Monday, July 23, 2012

Record Hot Again - Timing Storm Chances

Whew, it was a SCORCHER of a day! 102 officially in Indy, tying the record high of 102 in 1936. Seems like the terms "more record heat", "drought" have been very common terms  all summer long! Today was the 8th time that Indy has hit 100+. Think about that for a second. There are only four other summers in the record books that had heat similar to this year. We have been going through weeks and weeks of this unprecedented historical heat! Plenty of heat will stick around through the middle of the week!

Now that we have covered the hot part of the weather, now let's talk about storm chances, and yes, we actually have some chances! How about a early morning 'wake up call' to high winds, lightning, and torrential rains. I think this will be a good bet for areas from Indianapolis and points north/eastward. Here is my latest map with the track of these storms tonight:
There is also another chance of severe weather tomorrow, extending farther south as well. 

I will go with a 30-40% storm coverage tomorrow, with highs in the range of 91-97. Storm chances go down to 20% Wednesday, as the mercury should hit 100 for the 9th time this summer.

Storm chances really ramp up Thursday, as a front and a surface low move into the state. Severe weather looks like a decent bet with this system, so stay tuned!

Some areas will get some decent rain amounts, but most of us will not get enough to be major "drought busters." Northern Indiana picked up widespread 1-3" rains last week, and those same areas could get similar amounts yet again this week. Here is the HPC 5-day rainfall map:

I came across an interesting graphic from The Weather Channel concerning the drought, and how quickly it developed between May 15-July 17. This really gives the idea of just how much rain we SHOULD get between May and now, but how little we got this year!

Keep an eye on radar before you head out in the morning, as scattered storms are in the forecast after 2am! Have a great night, thanks for stopping by.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Explanation On The Heat and Drought Affecting Indiana - Why It Won't Be Easy to Break!

Good evening.Talk about a scorcher today! Indy broke the record of 100 set in 1887! We hit 101 degrees today, and the humidity only made it feel hotter. I've heard a lot of people say, "What ever happened to that cool-down that was supposed to happen last week?" In this blog post, I am going to explain why our weather pattern is so hot and dry right now, and why it won't be easy to break.


What's up with this crazy weather pattern? No doubt about it, this is the hottest and driest summer so far in Indiana. Our pattern became so warm and dry going way back in March, when large areas of high pressure kept influencing our weather, bringing lots of sun and day after day of temperatures way above normal. The very similar pattern held true all spring. These large masses of high pressure cause unusual dry spells of weather throughout the spring, causing a drought to develop over the area in late May.


In June, the dry weather continued, as our ground became drier and drier as the weeks went on, with basically no rainfall in many areas for much of June. This created a weather pattern that was more typical of a desert. Several "dry fronts" swept in for the first half of June, ushering in extremely dry air from the north, and the dry ground only helped to make the humidity even lower. This allowed for big temperature swings across the area, some cases as much as a 30 degree jump from morning to afternoon temperatures. A massive a.k.a "DEATH RIDGE" parked itself over the central plains & rockies during the second half of June, which caused all the wildfires to really get out of control in Colorado. This ridge began it's move farther east after the 25th, bringing some of the hottest weather to ever strike the state since the Dust Bowl days! Indy ended the month with consecutive days in the 100's. That same ridge leads us to where we are now. The dry ground has only allowed the temperatures to get hotter, because a dry ground heats up fast, which is why drought usually has scorching hot weather to go along with it. Since then, our weather has been dominated by temps between 95-101 degrees, day after day after day. While there have been pop-up storms during the afternoons, widespread rains have continued to be absent from the state.


Why this pattern will be hard to break: You may have heard the saying "drought begets drought." This phrase is very true, because hot and dry weather seem to go hand in hand. When you have a lot of moisture in the air, the atmosphere has to get rid of its moisture before heating up. This helps keep temperatures reasonable. Without any moisture, there is nothing to stop temperatures from rising quickly, along with few clouds to slow a warm-up. As a result, you get more days with those highs in the mid 90's to near 100.


