LATEST ON SEVERE WEATHER TODAY

Good morning! It's a little hard to believe heavy rain and severe storms are in the forecast right now, as it is a bright and dry start to the day! BIG changes are on the way later today, and here is the latest...


I wanted to update you with the latest chances for severe weather. Here are the latest maps from the SPC....

Notice there is a 5% tornado risk for areas south of Bloomington and Columbus this evening. The reason why is that there is going to be quite a bit of spin in the atmosphere, and changing wind directions above the surface later today, which is critical for tornadoes to develop. Obviously, damaging winds will be the highest threat across southern Indiana, with a decent threat for large hail as well.


*UPDATE* - As of this blog typing, the SPC has shifted the slight risk farther north, to include portions of southern Morgan, Johnson, and Shelby counties. This means many areas south of I-70 are now under the risk for severe storms. While I think the majority of severe weather will be south of Bloomington and Columbus, a few severe storms are possible as far north as Martinsville, Franklin, and Shelbyville. 


I will have many updates on facebook today. When warnings are issued, I will post all warnings on facebook, and I may even do live blog updates this evening if they are needed.


The timing for severe weather looks to be from 4pm to midnight. 


Stay tuned, and have a great day!

SEVERE WEATHER RISK TOMORROW - HEAVY RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS!

Good evening. I hope everyone got outside on this TERRIFIC weather day. Quite a change from the hot weather over the past week, as we have cooler, dry air in place. 


This will pave the way for the chilliest night in quite some time,  and yes, you may need to get the light jacket in the morning. Lows will range from the middle 40's north to the middle 50's south. Open the windows and shut off the ac!


Big changes on the way tomorrow. Clouds will quickly take over around daybreak, with widespread rainfall and strong storms south moving in during the afternoon and evening. This system will also drag a warm front up near the Ohio River. This means southern Indiana (south of Bloomington and Columbus) need to be on the lookout for severe storms tomorrow evening, as there is a slight risk for severe weather across southern Indiana, with a severe outbreak possible along and south of the Ohio River. Here are your severe storm forecast maps for tomorrow...

Track of the upper low is key for the severe weather risk. Should the low move farther north than expected, more parts of Indiana would be at risk for severe storms, which is definitely something I will monitor closely!


The severe risk for southern Indiana is concerning, because there is an elevated risk for some spin ups tomorrow, as there will be quite a bit of spin aloft. Here is a look at the wind speed just above our heads (1 mile above the surface) Thursday afternoon. Notice winds in this layer will be about 40 mph, and there will be changes in wind direction which is critical for tornadoes to develop.

Here is a look at instability values tomorrow. Notice little or no instability across central and northern Indiana, then a drastic increase in instability once you head south of Bloomington and Columbus:

I will watch this severe threat carefully, and will have many updates on facebook tomorrow. This is NOT a widespread outbreak for Indiana, but all folks in southern Indiana need to stay tuned to the local forecasts and weather radios tomorrow afternoon and evening.


The other story will be the widespread rain. .75-2" of rain is likely between now and Saturday. Notice the white shaded area across northern Indiana, this is where up to 2" of rain could fall. The rest of the area still looks to pick up to 1". Farmers all over Indiana will be very happy! 

If your making outdoor plans for the next few days, tomorrow afternoon and evening will be a washout. By Friday, the dry slot moves in, with the majority of the rain tapering away during the day. A clipper like system may bring more scattered showers Saturday. High temperatures will range from 58-78 north to south tomorrow, 60's Friday, then near 70 Saturday. That's right, below normal temps for once!!


I don't see any real hot weather returning anytime soon.


Stay tuned for severe weather updates tomorrow. Thanks for taking the time to check out my blog, have a great night.

Big Changes On The Way!

Good evening, and happy Memorial Day. I want to say a big THANK YOU to all the brave men and women who have served and fought for our freedom today. This has certainly been one of the hottest Memorial Day's on record, as we hit the lower and middle 90's again today, third day in a row of 90's. But, changes are on the way!


A cold front is working towards the state tonight, with a band of showers and storms across western Illinois...

This line should move across the state between midnight and 9am tomorrow, but this line will likely be weakening, so this won't be a big-time rain for many areas, but some areas could see up to 1/2". 


Sunshine and breezy conditions will resume for tomorrow afternoon, but it will feel a bit better! Highs will reach the middle 80's, with humidity dropping through the afternoon.


Wednesday looks GORGEOUS with sunny skies, and highs between 73-82. Humidity will be very low. Perfect yard-working conditions.


Changes will move in Thursday-Saturday, as a slow moving cut-off upper level low moves across the area, bringing widespread showers and MUCH cooler conditions. Rain looks to slowly work in later Thursday, and may stick around through early Saturday. Some thunderstorms are also possible in southern Indiana during this time, depending on the exact track of the system. Temperatures will also go WAY down during this time, only in the 60's and 70's for highs, with the coolest days likely being Friday and Saturday, when we may struggle to get out of the 60's! Yup, that's right! Here is the HPC rainfall totals for the next 5 days. This rain will be a BIG welcome, as things are drying out quickly!

Have a great rest of your evening!

HOT, HOT HOT!

