the northeast half of the state.  All this storm activity is occurring on the edge of a big high pressure system to our southwest where the heat is really cranking.  This high pressure system should be enough to keep storm chances much lower over the western/southern portions of the state.  

The northeast half of the state should see decent rainfall totals over the next couple of days.  This is a good thing, as many of these areas have been getting pretty dry.  The bad thing, though, some of this rain will come too quickly and will likely cause flash flooding issues.  On the map below, notice the absence of rain over southwest Indiana, and over the Mississippi River Valley and Southern Plains.  That is thanks to that big high pressure system.  The map below indicates rain potential through 8 am Saturday...

As we head through the weekend that ridge is going to try and gain a bit more control over the area.  However, I still think scattered storms are going to occur over the northeast half of the state, especially on Saturday.  Another big story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY.  Highs this weekend will range from the upper 80s over northeast sections of the state to middle 90s over southwest Indiana.  The heat index, or 'feels-like temperature' when factoring in the oppressive humidity, will be 100-105 degree range both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  If you are going to be outside this weekend, remember to take it easy out there and stay hydrated.  

Also, I want to point out that the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for southwest Indiana, which is in effect from now through 7 pm CDT Saturday.  These counties include Gibson, Pike, Posey, Vanderburgh, Warrick, and Spencer.  These areas can expect highs in the middle 90s over the next several days, with heat indices as high as 105 each afternoon.

Make it a great day and take care.  

Rain Moving In This Afternoon

1 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE: A warm front is producing a large complex of showers and storms in central Illinois.  This complex is diving southeastward, into the southwestern half of the state.  Indications are that this band will hold together enough for showers and storms across central and southern Indiana this afternoon.  The showers and storms having been loosing their punch somewhat, and they will likely weaken more as they continue to push through the state.  However, watch out for lightning and heavy rainfall.  The image below is a radar snapshot from 12:45 PM EDT.  

HUMID AND STORMY WEEKEND - BIG COOL-DOWN NEXT WEEK

Good evening!  What a perfect stretch of weather over the past several days!  Sun, low humidity, and pleasant temps.  

Our pattern is changing over the next few days.  We are going to get hotter and much more humid for the weekend.  With the uptick in humidity come thunderstorm chances.  Let's dive in..

The way it looks now, it appears a weakening thunderstorm complex will sweep across central and northern portions of the state tomorrow morning.  This will likely not impact far southern Indiana.  Here is the HRRR model for 9:00 Saturday morning, indicating showers and t'storms approaching western portions of central and northern Indiana...

Areas south of Bloomington and Columbus may completely miss out on this round tomorrow morning, but wouldn't completely rule it out.  This complex looks to exit the state tomorrow afternoon, and most of tomorrow afternoon and evening look dry and hot.  Isolated to perhaps widely scattered t'storms are possible, but most of us stay dry.  You WILL undoubtedly notice the uptick in the humidity.  Highs will get as hot as 90 in southern Indiana, mid to perhaps upper 80s central, and low 80s north.  Good day to hit up the swimming pools, just remember when thunder roars...go indoors!  Important to note that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined northern Indiana in a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow...

Much better chances of t'storms arrives late Saturday night, throughout the day Sunday into Sunday evening, as 1 of 2 cold fronts push through.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of Indiana outlined in a slight risk of severe storms for Sunday.  

A secondary cold front arrives Monday which will bring more chances for some scattered showers or storms, but coverage will be less than Sunday's.  

How much rain can be expected over the next three days???  Overall, it appears most of us have a good shot at some rain at some point this weekend.  However, some areas may struggle to get much more than a quarter of an inch while another location gets 3" under a heavy thunderstorm.  Rainfall patterns can vary a lot during this time of year.  Parts of southern Indiana are getting pretty dry, so let's hope we get some widespread, soaking rain.  The GFS model does give us some hope...

After that second front moves through Monday evening, drier and MUCH COOLER air will move in for Tuesday through the rest of the week thanks to a monster dip in the jet stream!  Here is the map for Tuesday morning.  With a low-pressure to our north/east and a high in the upper midwest, the circulation around those features translates to a strong northerly flow over our region.  

Such a set-up will translate to highs struggling to get out of the 60s north of I-70 on Tuesday, and some locations in the 40s by Wednesday morning.  That's right.....in the middle of July!!  Temperatures stay cool through Wednesday and Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s with isolated 40s.  We do warm it up again by next Friday into the following weekend, how warm we get is to be determined.  Bottom line, a RARE shot of fall takes hold for much of next week.  ENJOY IT!  