The heat causes very fast evaporation of what little moisture is around, and helps the heat to intensify. So in turn, the two basically feed off each other. The only hopes at this point would be a big change in the Pacific temperature pattern to force systems into the midwest. There have been signs of relief in the next couple weeks, but so far, the rain department has remained rather spotty. The deficit will take months to make up. 


We have a 30-50% chance of scattered storms tomorrow through Friday. Much like today, they will be scattered, so some areas may stay dry. On another note, I am forecasting another day of triple digits tomorrow!



Thanks for reading, have a great night!

Monday, July 16, 2012

MORE HEAT, SMALL STORM CHANCES!

Well, so much for forecasting rain this weekend! Most areas missed out AGAIN, with only a few lucky ones. While much of the area missed out on the rain, a few did luck out. Parts of southern Indiana picked up a half-inch or so of rain yesterday, along with isolated pockets of heavy rain in north-central Indiana. Here is a map of today's accumulated rainfall. Notice how isolated the rain was!
A ridge of high pressure will build in over the next few days, bringing in more sunshine, and scorching temps surging close to 100 (again)! This summer's temperatures have been nothing short of incredible. It's not often that you go through weeks and weeks of temps in the 90's & 100's! The bone dry conditions is only helping bring these hot temps! We hit 95 today under high humidity, I think we will be in the range of 94-98 tomorrow, then 97-101 on Tuesday. Parts of southern Indiana may not get quite as hot where there is a slightly better chance of a few pop-up storms, but the heat will be the MAIN story. With the ridge positioned so far north, 100 degree heat could very close to the Canadian border this week!

A front will move in Wednesday/Thursday, bringing with it the next best chance of rain. Here is the GFS during this time-frame, likely WAY overdone...

That front may get hung-up somewhere near the Ohio River for the end of the week and weekend, so if that is the case, we could have at least a chance of storms Friday through next weekend, but southern Indiana would be most likely to get these storms.

Stay tuned for updates on the chance of mid-week storms. Hopefully we will get some rain. *Saying it very optimistically*

On another note, we will be adding plenty more 90+ days to the summer through the coming week. We are already WAY above average for the ENTIRE summer, and it's only mid-July. I believe the most ever was 58 days, (forget when that was set). We have 29 so far, (average is 18 for the whole summer). The way it's going, this could be the hottest summer ever for Indy. 2012 is already the warmest year EVER so far in Indiana. 

Thanks for stopping by the blog. You know the drill by now, stay cool!

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Some areas getting soaked, other areas not so lucky!

Tracking a band of moderate rain across southern Indiana this afternoon. Other areas...not so lucky! For some reason, it seems like central Indiana can't buy a drop. This band is moving north, BUT.. it is weakening, and will continue to fall apart during the evening.



We have another threat of scattered storms tomorrow, but 
many areas in central and northern Indiana will once again be left DRY. Areas that DO get the rain, could get a good soaking. The heat is back early next week, with highs of 95-100 across central and northern Indiana. Southern Indiana should remain a bit cooler, with the chance of a couple storms each day. Most areas will remain dry.


A front will move in Wednesday/Thursday, but the drought will self-perpetuate, so I don't look for widespread rains, just the same ol' pattern, with a few lucky ones, with most areas missing out. I think parts of the area are going to get upgraded to the worst category of drought when the next update comes out this week.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

RAIN ON THE WAY?

Good evening! Thanks for stopping by the blog. The intense heat has backed off over the past few days, but the dry ground is still helping warm our temperatures up in the 90's each afternoon.

US Drought Monitor, July 3, 2012First, let's talk about the drought. It just continues to get worse, and it's sad to see all the crops dying so early! This is the driest stretch to hit Indiana in 104 years!! The drought is even causing some trees to shed and lose their leaves! If you haven't heard, the mayor has banned all lawn watering in Indy. It's no wonder considering how deep we have gotten into the drought! Check out the latest drought monitor, as the area is under a severe to extreme drought, and as you will notice on the map, we are not alone!

Beneficial Rain Friday through early next week?  The same front that teased us on Sunday will move back north again, and will have a second chance to make us happy.

