Spring Pattern Moving In!

Good evening, and thanks for reading today’s edition of your weather blog! One thing for sure, the one thing we haven’t been lacking this week is sunshine. This April sunshine has made the below normal temps much more tolerable. The big-time warm-up I have been talking about for days really starts to kick in tomorrow, and likely lasting for quite a while!

Tomorrow is OPENING DAY at Victory Field. Tomorrow will be a wonderful day of weather with some sun and passing cirrus clouds. We add nearly 10 degrees from today’s high temperature, all thanks to a change in wind direction – from the south! Highs range from 55-60 in most areas. If you’re headed out to the game tomorrow evening, the weather will be great. Grab the jacket and you will be in good shape. Here is your first pitch forecast:

The nice weather trend continues into Friday. Sunny skies expected for the last day of the work week. A back-door cold front will move into northeastern parts of the state, so this will mean a “slight” cool-down for those areas, only in the 50′s. The southwestern half of the state should make it near 60.

Now to the weekend. Saturday looks ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS, with the warmest high temp of the entire year so far! I am talking about high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60′s, in response to a low pressure system northwest of the area. Winds around a low pressure system are counter-clockwise, so you can see the perfect set-up to bring in those very spring-like temps.

That system brings a front towards the area Saturday night and Sunday, with a chance of some scattered showers. There will be lots of dry hours too along with the mild air hanging on.

Next week looks to stay on the warm side, at least for the first half. A stalled boundary will be stuck right over us, with rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms. There will be dry hours mixed in each day to still enjoy the spring air, but there could be some pretty impressive rain amounts between Monday and Thursday. 1-3″ appears possible. The return of rain, mild temps, and humidity should REALLY cause the trees to begin to blossom, so be on the look for that as well.

Here’s your 7-day planner.

Thanks for reading, have a great night.

Afternoon Forecast

The latest look from downtown Indianapolis shows a nice looking day with partly cloudy skies. Mostly sunny skies are expected south of Indy this afternoon, with more clouds to the north. Northeast Indiana may even see a couple of sprinkles or flurries. Highs will hit the 40′s, but the wind will make it feel several degrees colder. I will have an update later today on what to expect over the next several days, which includes a big warm-up.  Have a great day!

Outlook Through Second Week Of April

Tonight-Tomorrow:

Scattered showers possible overnight into tomorrow morning. Rain amounts look generally light with most areas around 1/4″, an isolated 1/2″ in the heavier pockets. Easter Sunday afternoon looks nice with mixed clouds and sun, with highs right around where they topped out today. It will become breezy during the day, so it may “feel” a bit cooler. Still not a bad day. 

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY:

The second front rolls through Sunday night into April Fool’s Day, with a few scattered snow/rain showers. The big story will be the
very cold air that moves back into the area. Highs on Monday will only top out in the range of 38-44. BRRR!

Tuesday-Friday:

Starting on Tuesday, sunny skies return with a warming trend thanks to the higher sun angle this time of year and the trough beginning to lift away from the area. Tuesday will be cold with highs similar to Monday, but 45-50 Wednesday, 53-57 Thursday, and 56-61 Friday. There will be a system tracking south of the area next Thursday/Friday, but how far north it goes is still in question. Right now it looks to remain far enough south to keep things dry here, with just an increase in clouds.

Next Weekend & Beyond:

It looks like TRUE spring weather is going to move in during this time. Highs by next weekend will be in the 60′s, perhaps 70 by next Sunday. The following week looks to have highs in the 70′s daily, maybe flirting with 80 a day or two.

 I sense a shorts and flip-flops alert ahead.  It’s about time some warmer weather starts to show up, right? Thanks for reading, have a great Easter Sunday.

Warm Up Continues - More Chilly Air Next Week?

Good afternoon. We have FINALLY broken out of the snowy/cloudy pattern we have been in over the past several days. In fact, you will find it hard to find any clouds in the sky today. That high sun angle took us from the mid 20′s this morning to the upper 40′s right now. Very nice day shaping up.

Tomorrow looks even warmer, but there will be added clouds with a shower chance southwest of a Bloomington to Terre Haute line tomorrow, as a system slides by to our southwest. I think the best chances of getting these showers will be closer to Vincennes and Evansville, but a few showers could make it as far north/east as Terre Haute/Bloomington.

Now to the Easter weekend, and I have GOOD news! The weather is looking spring-like, and drier than it did a few days ago. Saturday will feature some sunshine around with a gentle southeast breeze boosting temps in the upper 50′s! It will feel great. A storm system passing by will bring some showers to the area Saturday night, lasting into Sunday morning for some areas, but dry weather is expected for everyone by Sunday afternoon. Any Easter egg hunts you may have planned should be in good shape for the most part.