Memorial Weekend Forecast

OVERVIEW: Beautiful weekend setting up with high pressure in control, meaning lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures.  Small storm chances may arrive by Memorial Day, then a more active weather pattern next week. 

TODAY: Lots of sunshine will continue all afternoon long.  Highs will reach the low to mid 70s across Indiana.  

TONIGHT: Expect clear skies along with the dry atmosphere in place which will allow temps to tank in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY: Saturday will be a

IMAGES COURTESY OF NOAA

wonderful day for all outdoor activities going on, as high temperatures reach the middle to upper 70s under a sunny sky.  For Sunday, expect a few more clouds for the southwestern half of the state, but at this time I think the high pressure will remain strong enough to keep any rain west of here.  The attached images to the right depict the surface map for Saturday morning, evening, and Sunday morning.  You can see how the area remains under the strong influence of high pressure.  Sunday's highs will be near the 80 degree mark for most locations.  For Memorial Day, you will begin to feel the increase in humidity along with the warmer temps.  Highs for Memorial Day will reach the middle 80s.  There may be a couple isolated storms, but most areas will stay dry.  Overall a perfect 3 day weekend weather-wise!!  

NEXT WEEK: A more unsettled pattern will return with daily scattered storm chances.  High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s on a daily basis with night-time lows in the 60s. 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!  

5/9 Severe Weather LIVE Blog

**BE SURE TO CLICK REFRESH (F5) FOR LATEST UPDATES**

7:44:  Stepping down from the LIVE blog, but keep in mind the severe threat is not over yet.  Remember the severe thunderstorm watch for SW Indiana remains in effect until 8PM CDT (9PM EDT).  I will post additional updates as needed on Facebook and Twitter.

7:27: More showers and storms are pushing across north central Indiana as well.  These are non-severe.  The storms are moving ENE.  Travel on I-65 in the Lafayette area, or I-74 near Covington, or I-69 on the south side of Ft. Wayne could be rough for the next couple of hours with blinding downpours, gusty winds, and lightning.  

7:19: Sorry for the delay in updating. ALL severe warnings have expired for Indiana, and no new ones at the moment, however these storms continue to produce gusty winds, lightning, and torrential downpours. 

6:42: Southern portions of Crawford county and all of Perry county remain under a severe thunderstorm warning until 7PM EDT.  These are the only counties in Indiana under warnings atm.  Main hazard:  damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph not out of the question. 

6:35: Here is a radar snapshot as of 6:30 EDT (5:30 CDT).  I outlined the areas at greatest risk for the damaging winds.  Basicially the Indiana counties bordering the Ohio River at greatest risk.  

6:32: Quite a few power lines and trees down with these storms.  Vectren is reporting 18,000 without power.  

6:28: Here is a photo courtesy of 14 WFIE News in Evansville.  This was taken outside of Diamond Valley apartments.

6:25: NEW COUNTIES added under warnings: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT/700 PM EDT/

* AT 515 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
  SANTA CLAUS...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
           ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TROY...ADYEVILLE...BRISTOW...RANGER...SASSAFRAS...LILLY DALE...
  GATCHEL...TERRY...APALONA...CELINA...BANDON...LEOPOLD...GERALD...
  SAINT CROIX...BRANCHVILLE...DERBY...CHENAULTT...MOUNT PLEASANT...
  AMMONS AND ORIOLE.

6:18: A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, and Warrick counties in SW Indiana until 800 PM CDT.

6:14:  Good evening folks.  Severe thunderstorms are pushing through southwest Indiana.  Evansville received a 67 mph gust, and wind gusts between 65 to 70 mph are possible as this tracks east.  Here is the latest on the warnings and areas affected:
 * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
  WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 454 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOONVILLE...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
           ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FOLSOMVILLE...DALE...SANTA CLAUS...TENNYSON...CHRISNEY AND
  GENTRYVILLE.

SATURDAY OUTLOOK

More Rain On The Way

Good evening!  What a beautiful spring weekend!  Yes the temperatures were slightly below average, but all that sunshine and dry weather was a welcome sight after 2-6" of rain last week!

The bad news is that the nice weather is not going to stick around to

start the week.  A system pushing in from the south will bring plenty of moisture into the Hoosier state.  Rain looks to push in from south to north after midnight, arriving to the I-70 corridor by 7am Monday.  Tomorrow will be a soggy, chilly day.  By time the rain moves out tomorrow night, .5" to 1" of rain will be likely, with isolated higher amounts.  Flooding has been a huge problem over the past several days, and the additional rainfall could cause additional problems.  Remember to NEVER drive over a flooded roadway.  

