Friday, July 11, 2014

HUMID AND STORMY WEEKEND - BIG COOL-DOWN NEXT WEEK

Good evening!  What a perfect stretch of weather over the past several days!  Sun, low humidity, and pleasant temps.  

Our pattern is changing over the next few days.  We are going to get hotter and much more humid for the weekend.  With the uptick in humidity come thunderstorm chances.  Let's dive in..

The way it looks now, it appears a weakening thunderstorm complex will sweep across central and northern portions of the state tomorrow morning.  This will likely not impact far southern Indiana.  Here is the HRRR model for 9:00 Saturday morning, indicating showers and t'storms approaching western portions of central and northern Indiana...


Areas south of Bloomington and Columbus may completely miss out on this round tomorrow morning, but wouldn't completely rule it out.  This complex looks to exit the state tomorrow afternoon, and most of tomorrow afternoon and evening look dry and hot.  Isolated to perhaps widely scattered t'storms are possible, but most of us stay dry.  You WILL undoubtedly notice the uptick in the humidity.  Highs will get as hot as 90 in southern Indiana, mid to perhaps upper 80s central, and low 80s north.  Good day to hit up the swimming pools, just remember when thunder roars...go indoors!  Important to note that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined northern Indiana in a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow...

Much better chances of t'storms arrives late Saturday night, throughout the day Sunday into Sunday evening, as 1 of 2 cold fronts push through.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of Indiana outlined in a slight risk of severe storms for Sunday.  

A secondary cold front arrives Monday which will bring more chances for some scattered showers or storms, but coverage will be less than Sunday's.  

How much rain can be expected over the next three days???  Overall, it appears most of us have a good shot at some rain at some point this weekend.  However, some areas may struggle to get much more than a quarter of an inch while another location gets 3" under a heavy thunderstorm.  Rainfall patterns can vary a lot during this time of year.  Parts of southern Indiana are getting pretty dry, so let's hope we get some widespread, soaking rain.  The GFS model does give us some hope...


After that second front moves through Monday evening, drier and MUCH COOLER air will move in for Tuesday through the rest of the week thanks to a monster dip in the jet stream!  Here is the map for Tuesday morning.  With a low-pressure to our north/east and a high in the upper midwest, the circulation around those features translates to a strong northerly flow over our region.  

Such a set-up will translate to highs struggling to get out of the 60s north of I-70 on Tuesday, and some locations in the 40s by Wednesday morning.  That's right.....in the middle of July!!  Temperatures stay cool through Wednesday and Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s with isolated 40s.  We do warm it up again by next Friday into the following weekend, how warm we get is to be determined.  Bottom line, a RARE shot of fall takes hold for much of next week.  ENJOY IT!  

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