Our heat wave is in full swing here in the Hoosier state. Highs today ranged from 90-95. The humidity was high, but not oppressive (trying to look at the positives). :) I think the humidity will be higher tomorrow and Memorial Day, so if anything, it will feel hotter than today! Check out my predicted highs for the next couple days...


Sunday: 96 Heat index: 98-102


Monday: 92 Heat index: 95-100


Thousands of people will be headed out for the Indy 500, and wow, it will be a scorcher!! Remember to stay hydrated, slow down out there, and avoid direct sun for long periods. Remember, sunburn can increase your chances of getting heat illnesses. I am not saying that the heat should keep you from going to the track tomorrow, just make sure your prepared!!


Memorial Day will be another hot and humid day, but there is about a 30% chance of a pop-up storm. Much like yesterday, most areas won't get a drop. The better storm chances arrive Monday night and early Tuesday, as a cold front moves into the region. There will be about 50% coverage of showers and storms during this time. On the map below, you may notice the enhanced area of showers and storms across the southeast coast, that will be from Tropical storm Beryl.

For Tuesday and beyond, temps will cool down nicely each day. Low 80's Tuesday, 73-81 Wednesday, then 70's to even 60's for the end of next week, as a decent storm system slowly works across the area. This COULD bring us MUCH NEEDED rain later Thursday through Saturday. 

This forecast will be subject to change, as the track of Beryl will have an impact on this forecast. It does look likely though that much cooler air and a more active pattern could be on the horizon. 


After that, we may heat up again around June 5-12, with 80's (even some 90's) may try to return. 


Despite the ridiculous heat for now, at least we have much cooler air in the long-range forecast. :)

DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND!

Good evening. For much of the state, it was a hot and VERY humid day! Highs ranged from the upper 80's to low 90's. Even right now, it is still in the lower 80's out! Those temps will only slooooowly drop to the low-middle 70's overnight, as the air remains very humid.


While there was a chance of storms today, most areas have seen no rain, with much of the activity being along the front in north-central Indiana. This is where we have a clash of air masses. Northern Indiana is experiencing a dry and comfortable air mass, while central and southern Indiana is feeling the tropical air mass, with all the humidity. Here is a look at radar, you can see the storms forming north of Indianapolis, along the front.

That front will begin to work northward tonight as a warm front, with the heat and humidity taking center stage all weekend long!


Here is the weekend forecast! Does the word hot even say enough for this forecast? Whew!

Make sure you are prepared for the heat. Remember, it's still early in the season, so we aren't accustomed to heat of this magnitude. Here is a great link for heat safety tips: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

Here are some interesting facts. If my predicted high for Sunday is correct, it will not only make the hottest Indy 500 ever, but will tie for the highest temperature ever reached in May in Indianapolis. That record was set 101 years ago! 


The NWS has made the right call by issuing a heat advisory from noon tomorrow through 8pm Sunday. Here is their statement.....

* TEMPERATURE: HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 90S FOR
  SATURDAY...AND EVEN WARMER HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
  AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT HEAT INDICES WILL
  ALSO BE QUITE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

* IMPACTS: THOSE PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND
  SHOULD TAKE EXTRA CARE TO AVOID SUNBURN AND DEHYDRATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR
LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.

Finally, here is the 7-day forecast. Despite the oppressive heat this weekend, a big cool-down is on the way for the second half of next week. Some models hint at highs in the 60's next Friday, believe it or not!!

Have an awesome and blessed Holiday weekend. Stay cool, if possible. :) 

TRACKING HOT TEMPS - WATCHING THE TROPICS!

Good afternoon. Sorry about my lack of blog/facebook weather updates! The blog will become alive again since my summer break starts tomorrow. :)


Anyway, the heat has arrived. Current temps are running in the middle to upper 80's, with sunshine and windy conditions. From here on out, it's only going to get hotter, and if the forecast is correct, this will be the hottest Indy 500 EVER. Now that's just incredible.


The main feature in the short-term is a cold front that will try to move towards the area tomorrow. This will help create more cloud-cover, with a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. As has been the case, only a few areas will actually get wet, more areas won't see a drop. It will be a hot and muggy day if your headed out for Carb Day at the track, highs will hit the upper 80's. 


That same front lifts north of the area Friday night and Saturday, as the heat wave arrives! Here is your Memorial/Race weekend forecast....

Remember to stay hydrated and slow it down out there! Remember to never leave small children in a car, even if it's just for a few minutes. Best advice is to go swimming! I'm sure many people will be hitting the lakes this weekend!


A front will move in the area around Tuesday, bringing storm chances and MUCH cooler temps to the area. We may be in the upper 70's by next Wednesday! 


Tropics Update: We already had the first tropical storm of the season last weekend (Alberto) and now I am watching a system just off the southeast U.S. coast. This circled area could become Beryl in the next 48 hours:

This to me definitely looks to form into a tropical storm, perhaps a stronger one, for the weekend. 


The NAM model actually takes this storm directly to Savannah, GA later Sunday. This is definitely interesting because Savannah hasn't had a direct landfall in more than 100 years.


If you have travel plans down there this weekend, definitely keep an eye on the local forecasts. 


Despite all this pre-season activity, the National Hurricane Center predicts a near-normal season, with 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.


Thanks for stopping by the blog, have a great evening!