The snow showers out there today will not amount to much, as the bigger story is the cold weather. We clear out tonight, with temperatures in the lower teens tomorrow morning! ONLY 20's for highs tomorrow, which is way below the average high in the 40's. At least we should see sunshine, and plenty of it.
The main point of this blog is about the stuff coming in Thursday night. Let's go over a couple computer models and what they are showing, then I will explain my thoughts.
GFS -
Here is a look at the snowfall accumulation from the same model:
If that model comes to fruition, that would mean snow and freezing rain for Indy, with more snow than ice north. For southern Indiana, this model indicates freezing rain being the big threat before changing to ran towards morning.
If that model comes to fruition, that would mean snow and freezing rain for Indy, with more snow than ice north. For southern Indiana, this model indicates freezing rain being the big threat before changing to ran towards morning.
NAM -
Here is what the same model shows for snowfall accumulations:
Obviously this model is warmer than the GFS. This model indicates mainly rain for southern Indiana, with ice the main threat in central Indiana, with snow/sleet/ice mixed for northern Indiana.
MY THOUGHTS: I think it's safe to say the NAM model looks just too warm for this event. Arctic air is in place ahead of this event, and I just don't see enough warming that southern Indiana misses out on the ice. I think ALL of Indiana will get different forms of wintry precipitation. The GFS model looks like the way to go, but I think that that model still may be a bit too warm. Models tend to overdue warm air in these set-ups. Here is my current thinking:
Central Indiana: Starts as snow, with a quick 1-2" possible. As warm air overrides the surface, snow changes over to sleet and freezing rain. A tenth or a little more of ice would be possible on top of the snow.
Southern Indiana: Starts as a wintry mix, then a period of plain freezing rain, before switching to all rain during the night. Ice accumulations of .10" or a bit more possible before the switch to rain late in the night.
Northern Indiana: SNOW is the main precipitation type. Areas near Kokomo, Lafayette, Muncie, Peru will probably switch to freezing rain and sleet by Friday morning as the warmer air tries to build in. Anywhere from 1-3" seems likely in this area
BOTTOM LINE: No matter what, we aren't talking high precipitation amounts, but this will cause MAJOR travel headaches. If you have travel plans during this time, stay up to date to the forecast. If the current forecast holds, I would see winter weather advisories and other winter headlines coming out ahead of this system.
Obviously this model is warmer than the GFS. This model indicates mainly rain for southern Indiana, with ice the main threat in central Indiana, with snow/sleet/ice mixed for northern Indiana.
MY THOUGHTS: I think it's safe to say the NAM model looks just too warm for this event. Arctic air is in place ahead of this event, and I just don't see enough warming that southern Indiana misses out on the ice. I think ALL of Indiana will get different forms of wintry precipitation. The GFS model looks like the way to go, but I think that that model still may be a bit too warm. Models tend to overdue warm air in these set-ups. Here is my current thinking:
Central Indiana: Starts as snow, with a quick 1-2" possible. As warm air overrides the surface, snow changes over to sleet and freezing rain. A tenth or a little more of ice would be possible on top of the snow.
Southern Indiana: Starts as a wintry mix, then a period of plain freezing rain, before switching to all rain during the night. Ice accumulations of .10" or a bit more possible before the switch to rain late in the night.
Northern Indiana: SNOW is the main precipitation type. Areas near Kokomo, Lafayette, Muncie, Peru will probably switch to freezing rain and sleet by Friday morning as the warmer air tries to build in. Anywhere from 1-3" seems likely in this area
BOTTOM LINE: No matter what, we aren't talking high precipitation amounts, but this will cause MAJOR travel headaches. If you have travel plans during this time, stay up to date to the forecast. If the current forecast holds, I would see winter weather advisories and other winter headlines coming out ahead of this system.
No comments:
Post a Comment