Latest On Friday's Snow Potential

I have been talking about a storm system late this week for several days now. A couple of days ago, it looked as if this could become a winter storm for the area. The models have backed off that idea since yesterday, and it now looks like light snow will be possible.

There are two systems passing through on Friday. One to the north, and one to the south. They look to remain separate, so in turn, this is not a big deal for us, but not a no show.

Model Analysis:
Let's start with the GFS, or American model. It is doing a good job with the system, in my opinion. It shows precipitation breaking out near daybreak Friday, then steady light snow lasting through early afternoon. The GFS for noon Friday actually shows widespread light to moderate snow falling over the state. 

Here is what the model shows for snow accumulations:

Next, let's look at the NAM. Here is what the model shows for noon Friday.

There is a pretty big difference between the GFS and NAM. The NAM keeps the two systems separate like all the other models, but it wants to keep much of central Indiana totally dry. The model spits out light accumulations for northern and southern Indiana, and central Indiana right in between the two systems staying dry. 

The European model paints a general inch of snow across the entire state.

My thoughts: When forecasting, it is important to use common sense, notice trends such as what weather model(s) have been more reliable as of late, along with pattern recognition. The GFS has actually done a pretty good job here recently, and the European always does a good job. So based on those two models, it looks plausible that light snow accumulations on the order of 1-2" looks likely for Friday. The NAM model is the outlier for my forecast. *Just because we are talking light accumulations, doesn't mean travel won't be greatly impacted. With arctic air still in place, surface temperatures are very cold, and all snow that falls will stick. I think slick roads are likely when the snow hits Friday, even if it's just light flurries coming down at times. *


Timing: Snow flurries look to begin during the pre-dawn hours of Friday, 4-7 am, then several hours of steady, light snow look likely from 8am-1pm. This will be a very fast moving system. 


Thanks for reading, have a great night. God bless! 

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