Saturday, March 22, 2014

(3/22) Tracking Cold, Snow, Then a Warm-Up!

We had a pretty large gradient in high temperatures today, with 40's over much of central/northern Indiana, while southern Indiana enjoyed a sunny, spring-like day with highs in the 50's.  

                  PROLONGED COLD SNAP

The cold air will take over for the day on Sunday, and this is the beginning of a several day cold snap that will last through Wednesday!!  4 straight days in a row of highs in the 30's (low 40's far south) is not an easy feat with a late March sun angle!  Lows will generally be in the upper teens to middle 20's, with the coldest air on Sunday and Tuesday nights.  The rounds of spring teases have caused some daffodils to bloom in the southern portion of the state, so it may not be a bad idea to keep them covered up every night.  

                     MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW

We need to keep an eye on a clipper system Monday night and Tuesday.  This does NOT appear to be a major deal, but at this time I would not rule out 1" of snow in spots out of this.  Convective snow showers look to stick around all day Tuesday, but the strong solar radiation will likely mean no accumulation during the day-time, unless the precipitation comes down heavy enough to overcome melting.  



                      WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK

Data continues to suggest strong warming Thursday and Friday of next week, as a low pressure system northwest of here draws in a strong southerly flow.  This also looks like an active period, with scattered showers and storms Thursday-Saturday, with the best chance on Friday.  The GFS model is indicating around 1" of rainfall during this period for much of the state.  Given the set-up, I would not rule out isolated severe thunderstorms as well.  This far out hard to speculate on how quick deep moisture and instability will work in.



Here is the 7-day QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from NOAA which includes the system late next week.  Right now they only have Indiana seeing .50-.75".  

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