The models keep hinting that there will be a band, or "blob" of heavy rain moving along a vort max from Nashville, TN almost due north to Indiana. After this wave passes by on Friday, there will be more thunderstorms off and on through early next week. The weekend does not look like a total washout, but there will be showers/storms to dodge from time to time. Here are the totals I am expecting by Monday evening....


For a comparison, here is the HPC's thinking on the rain totals through Monday...

The two maps are similar, but I tended to be a little more conservative than HPC, given the dry conditions likely to affect the totals. However, I would not rule out a 3" total or two in southern Indiana, where heavy rains set-up.

Bottom Line: It looks like a nice wave of heavy downpours/thunder Friday, then off/on for the weekend through early next week. The weekend will not be a washout, but the radar will be a great tool this weekend! Even if rain comes during a weekend, I don't think anyone would mind the rain at this point! While this won't end our drought, this could provide a dent in the drought across the area, especially across the southern half of Indiana. 

These rainfall amounts still need to be tweaked over the next 24 hours, and I will have another update out tomorrow. Have a great night, and do a rain dance!

Friday, July 6, 2012

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER NEW RECORD HIGH!



Here we go again! We have already hit 96 degrees, and we will easily top out at 105 degrees today. The old record in Indianapolis is 99! The area will remain under the excessive heat warning through tomorrow evening.

The air quality is also down today. Much of the area is in the "unhealthy for sensitive groups" but parts of southern Indiana have been upgraded to the "unhealthy" category. This could make it difficult to be outside for those with health issues, such as asthma.
AQI Forecast - http://www.epa.gov/airnow/today/forecast_aqi_20120706_mi_in_oh.jpg

Here's your 7 day forecast, much cooler weather FINALLY returning next week!

Thursday, July 5, 2012

IT'S SO HOT....THAT MAILBOXES ARE MELTING!!

You think I'm kidding? Check out these pictures of plastic mailboxes not able to stand the heat...
Screen shot 2012-07-02 at 7.05.18 PMScreen shot 2012-07-02 at 7.00.55 PMScreen shot 2012-07-02 at 7.01.21 PM


The heat wave has now gone postal. The heat continues through Saturday. Highs the next couple days will be around 105 degrees in Indianapolis, smashing more record highs! This could potentially be the hottest stretch of weather to EVER hit the state since records began being kept. Just incredible. 

MUCH COOLER and tolerable temperatures return starting Sunday, along with a chance of showers/storms Sunday into Monday.

The drought continues to be the other big story. Much of Indiana is either in severe or extreme drought conditions. 
Photo: #inwx..Farmers already cutting down their crops due to the severe drought and heat...mark my words people you will likely never see heat like this again...were shattering 70-100 year old records! Key long range indicators tell me the heat and dry weather is no where near over...M.

A couple farmers are ALREADY cutting down the corn due to the severe drought causing devastating damage to the crops. This picture was snapped by Bam Chase Team.

Here is your 7-day forecast:




Tuesday, July 3, 2012

INTENSE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES!


Good morning. Thanks for choosing my blog for your weather source! No doubt about it, we have seen incredible heat for awhile now, and it's not ending anytime soon! For most areas, we have to go all the way back to 1936 as the last time we had a heat wave this intense. Highs today through Saturday will be near 100 degrees each day. The heat indices could be as high as 105 each day. 


ANY STORM CHANCES? We do have about a 20% chance of scattered storms this afternoon. Similar to the past several days, most areas will continue to stay dry. Areas across northern Indiana could see a couple severe storms, with the chance of damaging winds and hail in the stronger storms. Looking ahead at the rest of the week, storm chances look very low. about a 10% chance tomorrow through Saturday.


4TH OF JULY: If you have plans to head out to the 4th of July fireworks in downtown Indy tomorrow, be prepared for the heat! Highs tomorrow will top out at 100°, with about a 10-20% chance of a pop-up storm through sunset. The heat will hold on for the evening. Temps will remain in the 90's through 9pm, then drop in the middle 80's by 10-11pm.


If you're looking for a cool-down, we may be looking at an end to the heat wave next week, with increased storm chances Sunday on, with temperatures possibly dropping into the upper 80's by the middle of next week, but I say that very cautiously! 


Keep staying cool. Have a great day.