Thanks for stopping by my new blog! Wow, what a cold start to spring to say the least. Indy dropped to 16 this morning, with “feel-like” readings in the single digits. That would be considered very cold and below average in January, yet alone in late March! I would do almost anything right now to forecast a huge warm-up, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon. Yes we do warm in the 40′s and perhaps 50′s for our southern areas Saturday, but that’s only a temporary warm-up and still is below normal – so that doesn’t count!
A storm system is expected to arrive on Sunday, and this one has potential to bring heavy snow to parts of Indiana and the Ohio Valley. While the models are slowly getting into better agreement, the track is still not set in stone by any means.
The WPC puts out snowfall risk maps 3 days in advance, and shows the probabilities for at least 4″, 8″, and 12″. Here are these probability maps…
These maps are likely to have some changes to them over the next couple of days. Those could shift farther north or south depending on where the TRACK of the system is.
Now let’s look over a few models and what they are showing. Before I show the snowfall potential from the models, please remember that these models do not take into account the warmer surface temps and strong radiation this time of year due to higher sun angle. Since it looks like quite a bit of the snow will fall while it’s daylight, keep those factors in mind!
GFS (shown below) has remained more consistent today on a farther south trend. The latest run of this model has several inches of snow from Indy southward, with a sharp cut-off to the north.
NAM (shown below) is almost identical to GFS on the track, but is heavier on amounts.
The Canadian & European models (not shown) are farther north with the track putting central and northern Indiana in the bullseye for snow, with much less for southern parts of the state. That can’t be ignored, but I think we are in a pattern that should favor the farther south track that the GFS & NAM are showing.
I decided to post my “early” thoughts on POTENTIAL snow accumulations on Sunday.(below) I cannot stress enough how much of a key factor the TRACK of the storm is. Even a slight shift in the track will ultimately change how much snow falls in your backyard.
Model runs tomorrow afternoon/evening should get the first good weather balloon sampling of the storm, which means the models should begin to all come to a consensus and I should be able to give better details on how much snow will fall in your area. Thanks for reading and following my weather updates, have a great night!
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