Don’t get too used to it, a strong push of chilly air is expected again through the middle of next week. Some areas may not get out of the 30′s for HIGHS by next Tuesday. A warming trend is expected for the second half of next week.

Thanks for reading, have a great evening!

Interesting Weekend Forecast - Heavy Snow??

Thanks for stopping by my new blog! Wow, what a cold start to spring to say the least. Indy dropped to 16 this morning, with “feel-like” readings in the single digits. That would be considered very cold and below average in January, yet alone in late March! I would do almost anything right now to forecast a huge warm-up, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon. Yes we do warm in the 40′s and perhaps 50′s for our southern areas Saturday, but that’s only a temporary warm-up and still is below normal – so that doesn’t count!

A storm system is expected to arrive on Sunday, and this one has potential to bring heavy snow to parts of Indiana and the Ohio Valley. While the models are slowly getting into better agreement, the track is still not set in stone by any means.

The WPC puts out snowfall risk maps 3 days in advance, and shows the probabilities for at least 4″, 8″, and 12″. Here are these probability maps…

These maps are likely to have some changes to them over the next couple of days. Those could shift farther north or south depending on where the TRACK of the system is.

Now let’s look over a few models and what they are showing. Before I show the snowfall potential from the models, please remember that these models do not take into account the warmer surface temps and strong radiation this time of year due to higher sun angle. Since it looks like quite a bit of the snow will fall while it’s daylight, keep those factors in mind!

GFS (shown below) has remained more consistent today on a farther south trend. The latest run of this model has several inches of snow from Indy southward, with a sharp cut-off to the north.

NAM (shown below) is almost identical to GFS on the track, but is heavier on amounts.

The Canadian & European models (not shown) are farther north with the track putting central and northern Indiana in the bullseye for snow, with much less for southern parts of the state. That can’t be ignored, but I think we are in a pattern that should favor the farther south track that the GFS & NAM are showing.

I decided to post my “early” thoughts on POTENTIAL snow accumulations on Sunday.(below)  I cannot stress enough how much of a key factor the TRACK of the storm is. Even a slight shift in the track will ultimately change how much snow falls in your backyard.

Model runs tomorrow afternoon/evening should get the first good weather balloon sampling of the storm, which means the models should begin to all come to a consensus and I should be able to give better details on how much snow will fall in your area. Thanks for reading and following my weather updates, have a great night!

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Messy Pattern!

Several systems to track over the next several days. Some with rain, some with snow. Location will be key on all these systems.

We have a disturbance kicking off widespread convective snow showers this afternoon across the entire Ohio Valley. A lot of this is melting because of it being daytime, and mid-March, but the heavier bursts are putting down quick coatings. Watch out for rapidly changing conditions when your out this afternoon. These will dissipate after sunset. 

The next system arrives later tomorrow. This one continues to trend colder - so light snow is looking more likely with this one for more areas. Here is the latest GFS for tomorrow evening. The blue line is usually the main rain/snow line.

With that said, the track and the timing is KEY for potential snow accumulations for your area. Right now, this looks to move in by the evening rush hour. Most of this will be melting on contact. As dusk approaches, the snow may begin to stick on grassy surfaces, but the system will also begin to exit near that time. Right now, I think the best chances of getting a quick inch or so would be areas along and east of I-65. Will have to fine-tune this forecast tomorrow, but overall-not a huge deal anyway.

We try to get some warmer air in here Friday, with the return of some sunshine. A temperature range from near 60 in southern Indiana, low 50's central, and upper 40's north looks good at this time. Friday is also the St. Patrick's Parade in downtown Indy. The parade starts at 11:30. Temperatures will probably be in the low 40's at that time, along with a breeze. Dress accordingly, but it could be worse! It will actually be very warm across the Plains, but just when it looks like it's headed our way, it never makes it here as a cold front moves in from the northwest flow keeping that warm air from ever really surging into Indiana. The map posted below is the GFS 850mb temperature forecast for Friday. I circled the much warmer air mass just missing us to our west. 

The weekend will feature a big temperature difference north to south across the state. Highs could range from the 50's in southern Indiana to the 30's in northern Indiana, as a front stalls out over southern Indiana. A wave of showers looks possible early Saturday, then a more organized system Sunday into Monday to affect mainly the southern part of Indiana. The GFS indicates the northern part of the precip shield could bring some light snow mixed with the rain to parts of southern Indiana Sunday night. European is the farthest north and says a MAJOR snow storm for central and northern parts of Indiana. It's an interesting solution and because of the model's accuracy, I don't want to totally ignore it. (Map posted below is the GFS late Sunday).

The next issue is the main storm system out of all of later Monday into Tuesday. Widespread rain looks likely Monday afternoon, then perhaps changing to light snow late Monday night. 

So there's the forecast to the best details as I can. I hope that helps you to better plan the next several days! Thanks for reading.

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