Thursday, December 5, 2013

WINTER STORM ON THE WAY - LATEST FORECAST

Good morning.  Our first winter storm of the season is on the way.  The system appears to be coming in 2 waves.  One tonight, and another one tomorrow.  The one tomorrow will be the stronger one that will bring the brunt of the snow accumulations.  

Precipitation looks to break out and become widespread after 4pm today.  It will likely fall as a wintry mix in central Indiana, with rain south.  As the evening progresses, the rain/snow line will be shifting south.  Important to note travel this evening (by 6pm and after) could be a big mess with the sleet/freezing rain mixed with the snow.  The best chances for freezing rain will be across the southern part of Indiana tonight.  By midnight, most of central Indiana should be plain snow, possibly with some sleet still mixed in.  Southern Indiana will hold on to a wintry mix longer through the night, but should go to all snow as the overnight progresses.  Watch out for a glazing of ice with snow on top of it to make travel and getting around slick and hazardous.  About 2" of snow/sleet accumulation is possible across central and south/central Indiana by tomorrow morning.

Round 2 arrives during the day tomorrow.  After a brief lull early tomorrow morning, snow will return for a good part of central and southern Indiana.  There is a likelihood that snow will be quite heavy at times south of I-70.  Several inches will accumulate throughout the day.  Roads will be snow covered and hazardous.  

The snow finally winds down by 7/8pm, but not before dumping heavy snow over southern Indiana.  Here is a look at my updated snowfall potential map.  I want to point out that the snowfall forecast in central Indiana is quite difficult, because a big question mark remains for how far north the precipitation shield can get tomorrow.  There will likely be a sharp cut-off.  My latest forecast is not much different from the one I posted last night, but I did add a 3-6" band over Indianapolis and points directly south/east.  There may be a pretty good cut-off northwest of the city.  


My Facebook page is the place to be for plenty of updates on this storm! If you haven't given it a "LIKE" yet - be sure to do so! - https://www.facebook.com/Nathanwx

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