Tuesday looks better, but not great either.  An upper-level disturbance will swing through producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Due to very cold air aloft, don't be shocked to see some of these produce small hail.

High pressure pushes in Wednesday, bringing back ample sunshine and temperatures closer to normal.  

Thursday we will be sandwiched between a high pressure to our southeast and a low pressure to our north.  The tight gradient between these will push in a strong southwesterly flow.  While this means a windy day, it also means WARM temperatures will move in!  Highs near 70 if not a bit above for locations south of I-70 are likely.  A cold front will move in Thursday night into Friday, bring a chance for scattered showers or storms, but these should push out in time for decent weather Friday afternoon, with highs only slightly cooler in the 60's.  

Next weekend looks downright spring-like.  How does 70 degrees sound!!??  As of now I think Saturday should be mostly dry, with showers and storms likely on Sunday as a cold front approaches.  Timing of Sunday's front is still very uncertain right now, and changes to the forecast are likely between now and then.  Here is my updated 7 day forecast:

GREAT WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND

Good Friday everyone!  The past few days have been very active to say the least!  Showers and thunderstorms started moving in Tuesday night, and since then, rounds of very heavy rain have pushed through over and over again, particularly over the southern half of the state!  Check out the rainfall estimates over the past few days!  Most areas south of I-70 have seen anywhere from 3" to 8".  Those are insane amounts for only a 3 day period!  We have a plethora of flood watches/warnings/advisories in place.  Click here for details on all of that.  

Today, the heavy rain has FINALLY pushed east of the area.  We still have lingering drizzle/sprinkles at times today, but nothing that will cause any additional flooding.  It will be a windy, chilly, raw day with temps falling through the 40s.    

How is the weekend looking?  Spectacular!!  Expect a lot of sunshine, with highs in the 50's tomorrow, and near 60 Sunday, and frosty mornings.  Even though those temps are slightly below average, who is complaining?  That is pretty nice considering the weather we have gone through over the past few months.  

After a nice weekend, more April showers return.  Rain will quickly

arrive Sunday night, and Monday looks like a washout of a day with rain around.  Rain chances look to linger through Tuesday as well, although most of the rain falls on Monday.  More than 1" of rain will be likely.  

Temperatures will stay below average, mostly in the upper 40's to middle 50's through Wednesday, but a quick rebound in the 60's late in the week.  

Very Active Pattern Ahead

Good morning!  Happy first day of April.  What a spectacular day yesterday was!  At South Bend, it was the warmest day since October 12, 2013!  That was almost a half year ago!  Crazy!  Highs everywhere ranged from 65-70, and boy did it feel great!

Today is shaping up to be another winner of a day.  A weak cold front will stall out over southern Indiana.  This means central and northern Indiana will be a bit cooler than yesterday.  Highs will range widely from middle/upper 50's north to upper 60's near 70 south.  We should see a good deal of sunshine most of the day.  

ENJOY TODAY, because changes start to roll in tonight.  Showers will begin to push in after sunset, and this will kick off a very unsettled period of weather for the rest of the week.  It does not mean each day will be a total washout, but plenty of showers and thunderstorms expected from tomorrow through Friday, which will have a TON of moisture!  We also have a risk for some severe storms.  The first chance comes late tomorrow into Thursday for far southwest Indiana, then a more widespread risk for Thursday night into Friday.  Here are the risk maps from the Storm Prediction Center...

Right now damaging winds appear to be the main concern with the threats.  This will be something to watch closely over the next few days.  The thunderstorms look to move out Friday afternoon, but not before seeing very heavy rain totals.  Flooding is another big threat over the next few days, so if you live in a low lying area be aware!  The latest GFS puts the heaviest totals over the heart of central Indiana, indicating 3-4".  

We will finally have drier, yet much cooler air move in this weekend.  Right now both days look dry with some sunshine.  Saturday will be the chilliest, with highs only in the upper 40's to low 50's.  On Sunday, highs return to 55-60 statewide.  

I know most of you won't like this, but it looks like temperatures will be returning below normal for much of next week.  Should be no surprise considering the year we are having.  That said, it won't be anything brutal--just cooler than where we should be.  Here is the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center...

