SEVERE WEATHER RISK TOMORROW - HEAVY RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS!

Good evening. I hope everyone got outside on this TERRIFIC weather day. Quite a change from the hot weather over the past week, as we have cooler, dry air in place. 


This will pave the way for the chilliest night in quite some time,  and yes, you may need to get the light jacket in the morning. Lows will range from the middle 40's north to the middle 50's south. Open the windows and shut off the ac!


Big changes on the way tomorrow. Clouds will quickly take over around daybreak, with widespread rainfall and strong storms south moving in during the afternoon and evening. This system will also drag a warm front up near the Ohio River. This means southern Indiana (south of Bloomington and Columbus) need to be on the lookout for severe storms tomorrow evening, as there is a slight risk for severe weather across southern Indiana, with a severe outbreak possible along and south of the Ohio River. Here are your severe storm forecast maps for tomorrow...

Track of the upper low is key for the severe weather risk. Should the low move farther north than expected, more parts of Indiana would be at risk for severe storms, which is definitely something I will monitor closely!


The severe risk for southern Indiana is concerning, because there is an elevated risk for some spin ups tomorrow, as there will be quite a bit of spin aloft. Here is a look at the wind speed just above our heads (1 mile above the surface) Thursday afternoon. Notice winds in this layer will be about 40 mph, and there will be changes in wind direction which is critical for tornadoes to develop.

Here is a look at instability values tomorrow. Notice little or no instability across central and northern Indiana, then a drastic increase in instability once you head south of Bloomington and Columbus:

I will watch this severe threat carefully, and will have many updates on facebook tomorrow. This is NOT a widespread outbreak for Indiana, but all folks in southern Indiana need to stay tuned to the local forecasts and weather radios tomorrow afternoon and evening.


The other story will be the widespread rain. .75-2" of rain is likely between now and Saturday. Notice the white shaded area across northern Indiana, this is where up to 2" of rain could fall. The rest of the area still looks to pick up to 1". Farmers all over Indiana will be very happy! 

If your making outdoor plans for the next few days, tomorrow afternoon and evening will be a washout. By Friday, the dry slot moves in, with the majority of the rain tapering away during the day. A clipper like system may bring more scattered showers Saturday. High temperatures will range from 58-78 north to south tomorrow, 60's Friday, then near 70 Saturday. That's right, below normal temps for once!!


I don't see any real hot weather returning anytime soon.


Stay tuned for severe weather updates tomorrow. Thanks for taking the time to check out my blog, have a great night.