POLAR PLUNGE IS ALMOST HERE - SNOW CHANCES TOO!

I hope everyone was able to enjoy the awesome weather we had out there today. Temps in the 50's and a brilliant blue sky is hard to come by in January. The bad part is.. the warmer it felt today, the colder it will feel over the next week. 

Check out the current temperature map across the country. Notice the cold air has reached south of the Canada, and is continuing it's trip to the Hoosier state. 

We will begin to feel the cold air later tonight/tomorrow, with a cold front moving through. Temperatures from the morning low to afternoon high tomorrow will be similar, despite some sun, due to brisk northwest winds driving in the colder air. Temperatures will be in the upper 20's and low 30's. 

Arctic air (sub-zero lows)? Get ready for a visit from the arctic Monday and Tuesday, which is a guest that never showed up last year. Highs for Monday will be a struggle to even reach 20, and all areas should stay in the teens Tuesday. Those are high temperatures! Monday night looks to be the coldest night with low temperatures dropping down between -3 to 3 above if we can get the skies to clear which I think will happen. Lows Tuesday night will again drop to single digits. Get ready for your furnace to work in overdrive!!

How about snow chances? There has been quite a bit of debate about whether we will get any snow with the bitter cold. The chances of snow are never huge locally when the air gets so cold, because the colder it gets, the drier the air gets as well. However, this is a prime set-up for lake-effect snow for northern Indiana. Some spots up there could even get a few inches with the lake-effect bands. Here in central and southern Indiana, while flurries locally are possible at any time Monday and Tuesday, it appears a weak clipper system moving through Tuesday night will bring the best chance of getting any snow with the arctic air. I don't see anything but a dusting with that for now. 

The forecast towards the end of next week looks very interesting and quite challenging to say the least. The models have been showing a system moving through the region during the Thursday/Friday, but the track and how much we warm up remain the big questions. One thing I have learned about forecasting, is that the computer models like to get rid of arctic air way faster than usually is the case. In these set-ups, it is best to use common sense, and watch the model trends. The European model shows no warm-up, keeps the cold air intact, and tracking the storm system south of us, bringing several inches of snow to the state. 

The GFS does not agree with the Euro right now, and wants to warm us up, and track the system to the lakes. This set-up would mean a rain to snow situation, with most of the accumulating snow staying in northern Indiana and Michigan.

So now you ask, which model is right? Well in this case, I have to use common sense forecasting and go by what scenario seems more realistic to the weather pattern. Right now the colder/snowy Euro solution seems to fit the pattern much better, as the GFS showing a system tracking off to our north right after a shot of bitter cold air just doesn't make sense. So right now, I think the chances of snow and little or no warm-up for the next week is likely. The trends in the models over the next few days will be interesting, but I feel like the GFS should trend colder towards the Euro solution as we get closer. Expect at least some changes so continue to check back! Thanks for reading. 

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Alabama Winter Storm - Brief Weekend Warm-Up Before Polar Plunge Early Next Week!

Sorry about not posting any blogs in a while. I've been busy with school, and my WiFi at home has not been working. Snow continues to fall in unusual places, in the DEEP SOUTH! Winter storm warnings continue for parts of Mississippi, Alabama, all the way up to the mid-Atlantic. Check out this picture from the campus at University of Alabama..

I found this picture on Facebook implying to how folks in the south are dealing with the snow. Well actually, it's pretty much implies for around here, too. ;)

If your a snow-lover here in Indiana, the chances of getting snow anytime soon is quite small. Yes some flurries in the extended forecast, but by no means a snowstorm.

A mini warm-up is on the way for the next couple days, before the bottom falls out. Highs tomorrow and Saturday should be above average, in the 40's. Southern Indiana has a shot at 50-53 for Saturday afternoon with strong WAA (warm air advection)

The colder air begins to come down for Sunday, with high temperatures for Sunday 10-20 degrees colder than Saturday.

The REAL COLD STUFF arrives Monday and Tuesday. A true arctic air mass will come in from Canada, with high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday in the teens for many areas, and low temps in the single digits! Watch the time-frame from Monday through Tuesday for a little system to bring some LIGHT snow action to the area. Check out the ECMWF for next Tuesday, just look at that cold air over our area! BRRR is right!

However, this is not a sustained bitter cold pattern. Temperatures could soar above freezing by the end of the week! 

Thanks for reading! Have a great rest of your day. God bless.

60's on the way - flooding this weekend?

WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...

Can you find the warm front? :) Check out the latest temperature map. That's right! 60's in southwest Indiana, and 30's to the northeast. That is one big temperature spread.

Temperatures are only going up from here. Temperatures will be in the 50's area-wide by tomorrow morning. Highs tomorrow hit the 60's!

HOW ABOUT RAIN CHANCES?

A round of very intense rainfall looks to move through between 3-7am across the state. Areas south of I-70 may see a couple thunderstorms as well. However, no severe weather likely. Up to 1" of rain area wide possible from now through tomorrow morning.

Friday afternoon looks GREAT! We we should see some breaks in the clouds, (ESP SOUTH AND WEST OF INDY) with breezy conditions and highs warming in the 60's! It's been a while since we have seen temps that warm, and since it has been so cold lately, it will feel more like 70's for sure. 

WEEKEND RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE...

Saturday looks to start dry, but it won't end that way! The next system will work in from the south by Saturday afternoon/evening. Central and northern Indiana may stay dry until late afternoon, with the rain first arriving in southern Indiana. With the warm southerly flow, highs will once again warm in the 60's. 