Feeling More Like Spring

Good morning!  We are finally facing a more spring-like pattern for the week ahead!  The bad news is that this will bring a lot of rainfall to the area later this week.

Let's start with the SPECTACULAR weather for today!  Highs will surge into the 60's, and a spot or two in southern Indiana could hit 70!  Sunshine this morning will give way to increasing clouds this afternoon, and increasing south winds throughout the day.  A cold front moves through tonight bringing a few showers, but it will not be a big deal.  

Tomorrow looks like another great day for the most part.  Just a touch cooler than today, but a lot of areas still hit the 60's.  We will see sunshine most of the day, however shower chances arrive towards the evening, and that is just the beginning of a very active period of weather.  

Be sure to enjoy the next couple of days, because Wednesday through Friday look soggy!  The same cold front that moves through tonight will get stuck over the Ohio Valley, then come north as a warm front Thursday into Friday.  As a storm system moves through Friday, we could see a couple strong storms.  There could be heavy rain totals during that three day period, perhaps anywhere from 2-4"!  Check out how much rain the GFS is spitting out...

That is a lot of water!  Flooding is definitely a possibility and something to watch in the coming days.  

The good news is that we clear things out for the weekend!  Both days look dry, but MUCH cooler with highs only in the low 50's.

Get out and enjoy the beautiful weather the next two days!! 

Looking More Like Spring

Windy and chilly afternoon with rain/snow departing.  Some areas north/east of Indy picked up light snow accumulations.  With lingering clouds, expect steady temps in the 30s and 40s all afternoon.  

BIG improvements in the weather beginning tomorrow.  Tomorrow looks like a nearly 100% sunny day, with seasonable highs of 55-60.

Monday looks spectacular!  Partly sunny, gusty south winds, with highs soaring to 66-70 state-wide!  The day-time looks dry, but a shower chance arrives after sunset, with a cold front moving through associated with a low pressure system to our north.  This knocks our temperatures down for Tuesday, but that day still looks pretty nice with some sun and highs ranging from 50 north to 60 south.

That same boundary will get stuck over the area Wednesday through Thursday, providing the chance for showers and storms.  The set-up will also mean a big temperature gradient.  Highs could range from the 70's near the Ohio River to the 40's along the Michigan border.  An area of low pressure will track through the area Thursday night and Friday, providing continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.  

Rain totals could really add up over parts of the state late next week.  GFS model indicates widespread 1-3" of rainfall between Wednesday and Friday night.  I think things will begin to green up around here!

Looking towards next weekend and beyond, it looks like we may get stuck in a somewhat below normal temperature pattern, so unfortunately it doesn't look like true spring weather is ready to completely settle in yet.  The 8-14 day outlook from NOAA reflects this...

Here is the 7-day outlook. (from last night) With the large temperature gradient expected mid/late next week, keep in mind temps will be much cooler than the graphic shows for locations to the north, and even warmer south.  

(3/22) Tracking Cold, Snow, Then a Warm-Up!

We had a pretty large gradient in high temperatures today, with 40's over much of central/northern Indiana, while southern Indiana enjoyed a sunny, spring-like day with highs in the 50's.  

                  PROLONGED COLD SNAP

The cold air will take over for the day on Sunday, and this is the beginning of a several day cold snap that will last through Wednesday!!  4 straight days in a row of highs in the 30's (low 40's far south) is not an easy feat with a late March sun angle!  Lows will generally be in the upper teens to middle 20's, with the coldest air on Sunday and Tuesday nights.  The rounds of spring teases have caused some daffodils to bloom in the southern portion of the state, so it may not be a bad idea to keep them covered up every night.  

                     MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW

We need to keep an eye on a clipper system Monday night and Tuesday.  This does NOT appear to be a major deal, but at this time I would not rule out 1" of snow in spots out of this.  Convective snow showers look to stick around all day Tuesday, but the strong solar radiation will likely mean no accumulation during the day-time, unless the precipitation comes down heavy enough to overcome melting.  

                      WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK

Data continues to suggest strong warming Thursday and Friday of next week, as a low pressure system northwest of here draws in a strong southerly flow.  This also looks like an active period, with scattered showers and storms Thursday-Saturday, with the best chance on Friday.  The GFS model is indicating around 1" of rainfall during this period for much of the state.  Given the set-up, I would not rule out isolated severe thunderstorms as well.  This far out hard to speculate on how quick deep moisture and instability will work in.

Here is the 7-day QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from NOAA which includes the system late next week.  Right now they only have Indiana seeing .50-.75".