Accumulating Snow This Weekend!

B.O.T.S everyone!! (Bring On The Snow) After a snowy Thursday, the arctic air has arrived, and dangerous wind chills have accompanied it. 

So let's get to the forecast. We are tracking a couple of "clipper" systems this weekend, and accumulating snows are likely. The NWS office out of Louisville has issued a Winter Weather Advisory. (counties in blue) I think more counties across central/northern Indiana should be added to the advisory. When/if they issue more advisories, I will update via Facebook/Twitter.

TIMING: It appears we are dealing with two rounds of snow. One round later tonight through mid-day Saturday, and round two hits Saturday night into early Sunday.

IMPACTS: Roads are likely to be slick when the snow falls, but I don't think people need to cancel their plans completely. There will be dry time especially tomorrow afternoon and evening before round #2 moves in. Plus, INDOT crews usually do a great job keeping the roads clean, am I right!? :) 

TOTALS: When all is said and done, here is what I expect for snowfall totals.

For those in central and northern Indiana that missed out on the snow yesterday, you will not be left out. 

**This forecast still has some uncertainty as clipper systems are tricky to forecast. Changes to the forecast are still possible between now and tomorrow.**

Thanks for stopping by the blog. Enjoy the rest of your day.

HEAVY SNOW BURST WITH ARCTIC AIR

SNOW BURSTS & SLICK ROADS... What a way to return to winter after a spring-like first half of the week! The set-up today is very similar to a summer day. Snow bursts and squalls developed under the unstable atmosphere today, and peeks of sun from time to time fueled these heavy bands that produced white-out conditions in spots this afternoon and evening. Some areas saw a few flakes, while other spots receive an inch or more. A clipper system helped enhance the snowfall south of I-70 and all across southern Indiana this evening. Snow is still falling pretty hard in parts of extreme southern Indiana. The counties in blue across southern Indiana are under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 2am. Many of these counties should end up between 1-2" of snow. Bottom line, do not travel unless it is necessary.

The snow showers continue off/on until late tonight, then mainly dry by the morning commute. However, the roads will likely be SLICK. Allow yourself extra time to reach your destination. Not only that, dangerously cold as well. Temps tomorrow morning will be in the single digits, with wind chills BELOW ZERO. Plenty of school delays already coming in for tomorrow morning. 

BIGGER SNOWS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... Based on the latest data, some areas will be dealing with decent snow amounts this weekend. Several disturbances bring snow chances off and on Saturday through Sunday. The biggest hit of snowfall looks to be late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon, then off/on snow showers lasting through Sunday. 

HOW MUCH? Here is my early GUESS on snow potential..

That is still subject to change, so keep it here. I will have another blog update later tomorrow with the latest on the weekend snow potential.

Thanks for stopping by! Have a great night. 

Weather Gone Crazy!

To say this is one busy forecast is an understatement. Mother nature is very moody, so expect wild and drastic changes in the weather through the next several days. Whatever weather floats your boat, we will have it at some point this week. 

RECORD WARMTH & SEVERE STORMS... Here are the latest severe weather maps from the SPC.

The severe risk comes for late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning, when a powerful line of storms pushes through the state. As mentioned yesterday, the winds aloft are incredibly strong, and it's possible for the strongest storms to tap into these winds and produce damaging winds. 

This is not a widespread severe weather outbreak, but isolated severe storms producing damaging winds are a real possibility. I have to mention that an isolated tornado isn't out of the question either. The timing of these storms moving across the state from west to east looks to be from 1-5am. 

On another note, a flood watch is in effect for all of central Indiana, with the potential for 1-3" of rain. Much of this falls tomorrow night, so keep this in mind. The Wednesday morning commute to work could be a mess with flooding and heavy rains/storms still in the area at that time.

I can't forget to mention the warmth for tomorrow! I think southern Indiana has a real chance to hit 70, especially if the sun comes out during the afternoon. I think central/northern Indiana stays stuck in the clouds, rain longer through the day, but breaks in the rain during the afternoon. Highs across the rest of Indiana reach the low/middle 60's! 

MUCH COLDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... Temperatures will begin to tumble during the afternoon Wednesday, with the potential for rain changing to snow showers during the afternoon and evening. Northern parts of the state could even get a light accumulation. A day that starts with spring temps and severe storms ends with snow. Not crazy or anything. :) 

NOW THE ARCTIC AIR... The cold air continues to filter in through the end of the week. Highs will drop in the 20's for many areas Thursday and Friday, and some spots by Friday morning will be back in the single digits! 

SNOW CHANCES... There may be a few flurries Thursday night, but the main system of notice is a clipper coming in Saturday. Some of the models hint at some snow accumulations during this time. Check out the latest GFS:

That model wants to bring 1-2" of snow across much of the Ohio Valley Saturday. Still waaaay too early to even know if this system is legit or not, so let's worry more about this when we get there. 

Lots of weather to get through. I will have more updates as needed on my Facebook weather page. If you haven't "liked" it yet, the link to my page is at the top of the website. Have a great night, and thanks for reading. 

Wild Weather Pattern For The Next Week!

Good evening. Finally most areas saw sunny skies today, and high temperatures getting closer to normal. The warming trend continues for the next several days, as a very active period of weather takes over. 

We have a tricky situation setting up for tomorrow evening. As precipitation arrives, temperatures at the surface from Indy northward will near freezing. It appears an icing event is likely. Northern Indiana is under a winter weather advisory.