Widespread heavy rains are a good bet overnight Saturday through Sunday. This system will bring 2" or more of rain potentially, with the total between now and Sunday night of 2-5" of rain, with up to 6" in parts of southern Indiana. You add that to the already soggy ground from nearly a foot of melted snow, flooding could be a major issue for some areas, especially those lowland areas, and those near rivers/creeks. The map shown below is the HPC rainfall forecast between now and early next week..

If you live in a flood-proned area, I think it would be a good idea to get some sandbags. Better safe than sorry for sure! 

The weather will turn much colder again next week, with a sneaky system that will need watched to bring a round of wintry weather to parts of the Ohio Valley early next week. 

Thanks for reading the blog. Have a great rest of the evening. 

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Warm Temps and Heavy Rains On The Way

HUGE WARM-UP STILL ON THE WAY...

I put together the GFS temperature maps for the next several days, you can see the progression of the warm-up....

I think the temperature forecast is tricky for the next couple days considering the snow still on the ground, but I think we should still manage to reach the 40's for highs in many areas tomorrow and Wednesday. By Thursday, parts of southern Indiana reach the 50's, with central and north in the 40's. Temps reach the 50's and 60's Friday and Saturday!!!

RAIN CHANCES/FLOODING POTENTIAL...

Dry weather is the rule through Wednesday, then it's a WET forecast! Widespread rains and will work south to north across the state throughout the day Thursday into Thursday night. With this system alone up to 1" of rain is possible. This is the HPC rainfall potential through Friday.

Other than a spotty shower, much of Friday and early Saturday will be all about the warmth!! Our next system arrives Saturday during the day right into Sunday. This system will track toward the Lakes, with the warmth rain, and thunder ahead of it, then a sharp drop in temperatures later Sunday, as much colder air rushes in behind the system. With that system 1-2" of rain will be possible as well. With all that said including Thursday's storm system, check out how much water could accumulate between now and then...

That's a widespread 2-3" of rainfall. I certainly think there will be higher totals closer to the Ohio River, with the already melting snow pack plus the heavy rain, flood prone areas need to keep a close eye on future forecasts. Thanks for reading!

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Wintry Weather For Sunday - Warmer Next Week

Good evening! Hope everyone has had a great Saturday. Before I get on to the weather, I want to say thanks for all the kind words and prayers for my sister, Brittany. They mean more than I could ever tell you or show you. We are faced with very tough decisions that need made, and need continued prayers for her health, and wisdom to go in the right direction. 

A day that started with sunshine quickly turned cloudy, and some areas saw scattered showers and snow move through. There is still a risk of spotty mixed precipitation, but more than likely there will be no travel problems out there. 

Sunday isn't looking like a very nice weather day out there. There will be very scattered light mixed precipitation, with temperatures holding steady in the low 30's, perhaps dropping into the 20's in some areas late in the day. A gusty west wind will make it feel much colder. A good day to stay inside and watch the Colts. By the way if your wondering about the weather in Baltimore for the game, the weather looks dry with temperatures in the 40's during the game.

We have some great weather moving in for the beginning of the week, with sunshine returning, and a warm-up. We start off Monday morning in the teens for many areas, but sunshine and a southwest wind will boost those temps in the 30's, with some low 40's for southern parts of the state. Tuesday looks to add several degrees on to Monday's high.

A storm system looks to impact the area late Wednesday through Thursday, but it will be warm enough for a plain rain event. Temperatures will soar well-above normal.

It looks like another system could bring rain to the state next Saturday. Looking at temperatures, by next Saturday much of the state could be looking at high temperatures in the 50's, 60 for southern Indiana is not out of the question. ENJOY THE WARMTH, the cold weather looks to come back in full force for the second half of the month. I think the end of the month could offer up record cold for our area. At first I think the arctic air will get stuck to our west, thanks to the ridge in the southeast. In time, that ridge should break-down and drive that arctic air into the Ohio Valley for the latter part of January. 

Sorry I have no images for this post. I know reading plain ol' text alone can be quite boring! :) If your still reading this thanks for stopping by my weather blog. Have a great rest of the weekend, God bless.

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A few flurries this weekend - warmer next week

Good afternoon. After a very active and snowy period last week, (15" of snow in 6 days) mother nature has finally given us a break, and in fact, there really hasn't been much happening weather-wise this week, except cold temperatures. The morning lows have dropped near 0 in some areas over the past several mornings, thanks to clear skies and snow on the ground.

Out of all places getting a winter storm in the U.S., it is southwest Texas today! Some of those areas could pick up 8" of snow. I'm sure snow-lovers in Chicago are shaking their heads right about now, because Chicago hasn't even received their first inch of snow yet this season. 

For us, the only system of note is a very weak system passing over-head later Saturday into Sunday. Light snow showers or basically flurries are possible with this, but no accumulation out of this. Not even enough to cause any travel issues the way it looks at this time. Below is a look at the GFS for this time-frame, and it is showing basically light flurries passing by.

Temperatures will run close to the freezing mark this weekend, but we will warm way above freezing as we head into next week. It looks like we may hit the 40's by Tuesday, and the 40's may continue for much of the second half of next week!

The milder pattern doesn't look to last too long. I think a colder and stormier pattern should return by mid-month. The image below is the European model 240 hours out, showing colder air sweeping in from the west by the 13th.

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