Arctic Blast Moving In - Winter Storm This Weekend?

Good evening.  Winter has returned in a big way over the past couple of days, and if you are looking for spring, you won't find it in the forecast anytime soon.  The pattern we have been in all winter refuses to let go.  If you think it is cold now, we have a stronger push of cold pushing in over the next few days which will be downright brutal.  This kind of stuff is crazy for late February.

We will have a streak of snow tonight move across southern Indiana.  I will keep a snow chance for areas south of I-70, with the best chance near the I-64 corridor from Evansville to Louisville.  A coating to 1" of snow could create slick roadways tomorrow morning.  Here is a snapshot of the HRRR model by 11pm this evening:

The next few days will be VERY COLD.  Highs in the teens, with some areas in northern Indiana not even getting out of the single digits thanks to snow cover on the ground.  Mornings will be dangerously cold, with below zero readings north, and single digits to low teens south.  The National Weather Service has issued a wind chill advisory for all areas north of Indianapolis for tomorrow morning, due to forecast wind chills of -15.  The good news is that lots of sunshine will be the rule with no snow threats.  At least we have one thing going for us.  :)  

We have a weak system that could bring light snow Friday night after sunset.  This system is looking weak, but 1" for most areas seems possible.

The main focus of the forecast will be a potential storm for the second half of the weekend into Monday.  We will have a huge temperature gradient over the Ohio Valley, thanks to a stationary front that will be stalling out.  Basically the southern U.S. will be very warm, the north will be very cold, and the Ohio Valley sits right in that boundary zone.  This set-up will spread precipitation through the region during the day Sunday and continuing into Monday.  This could be a big-time mess for Indiana, with significant amounts of snow and ice possible.  I want to quickly discuss what some of the models are showing below, because there is disagreement as is typically the case.  

The GFS (pictured below) paints a mess over Indiana.  It shows everything from a cold rain in far southern Indiana, ice in central Indiana, and heavy snow in far northern Indiana.  This model was farther south with everything yesterday.  

The European and Canadian models are taking the storm quite a ways farther south than the GFS.  I cannot post images of these models, but both bring heavy snow to central and southern Indiana, and keep any ice down in Kentucky.  Right now, I lean toward the Canadian/European models, but cannot discount the GFS solution either.  

At this point, the bottom line is that there is a potential winter storm setting up for the second half of the weekend into early next week.  The track and precipitation type is still very questionable at this time, and will be a few more days before I can get a good handle on any real details.  We will have to watch for the trends in model guidance, and see if we can come to a consensus a little bit.  With a potential winter storm in the forecast, I will post a blog each day to keep you all updated.  Until next time, God bless.