I think Indy could see a period of ice from 4-8pm, but I think Indy may be lucky enough to dodge a bullet when it comes to the ice. *This is a set-up where a degree or two could make all the difference.* It is NORTH of Indy where major travel problems could occur during the evening and part of the overnight, especially the farther north you go. It sure doesn't take much ice to cause MAJOR travel problems. Please be on alert for this tomorrow afternoon/evening from Indianapolis and points north. Watch those thermometers as well, that will be key!

The warmer air takes over overnight tomorrow, and temperatures by early Monday morning will make it in the low 40's, ensuring anything that falls will be rain. The rain comes in waves for Monday, with a south breeze kicking in and highs soaring into the upper 40's north to middle 50's south. 

A STRONG warm-up on southerly winds takes hold on Tuesday, with Indiana positioned south of a warm front and east of a cold front, which is the prime spot to be in for warm temps! Temperatures soar to 20+ degrees warmer than normal across the state, which puts highs ranging from the middle 50's north to middle 60's in southern Indiana. 

While scattered showers/thunder are possible at anytime during the day Tuesday, I don't think it will be a washout. Attention turns to overnight Tuesday for intense heavy rains, high winds, and a few thunderstorms. Check out the wind shear with this system on the graphic below. Despite very little instability considering the front swings through during the night, these high winds aloft are sufficient enough to support a isolated damaging wind threat.

After that, temperatures start to tumble again. Look for temperatures starting to fall by Wednesday afternoon, with some scattered shower activity possible switching to snow showers Wednesday night, as harsh January reality comes rushing back in. 

An arctic air mass will take over again late next week, with highs temps back in the 20's, and lows in the teens. We may have to watch for some snow showers during this time as well. (Thursday-Saturday)

Here is the 7 day forecast. To say the next week is a roller coaster ride would be an understatement. Buckle up and enjoy the ride! 

Thanks for reading the blog. Have a terrific night. 

Latest On Friday's Snow Potential

I have been talking about a storm system late this week for several days now. A couple of days ago, it looked as if this could become a winter storm for the area. The models have backed off that idea since yesterday, and it now looks like light snow will be possible.

There are two systems passing through on Friday. One to the north, and one to the south. They look to remain separate, so in turn, this is not a big deal for us, but not a no show.

Model Analysis:
Let's start with the GFS, or American model. It is doing a good job with the system, in my opinion. It shows precipitation breaking out near daybreak Friday, then steady light snow lasting through early afternoon. The GFS for noon Friday actually shows widespread light to moderate snow falling over the state. 

Here is what the model shows for snow accumulations:

Next, let's look at the NAM. Here is what the model shows for noon Friday.

There is a pretty big difference between the GFS and NAM. The NAM keeps the two systems separate like all the other models, but it wants to keep much of central Indiana totally dry. The model spits out light accumulations for northern and southern Indiana, and central Indiana right in between the two systems staying dry. 

The European model paints a general inch of snow across the entire state.

My thoughts: When forecasting, it is important to use common sense, notice trends such as what weather model(s) have been more reliable as of late, along with pattern recognition. The GFS has actually done a pretty good job here recently, and the European always does a good job. So based on those two models, it looks plausible that light snow accumulations on the order of 1-2" looks likely for Friday. The NAM model is the outlier for my forecast. *Just because we are talking light accumulations, doesn't mean travel won't be greatly impacted. With arctic air still in place, surface temperatures are very cold, and all snow that falls will stick. I think slick roads are likely when the snow hits Friday, even if it's just light flurries coming down at times. *


Timing: Snow flurries look to begin during the pre-dawn hours of Friday, 4-7 am, then several hours of steady, light snow look likely from 8am-1pm. This will be a very fast moving system. 


Thanks for reading, have a great night. God bless! 

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Extremely Cold Air - Snow Chances This Week

EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES...

The arctic air continues to move into the Hoosier state. The temperatures over the next few days will be the coldest in two years, and a couple of mornings will be dangerously cold factoring in wind chills. How do wind chills as low as 15 below zero sound? That is certainly possible by tomorrow evening and night. Temperatures tonight fall into the teens, stay there all day tomorrow, then the combo of clear skies and lighter winds set the stage for the extreme arctic cold Tuesday morning. Lows could fall close to zero degrees. Highs on Tuesday will slowly make it into the teens, but back in the single digits Tuesday night. Get ready to put your furnace in over-drive!! 

SNOW CHANCES...

While flurries are possible off and on between now and Tuesday night, accumulations will be little to none, and shouldn't  cause any travel problems. 

The area with the biggest snow chance will be extreme northern Indiana. The lake-effect snow machine will get going, and some areas like South Bend, Goshen and points northward could see several inches if the bands set-up just right. 


Somewhat milder air should try to work in during the day Wednesday, with more tolerable high temperatures in the 20's. This now leads to the fun part of the forecast. The potential for accumulating snow! 

A storm system is brewing Thursday into Friday. This has been on the models for a few days now, but the models are struggling with the track, and how much cold air. The models are notorious for pushing out arctic air masses too quick. I think the models will trend a bit colder and farther south with the track as we get closer. This storm has the potential to bring ice, and several inches of snow to the state. The current model runs would suggest it would get warm enough for a rain/snow/ice mix on Thursday, then a switch to all snow overnight Thursday into Friday. Here is the area where I think the highest chances are for a decent snowfall for now. That may need pushed south or even north a bit as we get closer. 

I will have updates on that system over the next few days. It needs to be watched CLOSELY. Behind that system, another decent shot of cold air appears likely to begin next weekend. 

Thanks for reading. Have a great night, God bless. 

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