Check out the current temperature map across the country. Notice the cold air has reached south of the Canada, and is continuing it's trip to the Hoosier state.
We will begin to feel the cold air later tonight/tomorrow, with a cold front moving through. Temperatures from the morning low to afternoon high tomorrow will be similar, despite some sun, due to brisk northwest winds driving in the colder air. Temperatures will be in the upper 20's and low 30's.
Arctic air (sub-zero lows)? Get ready for a visit from the arctic Monday and Tuesday, which is a guest that never showed up last year. Highs for Monday will be a struggle to even reach 20, and all areas should stay in the teens Tuesday. Those are high temperatures! Monday night looks to be the coldest night with low temperatures dropping down between -3 to 3 above if we can get the skies to clear which I think will happen. Lows Tuesday night will again drop to single digits. Get ready for your furnace to work in overdrive!!
How about snow chances? There has been quite a bit of debate about whether we will get any snow with the bitter cold. The chances of snow are never huge locally when the air gets so cold, because the colder it gets, the drier the air gets as well. However, this is a prime set-up for lake-effect snow for northern Indiana. Some spots up there could even get a few inches with the lake-effect bands. Here in central and southern Indiana, while flurries locally are possible at any time Monday and Tuesday, it appears a weak clipper system moving through Tuesday night will bring the best chance of getting any snow with the arctic air. I don't see anything but a dusting with that for now.
The forecast towards the end of next week looks very interesting and quite challenging to say the least. The models have been showing a system moving through the region during the Thursday/Friday, but the track and how much we warm up remain the big questions. One thing I have learned about forecasting, is that the computer models like to get rid of arctic air way faster than usually is the case. In these set-ups, it is best to use common sense, and watch the model trends. The European model shows no warm-up, keeps the cold air intact, and tracking the storm system south of us, bringing several inches of snow to the state.
The GFS does not agree with the Euro right now, and wants to warm us up, and track the system to the lakes. This set-up would mean a rain to snow situation, with most of the accumulating snow staying in northern Indiana and Michigan.
So now you ask, which model is right? Well in this case, I have to use common sense forecasting and go by what scenario seems more realistic to the weather pattern. Right now the colder/snowy Euro solution seems to fit the pattern much better, as the GFS showing a system tracking off to our north right after a shot of bitter cold air just doesn't make sense. So right now, I think the chances of snow and little or no warm-up for the next week is likely. The trends in the models over the next few days will be interesting, but I feel like the GFS should trend colder towards the Euro solution as we get closer. Expect at least some changes so continue to check back! Thanks for reading.
We will begin to feel the cold air later tonight/tomorrow, with a cold front moving through. Temperatures from the morning low to afternoon high tomorrow will be similar, despite some sun, due to brisk northwest winds driving in the colder air. Temperatures will be in the upper 20's and low 30's.
Arctic air (sub-zero lows)? Get ready for a visit from the arctic Monday and Tuesday, which is a guest that never showed up last year. Highs for Monday will be a struggle to even reach 20, and all areas should stay in the teens Tuesday. Those are high temperatures! Monday night looks to be the coldest night with low temperatures dropping down between -3 to 3 above if we can get the skies to clear which I think will happen. Lows Tuesday night will again drop to single digits. Get ready for your furnace to work in overdrive!!
How about snow chances? There has been quite a bit of debate about whether we will get any snow with the bitter cold. The chances of snow are never huge locally when the air gets so cold, because the colder it gets, the drier the air gets as well. However, this is a prime set-up for lake-effect snow for northern Indiana. Some spots up there could even get a few inches with the lake-effect bands. Here in central and southern Indiana, while flurries locally are possible at any time Monday and Tuesday, it appears a weak clipper system moving through Tuesday night will bring the best chance of getting any snow with the arctic air. I don't see anything but a dusting with that for now.
The forecast towards the end of next week looks very interesting and quite challenging to say the least. The models have been showing a system moving through the region during the Thursday/Friday, but the track and how much we warm up remain the big questions. One thing I have learned about forecasting, is that the computer models like to get rid of arctic air way faster than usually is the case. In these set-ups, it is best to use common sense, and watch the model trends. The European model shows no warm-up, keeps the cold air intact, and tracking the storm system south of us, bringing several inches of snow to the state.
The GFS does not agree with the Euro right now, and wants to warm us up, and track the system to the lakes. This set-up would mean a rain to snow situation, with most of the accumulating snow staying in northern Indiana and Michigan.
So now you ask, which model is right? Well in this case, I have to use common sense forecasting and go by what scenario seems more realistic to the weather pattern. Right now the colder/snowy Euro solution seems to fit the pattern much better, as the GFS showing a system tracking off to our north right after a shot of bitter cold air just doesn't make sense. So right now, I think the chances of snow and little or no warm-up for the next week is likely. The trends in the models over the next few days will be interesting, but I feel like the GFS should trend colder towards the Euro solution as we get closer. Expect at least some changes so continue to check back! Thanks for reading.
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