Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Very Active Pattern Ahead

Good morning!  Happy first day of April.  What a spectacular day yesterday was!  At South Bend, it was the warmest day since October 12, 2013!  That was almost a half year ago!  Crazy!  Highs everywhere ranged from 65-70, and boy did it feel great!

Today is shaping up to be another winner of a day.  A weak cold front will stall out over southern Indiana.  This means central and northern Indiana will be a bit cooler than yesterday.  Highs will range widely from middle/upper 50's north to upper 60's near 70 south.  We should see a good deal of sunshine most of the day.  

ENJOY TODAY, because changes start to roll in tonight.  Showers will begin to push in after sunset, and this will kick off a very unsettled period of weather for the rest of the week.  It does not mean each day will be a total washout, but plenty of showers and thunderstorms expected from tomorrow through Friday, which will have a TON of moisture!  We also have a risk for some severe storms.  The first chance comes late tomorrow into Thursday for far southwest Indiana, then a more widespread risk for Thursday night into Friday.  Here are the risk maps from the Storm Prediction Center...



Right now damaging winds appear to be the main concern with the threats.  This will be something to watch closely over the next few days.  The thunderstorms look to move out Friday afternoon, but not before seeing very heavy rain totals.  Flooding is another big threat over the next few days, so if you live in a low lying area be aware!  The latest GFS puts the heaviest totals over the heart of central Indiana, indicating 3-4".  



We will finally have drier, yet much cooler air move in this weekend.  Right now both days look dry with some sunshine.  Saturday will be the chilliest, with highs only in the upper 40's to low 50's.  On Sunday, highs return to 55-60 statewide.  

I know most of you won't like this, but it looks like temperatures will be returning below normal for much of next week.  Should be no surprise considering the year we are having.  That said, it won't be anything brutal--just cooler than where we should be.  Here is the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center...

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