Quick December Recap - Latest on Super Soaker Weekend Ahead - MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE!

Good evening.  Hard to believe there has been snow on the ground since December 5th!!  It has been a remarkable start to meteorological winter, with the entire state at a much faster than normal pace of snowfall.  Here in Martinsville, my snowfall total for the season so far stands at 9.4".  Already well on our way to the average 25.9" for the season.  Another side of the story has been the COLD.  Some areas went nearly two weeks without going above freezing.  That of course is why the snow has been sticking around.  The deep snow pack helps reserve the cold air.  When you have a decent snow pack develop, it acts like a freezer, helping keep temperatures colder.  

Check out the current snow cover across the U.S. (courtesy of WSI).  A decent snow pack is still present across most of Indiana, but there is going to be a huge dent in that as we head towards the weekend, as some MAJOR changes are about to occur.  

When you step outside tomorrow morning, you will notice milder temperatures.  With a steady south flow all night, even with clear skies, temperatures will remain a touch above freezing for most of the night.  A good 15-20 degrees WARMER than this morning.  Temperatures tomorrow will continue to warm up.  There will likely be a big temperature spread from north to south.  Areas with the most snow cover in northern Indiana may struggle to get out of the 30's, while southern Indiana gets well into the 50's.  Most of central Indiana should get well into the 40's.  Remember the deeper the snow depth in your area, the tougher it will be for temperatures to really respond.  This could also lead to a fog issue in northern areas tomorrow, with that warmer air flowing over the cold, snow covered ground.  The good news is that most areas should remain rain-free.

The rain chances begin by Thursday night, and this will be the beginning of a VERY WET period of weather.  Rain will be likely throughout the day on Friday, although it should not be all that heavy.  There will once again be a huge temperature spread, from low 40's north to middle 50's south.  

It is going to be an extremely wet weekend, with major, major flooding possible.  By time we get into Saturday, a huge storm system will be gathering strength and approaching the area.  Expect rain and rainfall rates to really go up by Saturday afternoon, with the heaviest rain setting up Saturday evening through noon Sunday.  Rainfall rates could be extremely heavy.  Check out the map for 7am Sunday.  The flood gates of the Gulf of Mexico are wide open, pumping in an enormous amount of moisture aimed right here into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Between Friday and Sunday, a good portion of the state will be seeing anywhere from 3-5" of rain laid down, with local amounts of 6" or more likely.   This is EXTREMELY concerning!!  Parts of the state still have 6-8" of snow on the ground,  as we melt that, and add an enormous amount of water on the already water-logged ground, this is going to create major problems.  I think this could be historic flooding.  If you lived in a flood-proned area, now is the time to prepare.  Even areas that don't normally flood could be affected.  Here is the 7-day rainfall potential map from WPC.  That is A LOT of rain!

Based on the latest track of the storm, it now appears this will only be a rain event for all of Indiana.  There could be some backlash wintry stuff late Sunday in northern Indiana, but even that would not be much.  I can't believe it after nearly 2 weeks of snow on the ground, but the chances of a white Christmas look very low.  The good news is that the pattern quiets down for a good part of next week, so other than a few flurries, Christmas Eve and day look pretty nice, with seasonably chilly temperatures.  

I will continue to update on the flooding potential.  Thanks for reading!